On the Audio Version Today:
· Run-through of reactions for each and every* NFL Game and team (*MNF will be covered Thursday)
· Summary of key takeaways
· Deeper discussion of weekly risers
I’m going to try and continue to get these things out closer and closer to Tuesday and Thursday morning, but the goal will be to be out before noon on these days at the latest. There are some good thoughts throughout the week for the NFL and deeper thoughts on the CFB players, but the audio show was a bit disorganized this week trying to figure out how I’m going to put everything together moving forward. The NFL section of the audio show is a bit longer than I expected, but I’m thinking roughly 45-50 minutes on each league per show. I haven’t had quite as much edit time on the Risers below as I’d like, so apologies if there are any typos or anything worse below.
Top names on my Risers are almost always focused on players I believe are moving into trajectories to be highly drafted in the upcoming 2025 Draft.
Week 2 Risers
RISER OF THE WEEK
Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise St.
Playing at Boise State means that Ashton Jeanty does not get many opportunities against teams with the depth of talent that Oregon has particularly on the defensive side of the ball, which makes these games even more important for players like Jeanty. Following up his 20 Carry, 267 Yards, and 6 TD performance in Week 1, Ashton Jeanty had 25 Carries, 192 Yards, and 3 TDs against Oregon. Jeanty is not the biggest RB, listed at 5’ 9” on the Boise State website, but he is explosive and dynamic in a way that should translate to the NFL field. While he has not been very involved in the passing game in 2024, Jeanty was one of the most effective pass-catching RBs in CFB his first two seasons. Between his true freshman and true sophomore seasons, Ashton Jeanty compiled 64 Targets, 59 Receptions, 739 Yards, and 5 Receiving TDs. Jeanty’s own interviews are a better resource for this discussion, but some of Jeanty’s multi-faceted ability may come from an atypical background. A part of a military family, Jeanty spent 3 years during his late middle school and early high school years playing American HS Football in Italy, and in this arena, Jeanty was a dominant forced asked to play everywhere on both sides of the ball. Combined with his 5’9” stature, the atypical background also likely contributed to his lower prospect hype and status. But after three years of College Football, Ashton Jeanty appears like a player who should be drafted highly enough to make him a First Round pick at the very least in 1QB leagues and possibly SF leagues as well. Draft range will likely at least be an apprehension for Jeanty until we get closer to the Draft itself as being a 5’9” RB from the Mountain West will likely work against Jeanty and perhaps put more pressure on events like the combine.
FIRST ROUND RISERS
Nicholas Singleton, RB, Penn State ; Evan Stewart, WR, Oregon via Texas A&M
Singleton appeared on this list last week, and he is here again not necessarily because of the quality of the game, but because the traits on the field are leaving the poor taste of 2023 behind. While Jeanty has been the more impressive collegiate RB by far, it is actually Singleton who has been positioning himself as the RB1 in the class at least on my lists, though to be fair to Jeanty he makes a very strong argument for RB2 or even RB1. While Singleton did not have a 30+ yard carry in 2023 after having so many in 2022, so far in 2024 the explosive plays are back. Singleton had yet another 40-yd carry this past weekend, making 3 such carries in his first two games. Singleton is the most physically talented RB in College Football, and physical talent is of extreme importance at RB compared to even other fantasy positions.
While Evan Stewart needs a good season more than he needs a good game, the Oregon Ducks WR had a few stellar moves on the outside to create space on Saturday, showcasing his explosive separation ability. He’s this far up the list more because of his general profile, but it may be actually too soon to call him a Riser to this extent. Aside from just the broad nature of wanting to see Stewart put together a full season in one of his three years of college, something that will help him greatly in predictive production models, Stewart also needs to showcase that he can consistently win in a multi-faceted position like WR. Stewart statistically and from my own observations has never shown particularly strong hands, contested catch ability, or YAC/missed tackles forced ability, and so these things would probably be more apparent if he could compile the 1,000-1,200 yard season. In general, we would like to see that kind of a season or better from a top prospect who should play at least 12 and possibly 15 or 16 games if he remains healthy.
POSSIBLE ROUND 1 RISERS
Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas ; Dylan Sampson, RB, Tennessee
There was a lot to like in the performance of Quinn Ewers against Michigan, particularly when it came to his pocket mobility and creation of plays downfield that were off script. These are extremely important advancements for Ewers, as they will help to solidify him as a potential first round QB. However, Ewers is still struggling or simply outright not attempting passes in most of the same areas that concerned me going into the season, so I hesitate to give him as much credit as I see from some others. On the season, Ewers is 36 of 42 (85.7%) on passes within 9 yards of the LOS. He is 8 of 17 (47.1%) on passes 10 yards downfield or further.
One of the most exciting true risers of this list is Dylan Sampson, the Tennessee RB. I wanted to separate Sampson from the other RBs, because I believe the upside here is substantially higher particularly for a game like Dynasty. Sampson’s first two performances, in which he’s totaled 32 Carries, 256 Yards, 5 TDs, as well as 6 Receptions on 6 Targets for 66 Yards, have occurred while Sampson is only 19 years old. Sampson will turn 20 this weekend the same day Tennessee plays Kent State, and if he is selected in 2025 on Day 2, he will be the youngest Fantasy eligible player selected on Day 2 in at least the last three years (’22-’24). This is not the sole reason that Sampson is ranked this highly by any means, but it is impressive that a player so young is performing with explosive play ability and grading very highly as a receiver out of the backfield. While the top 10 RBs of this class will be a tough group to wedge into, Dylan Sampson would likely make my top 10 RBs for 2025 as of today, with room to rise further and further towards the top.
OTHER 2025 RISERS
RB
Desmond Reid, Pittsburgh via Western Carolina ; DJ Giddens, Kansas State ; Kaleb Johnson, Iowa ; Jamarrion Miller, RB, Alabama
One of the biggest risers from out-of-nowhere is Desmond Reid, the Pittsburgh RB who had over 100 Rushing AND 100 Receiving yards in a come-from-behind victory against Cincinnati. The size might be restrictive (listed 5’ 9”, 175 lbs), but Reid has made a major impact in his first experience in the FBS. DJ Giddens, Kaleb Johnson, and Jam Miller all have much better size, with potential 3-down upside. Giddens continues to flash specific pass-catching upside as one of the more featured pass-catchers for Kansas State. Miller has not yet played a substantial opponent, but it seems like the true junior has emerged as the clear #1 RB for Alabama.
WR/TE
Tai Felton, WR, Maryland ; Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State ; Oronde Gadsden II, TE, Syracuse
Maryland WR Tai Felton followed up an impressive Week 1 with yet another high-end performance to start his Big Ten season against Michigan State. Through two games, Felton has been targeted 24 times with 18 receptions, 324 yards, 3 TDs, and 5.14 Yards per Route Run. Tyler Warren and Oronde Gadsden are two TEs situated to be prominent pass catchers for their college teams.
FUTURE RISERS
2027
Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State ; Ryan Williams, WR, Alabama ; Ryan Wingo, WR, Texas ; Cam Coleman, WR, Auburn ; Bryant Wesco, WR, Clemson ; T.J. Moore, WR, Clemson ; Dylan Raiola, QB, Nebraska ; D.J. Lagway, QB, Florida
It is way too early to know exactly what this class will look like in three years, but the 2024 Freshman / 2027 NFL Draft candidates once again showcased rare instant-impact ability. The threshold for a high-end freshman in year one is actually fairly low, and most of these players have either already crossed these minimal thresholds or are approaching them quickly. Jeremiah Smith & Ryan Williams seem like the biggest two early standouts from the WR class, but the early returns on this class appear tremendous. For the QBs, Dylan Raiola did not have the best numbers, but lead Nebraska to an easy win, while D.J. Lagway made the case against an FCS opponent that he provides Florida with more upside to win football games against a tough schedule.
2026
Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame ; Aidan Chiles, QB, Michigan State via Oregon State ; Nico Iamaleava, QB, Tennessee ; Eli Holstein, QB, Pittsburgh via Alabama ; Makhi Hughes, RB, Tulane
From raw statistics, Jeremiyah Love does not belong on this list after being sparsely used by Notre Dame in a loss to Northern Illinois, but digging through Love’s numbers, you have to wonder if they would have lost the game if Love were more involved. Love is a significant riser who blends size, explosive ability, and has broken tackles at an extremely high rate via PFF. Aidan Chiles did not have a great game, but he at least flashed some positives to go along with some mistakes, which is a significant improvement over the first week of the season where nothing went right for the 2nd year QB. Nico Iamaleava had a game similar to the one mentioned with Dylan Raiola above: if this were year three, we would probably nitpick it a bit more. Right now, it is nice to see Nico wet his feet with a dominating win against a top 25 team. I wouldn’t make much of his start yet, but Eli Holstein was a top 150 recruit for Alabama who transferred to Pittsburgh after failing to secure a starting role. With a 66.7% Comp%, 6 Passing TDs, and over 300 Passing YPG in his first two games as a true sophomore, Holstein deserves a mention on that raw accomplishment alone at this early stage of his career.
FALLER
Barion Brown, WR, Kentucky
Kentucky WR Barion Brown isn’t necessarily a “Faller” too much relative to his starting point this season, but he continues to fall from what was a quite promising start to his career in 2022. Towards the end of his true freshman season against Georgia, Brown compiled 10 Receptions for 145 Yards and 1 TD. In his 16 games against the FBS since this performance, Brown has only twice totaled 100+ Yards with 13 games under 50. This past weekend, Brown hit an all-time low with one screen target, no receptions, no yards, and no impact on the game outside of being distraction for the defense and a return specialist. His explosive ability as a return specialist probably helps his NFL Draft floor, but Brown is becoming more and more a player you should only expect to be a return specialist at the next level. He is still young, and Brown has a good amount of time even this year to prove this statement wrong.
BIG NAMES
Luther Burden, WR, Missouri ; Ollie Gordon II, RB, Oklahoma State ; Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado ; Drew Allar, QB, Penn State
I am not worried at all about the start of the season for Luther Burden. When we spend all our time thinking of the NFL, it is hard to fathom that teams might actually go into games already planning on how they will load manage their players. It is a tricky line to walk, but teams do manage their players work loads against Murray State and Buffalo, teams that Missouri has beaten by a combined 89 – 0 this season. To an objective point, Burden has barely run any routes this season, and while it is not the elite number you would hope for, does have a modestly productive 1.88 Yards / Route Run despite not having 100 Receiving Yards in 2 Games. Ollie Gordon II on the other hand is a player that I was lower on than consensus coming into the season, and so far in 2024 he has largely been the player I feared: through two games, Gordon has been largely ineffective between the tackles. He was modestly effective against an FCS school in South Dakota State, and then he was completely bottled up for 4 quarters of his game against Arkansas, breaking a couple of nice carries in Overtime. Gordon is a spectacular pass catcher for his size, but I question if he has the explosive capability to translate between the tackles at the highest level.
For Shedeur Sanders, the improvements in pressure-to-sack ratio displayed against North Dakota State largely evaporated against a team with even modest talent like Nebraska. For all his own talk throwing his Offensive Line under the bus, you have to wonder at this point if he lacks the sense of pressure to navigate regardless of the Offensive Line, and those continued issues with the media, teammates, and former players will create potentially legitimate questions for Shedeur Sanders that go far beyond the faux issues of glitz, glamor, and celebrity. Drew Allar continues to provide evidence that he will not be a QB for the 2025 Class. There are a lot of tools there, and perhaps he is the personality that wants to get to the NFL as soon as possible, but Allar fails to push the ball or make needed big plays, and I just can’t buy his evasion of turnovers on a surface level when that instinct has failed him in crucial moments. Just this week against Bowling Green, a brutal red zone interception late in the game could’ve easily cost Penn State one of its most embarrassing losses in program history, but the defense bailed Allar out once more. Allar needs to prove that when he avoids turnovers, it is an instinct that will translate as he continued to push the ball and become more aggressive. If he cannot become more aggressive, he likely will not make it at the next level.
//
Should have a preview post/show out Thursday.
C.J.
(#45) Big Review & Reaction Show #1: NFL Week 1 & CFB Week 2