As mentioned on the show today, I’m going to be including these write-ups alongside the Tuesday/Thursday shows. The shows themselves will still cover a few more topics and the write-ups will likely continue to focus on the future Dynasty and CFB portions of the show, but this inclusion will allow anyone who prefers to read to be able to receive these posts by subscribing to the substack. The version on the substack may be a bit more unfiltered as the later edits for social media may get a bit more time for polish. Not every part of this write-up will make it to those social media posts. The show/article will not usually go this far into detail, but with no NFL to talk about, it made sense to spend a bit of extra time on the Week 1 Risers/Fallers.
All that said, here are my Risers, Fallers, and more takeaways after Week 1.
Biggest Positional Risers (2025)
QB: Miller Moss, USC & Cameron Ward, Miami (FL) via Washington State
RB: Nicholas Singleton, Penn State
WR: Antonio Williams, Clemson
TE: Mason Taylor, LSU & Colston Loveland, Michigan
After spending most of 2023 injured, Antonio Williams got his 2024 season off to a solid start. Williams may be a surprising player to start the “Risers” section given his overall mediocre line, but Williams looked crisp and dominated the rest of his team in production against a tough Georgia secondary. It is a bit early, but Williams was a player who was an easy top-5 WR after his 2022 season, and he does appear to have health on his side again. Similarly, Nicholas Singleton showed flashes that his disappointing 2023 might soon be in the rearview. Singleton’s 2022 was largely based around huge explosive runs, but in 2023 Singleton did not have a single carry of over 30 yards. In his first game of 2024, Singleton had two 40-yard carries, and if that explosive player has returned to College Football, he has a very good chance of being a First Round fantasy pick.
It is important to note that I don’t quite have the same overall confidence in the QBs here. Singleton, Williams, Taylor, and Loveland all have a far more reasonable chance of being top tier prospects at their position. While that is possible of course for these two QBs, they more than anyone else on this list need to continuously perform well to make that First Round argument. Miller Moss was a late addition to the list after having a stellar performance against LSU on Sunday night, and while Moss’ traits including his size and arm don’t necessarily stand out, he has zip on the ball that if he can sustain performances like Sunday, the NFL will likely take note. Moss did not just complete 75% of his passes for a 10.5 YPA, but the USC QB also had a high number of Big Time Throws via PFF due to his ability to place the ball perfectly several times in this game. While Cameron Ward did have a bad interception early in the game, it was the only significant mistake for Ward, and he even managed to limit his sacks against pressures in this game. Ward has always had a great playmaking ability with his arm and mobility, as well as an ability to escape dangerous situations, but he has been too mistake prone thus far in his career. If he can continue to limit or even eliminate the mistakes, Ward could be a player like Jayden Daniels who evolves in his 5th year of starting at the Collegiate level.
TEs are fickle so I’ll keep it short, but both Mason Taylor and Colston Loveland showed that they will be focal points for their teams. Mason Taylor did not have the biggest stat line, but he seemed to be the most common player targeted behind Kyren Lacy. Colston Loveland had a very high proportion of his team’s receiving yards, and it seems like the Michigan offense will be funneled through Loveland early in the season. Loveland gets a big opportunity in Week 2 against top-ranked Texas.
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Future Risers (2026): Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame ; London Humphreys, WR, Georgia via Vanderbilt
There have been quite a few teams this off-season where despite not having an identifiable player, we knew that the team had considerable talent if someone stepped up and stood out. One of the first players to potentially take that step was Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love who showcased both explosive play ability as well as the ability to generate missed forced tackles. He did not have a huge volume of carries so the impact was limited, but as this is only the first game of the second year of his career, there seems to be a lot to buy into right now with Love. For the Georgia pass-catchers, while London Humphreys only played 5 snaps in a dominating win against Clemson, he was perhaps the WR for UGA who flashed the most. Humphreys was very highly regarded by the 24/7 transfer portal rankings and showcases an excellent size and speed combination. There are a lot of potential NFL talents with more experience above Humphreys right now, but if he can earn a more consistent role on the team, Humphreys is the pass catcher on Georgia that I believe has the most intriguing upside.
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Biggest Games (2025): Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State & Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
There’s not a lot to cover in detail here that goes beyond the simple headline: Jeanty and McMillan set school records for dominant performances in Week 1. Neither defense gave much resistance or is particularly talented on paper, and so given the fact that McMillan was a top 2 WR and Jeanty a top 4-6 RB in my early rankings, there isn’t much actual rising going on here. These are just two spectacular players, with the only concern being with Jeanty’s size translation to the NFL level as someone who plays in the Mountain West. Jeanty is one of the best pass catching RBs I have evaluated over the last several years and gets the opportunity to prove himself this upcoming week in a game against Oregon. McMillan is reminiscent of players like Drake London, Nico Collins, and Mike Evans, and McMillan has already led the FBS in freshman and sophomore receiving yards his first two seasons.
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Freshman (2027)
QB: Dylan Raiola, Nebraska
RB: Nathaniel Frazier, Georgia & Taylor Tatum, Oklahoma
WR: Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State & Ryan Williams, Alabama
If you do not play in a Devy league, you will obviously be waiting a long time for players of the 2027 class to be truly relevant, but there were a few freshman performances in week one that absolutely deserve to be discussed. Dylan Raiola likely chose Nebraska in part to give him the opportunity to start for a Big Ten program, and Raiola has not yet played a power conference opponent, but his first appearance in the FBS went about as well as you could have expected. While Colorado does not have the best defense, Nebraska & Raiola will be up against the Buffalos next week in a major match-up. For the RBs, while Taylor Tatum was the most efficient RB for Oklahoma, the bigger story for this RB class was Nate Frazier who took full advantage of the opportunity created by injuries and suspensions in front of him. With Trevor Etienne likely returning to the line-up in Week 2 as the starter, it is hard to know what Frazier’s role is for Georgia in 2024, but Frazier looked dynamic and drew comparisons to former UGA RB D’Andre Swift.
These performances were impressive, but the true strength of this 2027 Freshman class on paper has been and continues to be a WR class that is deep and has fascinating names up top. Jeremiah Smith is perhaps the best HS prospect we’ve ever seen. It is still early, but it would not surprise me if he was as dynamic a receiver this year as Emeka Egbuka who I still have ranked as a top 5 Receiver for the upcoming 2025 class. Smith had 6 receptions, 92 yards, and 2 TDs in Week 1. Also making an immediate impact, the 17-year-old freshman Ryan Williams caught 2 passes for 139 yards and 2 TDs, breaking the Western Kentucky defense twice. Williams re-classified to enter College Football a year early, so if he maintains health and builds a profile worthy of the NFL Draft by 2027, Ryan Williams will enter the league with the potential to play his entire rookie season at 20 years old. Aside from these two, Ryan Wingo, Cam Coleman, and Perry Thompson in particular showcased some signs of a bright future for Texas and Auburn.
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Big Name Players (2025)
QB: Drew Allar, Penn State ; Quinn Ewers, Texas ; Carson Beck, Georgia
RB: Ollie Gordon II, Oklahoma St.
WR: Elic Ayomanor, Stanford
TE: Oronde Gadsden II, Syracuse
No one here is “rising,” but a few names are worth discussing. Allar, Ewers, and Beck all managed their games and victories well, but each of them will be more defined by their ability to do the high difficulty things with consistency. We saw very few high difficulty throws between them in Week 1. Ollie Gordon II continues to show a rare ability as a pass catcher for a RB his size, though I continue to have questions about his explosive ability and general translation to the NFL. Gordon’s performance against South Dakota State was solid overall, but not ultimately all that efficient particularly outside of the receiving work. Elic Ayomanor did not have a game that quite gets to the threshold of a riser, but he had over 100 receiving yards, a good proportion of his team’s yards, and the Stanford receiver continues to make a case that he should be a top 50 NFL Draft pick. After missing 2023 due to injury, Oronde Gadsden II is back and hoping to build on a fairly impressive 2022 campaign for a receiving TE.
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Deeper WR Names (2025): Harrison Wallace III, WR, Penn State ; Deion Burks, WR, Oklahoma via Purdue ; Tai Felton, WR, Maryland ; Pofele Ashlock, WR, Hawaii ; Jimmy Horn Jr., WR, Colorado
Penn State and Drew Allar desperately needed a pass catcher to emerge for the 2024 season, and so far it seems they may have found that player in Harrison Wallace III. Additionally, Deion Burks was the talk of Oklahoma in the off-season, so while we haven’t seen too much yet, a nice 3 TD performance to start the season is very big. In general, the names here are more of an honorable mention caliber. These are players I’m hoping to see more of and build consistent performances, but I am not yet confident they will be drafted highly at all in fantasy.
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Fallers
Conner Weigman, QB, Texas A&M & Aidan Chiles, QB, Michigan State via Oregon State
Donovan Edwards, RB, Michigan
On Saturday night, Conner Weigman’s season against Notre Dame got off to about the worst start it possibly could have. While it is only one game and we do not want to overreact, the chances that Weigman would be the 2025 QB riser the Fantasy community is looking for took a massive hit. Weigman missed most of 2023 due to injury and has a lack of experience, so particularly if he is on track to be a member of the 2026 class, Conner Weigman will have a lot more football to play and prove he is a better QB than he showed Saturday, but if you wanted Weigman to be an early declare and a member of the 2025 class, that expectation took a substantial hit this weekend.
While Weigman at least gets the excuse of getting to play a dominant defense, Aidan Chiles shows up on this list after bombing in his first appearance as the MSU QB against Florida Atlantic. FAU is below the caliber of talent Chiles will be playing every week in the Big Ten, and so struggling at this level brings up some concerns. Once again, I don’t want to overreact to anything, but in this case I do think it is worth thinking about how Aidan Chiles has perhaps become overhyped as someone standing in for players like Arch Manning, Dante Moore, and Malachi Nelson, all members of the 2023/2026 QB class who were once regarded extremely highly but are not even starting for their respective teams in year two. Chiles does have NFL traits and was a highly regarded prospect, but not to the extent of someone like Nico Iamaleava or Arch Manning. Given where some pre-season rankings featured Aidan Chiles, it might be time to at least pump the brakes on Chiles as a potential first round pick for the 2026 class.
Finally, for Donovan Edwards, this was supposed to be the season he has been waiting for. But despite a lack of Blake Corum, Edwards’ season did not start as planned. Edwards showcases questionable vision and does not seem to generate many broken tackles. He has flashed in a receiving role and particularly as a downfield pass-catching option out of the backfield, but Edwards at this point clearly profiles as a 5th-6th round scatback at the very best, and he will need to make substantial changes to alter that perception.
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The goal for Tuesday/Thursday shows is to release in the morning, though particularly on Thursdays the show may release in the early afternoon. Thursday’s piece will cover Texas/Michigan, Tennessee/NCState, Colorado/Nebraska, BoiseState/Oregon, and a few more games, so keep an eye out for that on Thursday.
Thanks,
C.J.
(#43) CFB Week 1 Deep Dive + Risers, Fallers, and ‘25-’27 Prospect Stock Watch