Draft Weekend Day 3

Time for some early Big Boarding. Everything is subject to change, and there are still rankings dilemmas to sort out. Here is where my board stands right now, remembering that Rankings are more important than tiers generally speaking. SF, no TEP.

• Tier 1A

  • 1.01 Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders

• Tier 1

  • 1.02 Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers

  • 1.03 Omarion Hampton, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

  • 1.04 Quinshon Judkins, RB, Cleveland Browns

  • 1.05 Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Jacksonville Jaguars

  • 1.06 Cam Ward, QB, Tennessee Titans

  • 1.07 TreVeyon Henderson, RB, New England Patriots

• Tier 2

  • 1.08 Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • 1.09 Matthew Golden, WR, Green Bay Packers

  • 1.10 Kaleb Johnson, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

  • 1.11 R.J. Harvey, RB, Denver Broncos

  • 1.12 Colston Loveland, TE, Chicago Bears

  • 2.01 Tyler Warren, TE, Indianapolis Colts

• Tier 3

  • 2.02 Luther Burden III, WR, Chicago Bears

  • 2.03 Jaxson Dart, QB, New York Giants

  • 2.04 Jayden Higgins, WR, Houston Texans

  • 2.05 Tyler Shough, QB, New Orleans Saints

  • 2.06 Kyle Williams, WR, New England Patriots

  • 2.07 Jack Bech, WR, Las Vegas Raiders

  • 2.08 Tre Harris, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

  • 2.09 Jaylin Noel, WR, Houston Texans

• Tier 4A

  • 2.10 Jalen Milroe, QB, Seattle Seahawks

  • 2.11 Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Cleveland Browns

  • 2.12 Dillon Gabriel, QB, Cleveland Browns

  • 3.01 Tai Felton, WR, Minnesota Vikings

  • 3.02 Mason Taylor, TE, New York Jets

  • 3.03 Terrance Ferguson, TE, Los Angeles Rams

  • 3.04 Elijah Arroyo, TE, Seattle Seahawks

• Tier 4B

  • 3.05 Pat Bryant, WR, Denver Broncos

  • 3.06 Savion Williams, WR, Green Bay Packers

  • 3.07 Isaac Teslaa, WR, Detroit Lions

Tier 1 features the players I want to leave the draft with in 2025. These 7 all have a tantalizing appeal that combines ceiling and floor. From early rankings, it seems ADP is likely to flip Tetairoa McMillan and Luther Burden III. The landing spot was not discussed much as the Panthers were loudly signaling defense, but this is an ideal landing spot for McMillan. Additionally, McMillan’s draft stock has been eroded by football character concerns that at this point seem like one of the draft’s true smokescreens; with Jacksonville discussing McMillan at 5, Dallas seemingly wanting McMillan at 12, and Carolina selecting McMillan at 8, it seems a number of teams did not struggle with giving McMillan an elite evaluation. McMillan now has a pass-focused QB, amazing volume situation, and his physical size and athleticism give me confidence in the floor of McMillan. Alternatively, the Jags price tag on Hunter clearly suggests they are valuing him as two players. The idea he could work “full-time” on defense is astonishing, but it lowers the floor, and if he actually does it full-time, likely lowers the volume ceiling. Remember, if Hunter becomes an incredible efficiency player but the volume suffers from the situation, that could disproportionately affect Hunter’s fantasy value. He is the most spectacular and interesting player in this draft, but leagues don’t give credit for unicorn points. Fantasy is a game, and Hunter may be the more enjoyable player to roster and the least enjoyable player to watch come to fruition on another team, so maybe that does push Hunter up in this fairly even tier. But as a pure objective asset, I struggle to meet the market on Travis Hunter given that there are 6 other prospects in this class that I consider to have a substantially high ceiling AND a floor which is not challenged by the idea of playing defense.

Quinshon Judkins over TreVeyon Henderson is at least somewhat controversial, but probably nowhere near as much as the first point. Coming into the draft, Judkins was the higher RB on my board for the NFL while TreVeyon Henderson was my higher rated RB for fantasy. In my RB room rankings, I highlighted the Patriots specifically as being subjectively in the top tier of need. With both Ohio State RBs going to a situation with major need in the top 40, these are both fantastic fantasy draft picks. Judkins is an early declare RB with very few holes in his game. In a volume-based game, I would easily project Judkins to dominate the pairing in touches. Henderson will step into a role where he has massive pass catching ability and big-play upside for an Offense that has a lot of upside itself through Drake Maye, but ultimately the ceiling is equivalent in fantasy. Henderson is often called higher ceiling, but that is an opinion that mostly manifests per touch. If I knew the two players would only ever receive 15 touches in a game, Henderson would be the clear pick. In reality, with Judkins more likely to receive a high volume of touches in Cleveland due to the combination of the team and his own bell-cow style, I lean towards that high volume potential.

Tier 2 features players that I want to love and could easily see being near-elite players (for fantasy), but each player in this tier has at least something substantial that gives significant pause. Emeka Egbuka’s pause comes from the most controversial place: his situation. However, WRs outside of the elite range — even in the first round — have very high bust potential. Egbuka is ranked the highest because his ability and track record at the position suggest the best floor, and my personal stance on WRs (elite traits are overrated in seeking elite outcomes at WR) suggests that Egbuka does have both floor and ceiling in this range. Matthew Golden goes to a mixed room and has analytical red flags in his career production, but his situation and upside make him a decent value in the late-1st. And while the Packers room is still a bit congested, Watson suffered an injury that removes him from the equation most likely in 2025, Wicks was downright awful, and even Jayden Reed had substantial drop issues. So while there are names in this room, it is a room starving for someone to take the top mantel.

R.J. Harvey is probably a bit higher on most rankings. While I do acknowledge the value of the 2nd Round draft capital and a situation ranked in my top-5 most needing at the RB position, Harvey did not hit that first tier of draft capital which would vault him over the late-Day 1 WRs, and he does still have significant profile red flags being a 5’ 8” RB who will turn 25 before the 2025 Super Bowl. Ultimately, time will tell where Harvey’s ADP is, but in general as someone who has done rankings for a while, it is hard to “feel” low on a 24.5 YO RB you’re willing to put into the First Round. Kaleb Johnson, despite being a 3rd round pick and just slightly outside the top-75 picks, is in the same draft capital tier with Harvey on my board. Given his far higher pre-draft grading, early declare age, physical size to handle a workload, and seemingly perfect fit with a Pittsburgh team with a desire to run the ball, Johnson is a clear first round pick on my board, and a player I have slightly over R.J. Harvey.

The TEs are ranked in this tier because they are TEs. I don’t love the situations, but it has more to do with being TEs. Ultimately, Loveland & Warren’s situation would likely impact their TEP rankings more, as neither player goes to a situation where short-term volume in TEP can create a higher volume floor in a similar way to Brock Bowers in 2024. Given the investment into Burden as well, Warren may ultimately have the better landing spot due to his easier path towards being the #1 and particularly #2 pass-catching option on this offense.

Tier 3 features players similar to Tier 2 in terms of high ceiling but increasing risk. The big gap between the two tiers is that, in Tier 3, I would expect the strong majority of prospects to fail. Tier 2 and even Tier 1 may feature failures, but I would expect failure to rarely occur in Tier 1 and be closer to 50/50 at worst in Tier 2. The odds tell us that Tier 3 and beyond will bust at a rate far higher than 50%. Burden is my top player in this tier, and while that may seem controversial given his landing spot, if you would have told me before the draft that Burden had gone top 40, I would have expected him to be at the end of Tier 2. This landing spot with very few volume guarantees is a major reason that Burden is in Tier 3 at all, but ultimately the argument for Burden would have always been ceiling-based. That argument has not changed today. If he becomes the player he was once considered to be, Burden could be good enough to succeed in any situation.

I alluded to this on the previous post, but Jaxson Dart’s draft cost — while a huge win for the Giants — is a significant negative for his fantasy ceiling. If the Giants and Falcons switch trade packages, meaning that the

Giants trade their 2026 1st for 25 or 26, Jaxson Dart would likely be above the TEs. I am conscious of the idea that I’m overrating the trade package itself, but they fundamentally stuck to a trade package that would be very easy to turn and burn in one year. The Giants should be near the favorite to have the worst record in the NFL next year with a brutal schedule that features their own division (twice), the NFC North, and the AFC West. Considering that Dart is also tied to a regime that would likely be fired should the Giants fail to outperform their 2025 expectations, I simply do not like this sandwich spot for Jaxson Dart. Alternatively, while Tyler Shough did not go until Day 2 and Pick 40, it is hard to not consider them roughly equivalent by their combinations of draft capital, landing spot, and potential long term situation. In general, the late-1st and early-2nd are grouped together on my Draft Capital board as representing a high likelihood to get an opportunity, and a very low likelihood to be successful. While Shough was lower on my pre-draft board and much older, he goes to pair with a new, young HC and an entrenched NFL GM in Loomis. Dart was higher on my pre-draft board, but frankly talking through the process, Shough is in a better position to deliver fantasy value on investment by far. I am tempted to rank Shough over Dart, though Dart’s athleticism and rushing upside shouldn’t be completely undersold here either.

I do not have strong feelings about the ordering of Higgins, Williams, Bech, Harris, and Noel. This is the tightest tier grouping (Higgins is getting a bit of a bump for having much better draft capital), and I will likely need to debate the ordering here with a bit more nuance on the Podcast. Williams is getting the second largest bump as he has my favorite landing spot; I am skeptical about Diggs’ value and volume between his age and recent injury. Noel is hurt by going to a team that spent significantly more draft capital on his CFB teammate, Higgins. Tre Harris’ ranking will be the most controversial, and he is in an excellent position to succeed. I do have persistent questions about Harris’ ability to win consistently with NFL routes or explosive separation ability. Once again, this grouping will be the most closely examined, though I do think the Tiers are more important than the rankings.

Tier 4 is the only tier that is likely to have Day 3 players. There is some outside possibility for a RB in the Early 4th in a great landing spot to enter Tier 3, but the most likely team to make that happen given their need (Cowboys) also do not have a 4th Round Pick. These players are by definition long shots, which is why the highest upside long shots like physical rushing freak Jalen Milroe & production beast Harold Fannin Jr. sit at the top of this tier. All of the Day 2 TEs are in this tier, and those players deserve a significant boost in TEP, likely just one tier up into Tier 3. Dillon Gabriel does not have the physical upside, but he finds himself in a phenomenal short-term spot with a reasonable chance to start games in 2025. Tai Felton had a Day 2 grade on my board, which is why he is above the other 3 WRs. Those 3 WRs are the easily lowest graded three players on my board. Pat Bryant is the most intriguing of the three. At WR, betting on pure athleticism seems to be the worst long term strategy. Savion Williams should likely be a hybrid RB, not a WR, and Isaac Teslaa is an incredible athlete who, in his second year at Arkansas at 22 YO, had 28 Receptions, 545 Yards, and 3 TDs. Teammate Andrew Armstrong had 70+ Receptions and 1,000+ Yards in the same offense. These are the profiles that will likely never end up on my team in fantasy.

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The big part is over. Get ready for a rankings blitz that includes 2025, 2026, and 2027 Rankings.

C.J.