I’m not completely set on my release schedule for rankings, but I plan to be recording my Day 2 Rankings with some select Day 3 coverage on Saturday, which should lead to either a Saturday night or Sunday morning release. I will be finishing up my Devy Rankings that weekend for Devy Drafters, and that will be released by Monday morning. Finally, to finish part 3 of the rankings marathon, the goal is to have a preliminary Day 3 show released next week.
For all this, stay up to date and subscribe to the Substack and Podcast.
Draft Week 2025
Mock Draft (1 of 1) w/ Notes
This is my “odds based” mock draft, with a few tweaks. This is by no means a confident projection in terms of every pick, but most of the conversations between the show and the notes will cover MOST of the picks. There will obviously always be surprises like Michael Penix Jr. going to the Falcons last year.
Cam Ward, QB, Tennessee Titans
Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Cleveland Browns
Abdul Carter, EDGE, New York Giants
Will Campbell, OL, New England Patriots
Anything could happen, but based on the odds and the standard bets being allowed by books, the top 4 is about as locked as it gets. The app I use to track opened up Top 5 Pick Parlays for the first time, and each of the top 4-5 options has the same top 4, with only the 5th pick changing. There could be a shake-up – a team could even change their mind between now and then – but there seems to be a very strong likelihood as of today that these are the top 4 picks.
Mason Graham, IDL, Jacksonville Jaguars
Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Armand Membou, OT, New York Jets
Jalon Walker, EDGE, Carolina Panthers
The board does open up a bit here, but for my official predictions, I am going with the chalk picks. There is a late push for the Jaguars to consider Ashton Jeanty themselves. There is also a lot of conversation about the Raiders and Jeanty being a smokescreen, potentially with them eyeing Membou themselves. The two most likely picks by the Jets seem to clearly be Membou or Warren at this point. That doesn’t mean they will go in that direction, but the signs point that way. If Walker falls to 8, it seems that this would become a fairly likely favorite. However, EDGE is a premium position, and there are a number of higher end talents that will not make it to the second round. In this case, there is at least some potential for these EDGE rushers to go higher and disrupt picks 5-7, and ultimately pick 8. Right now, for an odds based mock draft, this is nowhere near likely enough for a projection. But EDGE rushers being drafted or traded up for seems to be the most likely disrupter in the 5-7 range.
Tyler Warren, TE, New Orleans Saints
One of the trickiest picks on the board at this point, there are a few odds suggesting that Shedeur Sanders is the most likely pick, and this is one of the picks that goes against those odds the most. That said, there is a trend away from QB for the Saints in the odds, and Sanders himself is a significant underdog to the Saints, even if he is the most likely by the plurality. QB is a very high likelihood here, but I’m going with the Saints passing on QB, which leaves the decision between Warren and the best EDGE on the Saints’ board. Here, the Saints take Warren.
Kelvin Banks Jr., OL, Chicago Bears
Perhaps this is wishcasting, but the only position more likely for the Bears to draft first is Running Back. Trading up for Jeanty and getting Jeanty to fall to 10 are both possibilities, and if Jeanty falls to 10, it seems like a situation where the Bears would be locked on that pick. Without Jeanty on the board though, OL is the second most likely position, and Banks sticks out as the most likely player to translate to having LT upside on the board in this range. Josh Simmons has the talent, but is very unlikely to be drafted this high due to medicals.
Walter Nolen, IDL, San Francisco 49ers
Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Will Johnson, CB, Miami Dolphins
Colston Loveland, TE, Indianapolis Colts
Mike Green, EDGE, Atlanta Falcons
Shemar Stewart, EDGE, Arizona Cardinals
Mykel Williams, EDGE, Cincinnati Bengals
Defensive tackle seems like a clear area of need for the 49ers, and with 3 IDL likely to go in the first round outside of Graham (Nolen, Harmon, Grant), the 49ers could likely take their favorite here. The Cowboys are one of the only teams reasonably likely to take a WR, though it is unclear if they would prefer McMillan or Golden. For the show and my official mock, I’m going to stick with McMillan, but these two could easily be flipped. This may be too early for Will Johnson, but particularly if it is realistic that they let Ramsay go via trade, it would seem like the right time to potentially target an area of need with a player who was originally mocked in the top 10. There are other needs for the Colts, but like the Cowboys, they are one of the only teams strongly favored and particularly strongly favored for a pass-catching position. All of these teams would be spots for an OL if any of the next few OL go a bit earlier, and like mentioned above, the EDGE rushers could be more sought after than this mock suggests. These EDGE rushers go 1-2-3 at the end of this section, and ultimately I would probably project this to be the floor for each of these players, with the exception of Mike Green due to his off-field issues. That might be an odd fit with the Falcons, but they are at least doing substantial homework, and so I have these Edge Rushers going in this order. For the Bengals in particular, IDL might be a preference over EDGE, and if these three are off the board in particular, the Bengals like the 49ers might set their sights on the Nolen/Harmon/Grant trio, or whoever may be left on the board. The Falcons are one of three teams (not including teams drafting at the very top like the Titans) to have odds at -200 or stronger for an individual position, with them considered very likely to add at EDGE or IDL. These are grouped together, but I do think mocking one of the EDGEs to the Falcons is a necessity in an odd-based mock.
Grey Zabel, IOL, Seattle Seahawks
Jihaad Campbell, LB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Omarion Hampton, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Shedeur Sanders, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Matthew Golden, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
First, the more I think about it, the more I suspect that if they are picks 12 and 22, Golden will be the first one drafted. Golden is a hard player for me to place, as I only have strong opinions about four positions, and Golden is one of the few players that I am actively lower on than what it seems is the current NFL consensus. 18 and 20 are perfect spots for Golden, and it may make the most sense for him to go there as BPA, but both of those slots also have other common mock picks and positional biases that make me want to include Zabel and Hampton picks in an odds-based mock. Similarly, it is tough to find spots for LB in an odds-based Mock, and Tampa has the best odds to draft a LB by far, so with this seeming like the favorite landing spot for Campbell, the Bucs take Campbell here at 19. Obviously the blockbuster pick here is the end of the fall of Shedeur Sanders. He could very well go at 9, and there is some chance Pittsburgh passes on QB here and targets the IDL regardless. Pittsburgh is a fairly likely landing spot for the Nolen/Harmon/Grant trio as well. With their choice of QB in this mock, something I think is actually fairly plausible, I see the Steelers taking QB and in this case Shedeur Sanders at 21.
Maxwell Hairston, CB, Green Bay Packers
Nick Emmanwori, S, Minnesota Vikings
Tyler Booker, IOL, Houston Texans
Jahdae Barron, CB, Los Angeles Rams
Malaki Starks, S, Baltimore Ravens
Donovan Ezeiruaku, EDGE, Detroit Lions
This is the point of the draft where I have very little if any player-team confidence, but there are a few things to gather from some odds. The Packers, Vikings, Rams, and Ravens have some need in the secondary or at least likelihood on odds to take a secondary player, and a good number of them fall this far. The O/U on Barron suggests he will be drafted more highly than this, but he is an excellent fit here. These teams all also have OL needs, so there are some intriguing fits with either Booker, Simmons, Connerly, or anyone else who may jump into the first round.
Alongside the Falcons mentioned earlier, the Texans (OL) and the Lions (EDGE/DL) are the other two teams who are most strongly favored to take a position, so they are locked in my mock draft to taking those positions. They could have a BPA situation, but those three team-position fits would be my locks outside the top 3. I originally had Josh Simmons to the Texans, but I am increasingly concerned he falls further due to injury.
Emeka Egubka, WR, Washington Commanders
Derrick Harmon, IDL, Buffalo Bills
Josh Simmons, OT, Kansas City Chiefs
[TRADE] Jaxson Dart, QB, Cleveland Browns
No compensation on Trade because this is a one year, one round mock draft, and the Browns could be moving up from 33. Dart is -380 right now to go in the 1st, and so it made sense to slide him into the first going to a team that I find to be very likely to get a QB within the first 50-75 picks. I don’t know if the Browns target Dart, but I do think it is very possible their second pick is a QB, and a trade up would not be surprising at all. IDL to the Bills would be a perfect fit if Harmon or even Grant fell this far. They have their choice between the two here. In particular, the Steelers seem like a variable that could affect the Bills here as they have a clear IDL need and bias in many mock drafts. In this mock draft, going Shedeur Sanders kept IDL on the board. Josh Simmons is still favored to go to the first round, and this would be an incredibly high upside pick for the Chiefs, who are reasonably favored to take some OL in Round 1. The most awkward fit by the odds is Emeka Egbuka. While the Deebo acquisition makes it so that drafting a WR in Round 1 is not necessary, this is a team where both of their top 2 WRs are fairly old. Emeka Egbuka is a player who is favored to go in the first round and could grow with Daniels over time.
As of recording, no player taken in this first round mock had worse than -200 odds to go in the 1st Round. Kenneth Grant (-400) is the only significant favorite excluded. Grant is considered more likely than Dart (-380), Hairston (-280), and Egbuka (-200). Because Vegas significantly oversells the lines, Josh Conerly Jr. (-180) and James Pearce Jr. (-130) each have underdog lines as well, but none of the players drafted are considered by these odds as being less likely to go in the first round. There are 35 players favored to go in the first round.
Aside from those 35, the most narrow underdogs are dominated by fantasy relevant players who are not likely to go in the first round, but are in the very next tier: Mason Taylor (+120), TreVeyon Henderson (+130), Jalen Milroe (+150), and Luther Burden III (+180) make up 4 of the next 5 most likely First Round picks. Mason Taylor is specifically getting some 11th hour buzz as a 1st Round Pick.
//
RB Rooms
Highest Need: Denver Broncos, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Las Vegas Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers
Honorable Mention: New England Patriots
While some players like Javonte Williams or Jaylen Warren may still have some sign of life with new opportunity, these top five rooms are teams where even an early-4th Round RB could feasibly challenge for the majority of work by the end of the season. The Patriots are not in the top five and do have a fairly recent investment in Stevenson and Gibson, but I would consider Stevenson’s 2024 fumbling issue combined with a history of it in his past prior to be a significant enough reason to put the Patriots very near the top tier of need. I do not believe they are going to operate that way though, and it does seem like Stevenson may be more secure than this listing suggests.
Future Need: Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, New Orleans Saints, Houston Texans, Minnesota Vikings || San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals
All of these teams have a clear #1 for the 2025 season, but all of these teams have a #1 that is either significantly old for the position or on a one-year contract. The 49ers and Cardinals are listed last because, while Benson did not play much or particularly well, each has recently drafted someone who at least theoretically could be viable. I do not see that as much from the other five rooms.
Wild Card Need: New York Giants || Chicago Bears, Kansas City Chiefs, Washington Commanders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans || Cincinnati Bengals
Perhaps I’m too much of an apologist for Tyrone Tracy Jr. to not put the Giants in the top category, but he was promising enough for a rookie in my eyes to bump them down to Wild Card Need. That said, it does seem like there’s a strong sentiment that the Giants and Bears in particular could add to their RB rooms at a high investment. The Bears as well are still listed here as Swift played 17 Games, had over 1,300 total yards, is under contract, and is not particularly old. In general, this would align the Bears in a very different tier from the high need tier, but it does seem like there is a clear desire from the FO to improve at the position. The Chiefs, Commanders, Jaguars, and Titans all have even two viable RBs, though there is some doubt if they have a “guy” on their current roster who is healthy and able at the highest level. The Bengals likely need depth, and there is some risk with Chase Brown as well, but he probably deserves to separate himself at least as a player who plausibly has earned a further chance, particularly on a team that has so many more pressing needs.
Need a +1: Miami Dolphins, Carolina Panthers
The Dolphins will be a consensus here with Achane, but I do also believe that Hubbard and Dowdle are better as two-down backs. With a pass catching room as poor as Carolina’s, I would like to see them invest at least a later complimentary pick on a player like Brashard Smith or LeQuint Allen who could help the QB a bit more.
The Top 10: Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Indianapolis Colts, Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks
//
Have a good Draft Week,
C.J.
