There will be no NFL Notes on the Podcast Today. I’ll work to compile these reactions with the NFL Schedule this week. The podcast today is a roughly 90 minute discussion of this Big Board going #1 through 48, and there’s not a lot of fat on an episode like the one today. Thursday’s Substack will include the College Football Schedule and a 2026 Early Declare First Pass. The podcast on Thursday will cover all of these things, and will likely run a bit longer than the episode today.
FIRST 2025 BIG BOARD (October 29th, 2024)
Write-ups on players/tiers can be found below.
This class remains a stronger 1QB class than SF class. This can change if the QB profiles have strong end seasons, postseasons, draft processes, and ultimately get good draft capital, but I am not confident on an individual level with the QBs in this class. Likely we get 2-4 1st Round QBs, but I am approaching these QBs cautiously. The RBs in contrast are exciting and showcase significant upside. There are players ranked in the late-20s that I’m sure will have many quite upset that they aren’t a bit higher, but I have a clear top 6 RBs in this class as of now, and outside of the top 6, it is hard for several of these RBs to distinguish themselves at this point in time. The WR position is still defined more by ceiling than by floor. Between Hunter, Stewart, Williams, Bond, and Ayomanor we may have a strong number of early declare WRs. We also may only get 1 or 2 and a CB. There may also be no Brock Bowers in this class, but the top 2-4 TEs are looking quite good, and there is a depth to this class that exists beyond them.
Note: Always remember this is a one-man operation. Great effort has been taken to avoid omissions, but keep an eye on future posts for any amendments that might be necessary due to omissions.
Names in Bold are seemingly out of eligibility, which would suggest they are locked in as members of the 2025 NFL Draft Class.
Tier 1: Top Draft Capital, Top Talent
Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
Luther Burden III, WR, Missouri
*Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado
Tier 2: Near Top Draft Capital, Near Top Talent
Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State
Nicholas Singleton, RB, Penn State
Quinshon Judkins, RB, Ohio State
TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State
Tier 3: Top QBs, Top Tier RB/WR Upside, Top TEs
Cam Ward, QB, Miami (FL)
Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
Carson Beck, QB, Georgia
Evan Stewart, WR, Oregon
Trevor Etienne, RB, Georgia
Kaleb Johnson, RB, Iowa
Antonio Williams, WR, Clemson
Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama
Isaiah Bond, WR, Texas
Elic Ayomanor, WR, Stanford
Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan
Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
High Floor Veteran (23.5 Draft Age) WRs
Tre Harris, WR, Ole Miss
Xavier Restrepo, WR, Miami (FL)
Probable 2026 QBs Who Could Compete for QB1 Still in 2025
Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson
Drew Allar, QB, Penn State
Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU
Where 2025 1QB Drafts Could Get Really, Really Good
Jordan James, RB, Oregon
Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina
Ollie Gordon II, RB, Oklahoma St.
D.J. Giddens, RB, Kansas St.
Dylan Sampson, RB, Tennessee
Devin Neal, RB, Kansas
Other’s Top QBs ; Less Confident in Talent + Draft Capital
Jaxson Dart, QB, Ole Miss
Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas
Other Top Players
Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Bowling Green
Dane Key, WR, Kentucky
Jonah Coleman, RB, Washington
Damien Martinez, RB, Miami (FL)
Phil Mafah, RB, Clemson
Desmond “Dez” Reid, RB, Pittsburgh
Mason Taylor, TE, LSU
Ricky White III, WR, UNLV
Raheim “Rocket” Sanders, RB, South Carolina
Barion Brown, WR, Kentucky
Tai Felton, WR, Maryland
Jayden Higgins, WR, Iowa St.
Aaron Anderson, WR, LSU
Denzel Boston, WR, Washington
Elijah Sarratt, WR, Indiana
Jalen Royals, WR, Utah St.
Honorable Mentions: Conner Weigman, QB, Texas A&M ; Kurtis Rourke, QB, Indiana ; Jaydn Ott, RB, California ; Jamarion Miller, RB, Alabama ; Kyle Monangai, RB, Rutgers ; RJ Harvey, RB, UCF ; Kalel Mullings, RB, Michigan ; Donovan Edwards, RB, Michigan ; Tahj Brooks, RB, Texas Tech ; Branson Robinson, RB, Georgia ; Joquavious “Woody” Marks, RB, USC ; Kaytron Allen, RB, Penn St. ; Jarquez Hunter, RB, Auburn ; Lev’eon Moss, RB, Texas A&M ; Jaylin Noel, WR Iowa St. ; Germie Bernard, WR, Alabama ; Pat Bryant, WR, Illinois ; Zakhari Franklin, WR, Illinois ; Kaden Prather, WR, Maryland ; Pofele Ashlock, WR, Hawaii ; Kyren Lacy, WR, LSU ; Jack Bech, WR, TCU ; Nick Nash, WR, San Jose St. ; Antwane “Juice” Wells Jr., WR, Ole Miss ; Tez Johnson, WR, Oregon ; Isaiah Horton, WR, Miami (FL) ; Deion Burks, WR, Oklahoma ; LaJohntay Wester, WR, Colorado ; Jimmy Horn Jr., WR, Colorado ; Ja’Corey Brooks, WR, Louisville ; Noah Thomas, WR, Texas A&M ; Matthew Golden, WR, Texas ; Gunnar Helm, TE, Texas ; Jake Brinningstool, TE, Clemson ; Elijah Arroyo, TE, Miami (FL) ; Oronde Gadsden II, TE, Syracuse ; RJ Maryland, TE, SMU ; Luke Lachey, TE, Iowa ; Bryson Nesbit, TE, North Carolina ; Brant Kuithe, TE, Utah ; Eli Stowers, TE, Vanderbilt
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WRITE-UPS BY TIER
Tier 1: Top Draft Capital, Top Talent
It is important to note up front that last year, the top tier (at this time) also had 3 players, but for Superflex Leagues, I would rank all 3 of Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Drake Maye above this trio. Tetairoa McMillan remains my favorite as he has priors in high professional grades, has been consistently rated at the top of the class, and has no physical questions. Ashton Jeanty likely has the highest fantasy upside, but I have the most concerns about his NFL Perception through the most highly scrutinizing parts of the process. I would estimate Jeanty plays at closer to 5’ 8”, 205 lbs, and at this position, I’ll feel more comfortable with Jeanty once he is actually drafted. Even with Luther Burden III’s disappointing beginning to the season, I do not feel as worried ultimately about his draft capital or analytical floor. Burden still scores highly as an early breakout, early declare, has one elite season in the books, and still likely scores well this year in stats like Dominator. The adjustment for Travis Hunter will come down to what position he plays. While I understand some do not rank him as highly as a pure receiver, as a talent, if he chose to focus purely at the WR position, he would be a strong candidate for my 1.01. Wherever he ranks below that is an adjustment based on his theoretical role, which could easily include production that is not ever usable in Fantasy Football.
Tier 2: Near Top Draft Capital, Near Top Talent
The rushing production and efficiency dating back to the start of 2023 for Nicholas Singleton continues to give me some cause for concern, but for his grade that is largely being off-set by an emergence as a Receiver. Singleton caught his 4th Receiving TD this weekend and it was a contested catch on a man coverage route into the end zone coming from the Slot. Out of 160 RBs in the PFF Database to have at least 10 Targets so far this year, Singleton ranks 11th in PFF Receiving Grade. I’ve listed Singleton separately as the other three players in this tier are all Ohio State Buckeyes. At this point, I am not concerned by the lack of overall rushing output we’ve seen from Quinshon Judkins & TreVeyon Henderson, but it at least opens up the door in a talented RB class for others to enter this first tier. The OSU Offensive Line situation is also one to continuously monitor. OSU has had some substantial injuries, and against Nebraska this past weekend, neither RB could get much going. Still, Judkins caught a TD against Nebraska while Henderson has been a player for years as having at least potentially the highest tier physical upside. I don’t feel as strongly about placing these players here as I would like particularly with how consistently they’ve been here, but they are still in my top 7. Emeka Egbuka is the player in this tier that feels the safest, which is why he finds himself at the 4th spot. There are some physical reasons to question the upside, as well as the simple fact that he did not enter the draft last year and become an early declare, but as things stand now, Egbuka with proper draft capital could threaten as high as the 1.01 in the post-draft rankings.
Tier 3: Top QBs, Top Tier RB/WR Upside, Top TEs
This tier could potentially be multiple tiers, but we are still early in the process and so it makes some sense to keep it a bit open. All four QBs who I rank highly enough to potentially be 1st Round QBs AND believe will declare for the 2025 NFL Draft are in this tier. Others likely have a greater gap between the top 3 QBs even if they maintain the same order, but each of these QBs still has significant issues, and who is drafted first may come down to who plays the best down the stretch and potentially even in the postseason. There are a lot of improvements and advancements to get excited about in the game of Cam Ward, but he has not maintained the level of clean play that he experienced early on in the season. When it comes to avoiding pressures, Ward took only 2 Sacks on 32 Pressures in the first 4 Games of the season, a 6.25% Pressure-To-Sack% which was a marked improvement on his career totals so far. He has regressed in this number with 14 Sacks on 68 Pressures in the last 4 games (20.6%). Ward did not have a terrible game against Florida State, but he was frustrated by the FSU defenses and did little throughout the game other than scramble around and take check downs. If Ward continues to grow in his discipline and showcase his upside, he could very well be the 1.01 in the NFL Draft. Right now, I’m still skeptical, and it is worth noting that Miami (FL) has an abysmal schedule, which may put disproportionate attention on the theoretical ACC Championship and Playoff Games.
Selecting Carson Beck above Shedeur Sanders was one of the most controversial decisions on last week’s mock draft, and I have obviously flipped them here, but they remain neck-and-neck with the remainder of the season being a big factor for both players. While Beck may be struggling more this season, from a profiling perspective, his advantages are easier to see and more pronounced. Beck is bigger & likely more athletic, a combination that makes him not particularly mobile, but useful in short yardage. I would also wager that Beck has a better arm when it comes to the highest upside throws. Sanders’ advantages are far more nuanced, but in-and-of-themselves they are more important: Sanders reads out the field better, and has far better placement on his passes within his range. That said, Beck does have a crucial advantage of nuance as well: Beck plays with a better sense of pressure, better footwork, and while Sanders’ OC is a former NFL OC, Beck’s system is more “pro-style” while Sanders runs a lot of spread concepts. The question at this point between the two has two important parts: which is more important, and which is more likely to change? Most view Sanders as far superior because they see that ball placement ability as more important, but Sanders is also a 4-Year college starter who had an equivalent process of getting two years in a “minor league.” Beck is only entering his second year starting, and while he has been in College far longer, Beck is only 2.5 months older than Sanders. My fear with Sanders is that Beck is more likely to make progressions in those areas where he lags behind Sanders, while Sanders may be less likely to improve his sense of pressure, and on top of that, he is far less likely to become bigger, more athletic, or increase his arm potential substantially at this stage. Both QBs deserve first round consideration, but I wouldn’t feel excited about drafting any of these QBs (Cam Ward included) in the top 10 picks yet.
Jalen Milroe is the ultimate wild card for this class. There are days where the Anthony Richardson comparisons (at least for fantasy output) do not seem too outlandish, and then there are days where it seems he would be more fairly compared to a Malik Willis coming out of college, who ultimately went in the 3rd Round. IF Jalen Milroe is drafted in the top 50 picks, he will likely be a SF First Round Draft pick, and if he’s drafted in the top 15-20, he’s in play as early as the 1.01, but I do have some concerns with the tape he’s put up since Georgia that teams may not be willing to take that plunge.
The competition for RB is steep, and the group ranked 25-30 could easily climb into this range, but right now outside of my top four, I’m focused on Trevor Etienne & Kaleb Johnson. Etienne came into the season with a suspiciously efficient history as a pass-catcher (29 targets, 29 receptions), but without the volume or specific role that would give confidence in this being a bonafide skill. With Georgia’s receiver’s struggling, the TE’s lacking the faith of Brock Bowers, and Carson Beck throwing the ball to the other team, Trevor Etienne has emerged as a more consistent pass catching weapon for Georgia. He has caught 15 Passes on 15 Targets the last three weeks with 8 Missed Tackles Forced on those targets. Kaleb Johnson should likely be considered the biggest riser on this list since the pre-season, with Milroe and Tyler Warren being the other top candidates. Johnson has been exceptional, consistent, has excellent size, is running through tackles, and his receiving work has been increasing as well. In the first four games of the season, Johnson had 7 Targets (21 Tgt per 12 G Season). In the last four games, Johnson had 13 Targets (39 Tgt per 12 G Season).
There is a massive amount of upside between Evan Stewart, Antonio Williams, Isaiah Bond, & Elic Ayomanor. Unfortunately, whether it is situational or not, there is very little consistency. Evan Stewart has played in 8 games and has 26 yards are fewer in 5 of them. His game against Ohio State may single-handedly make him a 1st Round Pick with a good process, but he also needs to have a good process. Antonio Williams might be my favorite stylistically, but there is also little with the production to place him this highly, and if I do not see more consensus support of Williams, I may begin to feel like I am on an island which will generally lead to him falling down the rankings. This may be too harsh on Isaiah Bond when he objectively has just been injured the past three weeks, but the reason Bond was rising was this idea that he would be able to showcase himself throughout the season as the clear #1 for Texas. As someone who has not yet broken 700 Receiving Yards in a Season, we can project what Bond could have done this year, but losing that time in this kind of a situation is crucial. On paper, judging by my adjustments, Elic Ayomanor is actually the strongest producer here by far. Even this year, where the surface stats seem very disappointing, Ayomanor currently sits with 27.8% Receptions, 34.4% Receiving Yards, and 36.4% Receiving TDs, which would all be good numbers for an early declare WR’s peak season. Ayomanor has potentially an increased chance to return to Stanford, but if he declares, Ayomanor has a chance to rise throughout the process as someone who will likely both test and interview well.
Success at TE is hard to predict because it is only the top tier players who really make a difference. Because of this, I have the fewest criteria at TE and it is largely based on vibes. That said, both Colston Loveland & Tyler Warren represent a massive portion of their team’s offense. Loveland is far younger and would be the youngest TE drafted in the first two days in several years according to my Day 2 Age List, and that is at least part of the reason he is the first listed here. Warren is more versatile at least in the way he has been used thus far in his career.
High Floor Veteran (23.5 Draft Age) WRs
Tre Harris & Xavier Restrepo could each be in the higher tier of WRs, but as slightly older players who do not have ideal prospect profiles outside of age, their profiles feel a bit capped compared to the upside of the other WRs. Tre Harris has good size and contested ability, but there are some reasons to doubt his separation ability and much of his production comes on “free space” routes against off-coverage. He is also currently dealing with an injury. Xavier Restrepo is in that category where I question his role on the outside. Playing slot is not an issue if you can be an inside+outside versatile WR as I project Egbuka + Antonio Williams, but Restrepo seems to be more of a “slot-heavy” at best and a “slot-only” at worst, which may limit his upside. Restrepo’s value may also slant towards PPR formats.
Probable 2026 QBs Who Could Compete for QB1 Still in 2025
Cade Klubnik in particular is a QB who I could see rising high enough to be my QB1 in the class, but he has not been consistent enough to really project him to even be a part of the 2025 Class. Klubnik scores consistently in several key indicators I look for, but is also not quite high enough in any of these to truly feel like he is a top tier QB prospect. He is also the most mobile of this trio. Drew Allar continues to show promising signs, but I still have concerns about how he plays outside of structure. With an injury this past game, hopefully we get a fully healthy Allar to judge this upcoming weekend against Ohio State. Allar has the highest upside traits of this trio at least in terms of his size and arm talent. There are some signs that Garrett Nussmeier could declare and be highly drafted in 2026, though even before Texas A&M this past weekend, it was the position of this show that it made more sense for Nussmeier to get the second year on tape. Nussmeier is the best QB in this class at avoiding sacks, though he did get sacked twice this past weekend against A&M, which is significant because he had only been sacked once so far in 2024. Ultimately, it is the negative play that needs to be cut down. Nussmeier has made simply too many mistakes as a one year starter to have strong confidence in the draft capital profile.
Where 2025 1QB Drafts Could Get Really, Really Good
Many of these RBs could compete with Etienne/Johnson, but right now there is something with each holding them back. With Draft Capital though, this tier could easily rise to the late-1st. This is also the point where RB Rankings can diverge a bit based on what role or draft capital is anticipated. Perhaps others don’t agree with this idea, but there are certain RB profiles that I would prefer with high draft capital and a guaranteed role, while others I may prefer in a Day 3 environment. For example, Jordan James is one of my favorite pure runners, so while I questions about his overall upside, how his size translates with his play style, and what his receiving role looks like, he is someone who is so good at something in particular that I believe he can force his way into making an impact in a murky, Day 3 situation. However, players like Ollie Gordon II & Omarion Hampton in particular I have some questions about their translation for one reason or another, but if they were drafted highly, their size, speed, and pass-catching ability would give them the potential for fantasy volume that would raise them above a Jordan James even if all three RBs were taken say around pick 50. For Gordon, while he is an excellent explosive back in space, sometimes that explosion does not showcase in burst or successful play ability. He is very inconsistent for a bigger back. Hampton has excellent burst, but showcases sometimes what I see as a lack of feel for rushing lanes or gaining extra yardage. While Hampton is fairly large, he too often simply plunges forward in the open field, where utilizing his speed and acceleration would likely be a more effective maneuver.
D.J. Giddens could fall into a similar category as Gordon & Hampton and likely would with proper Draft Capital. He has been hot & cold in a way that makes me unsure where to properly rank him, and Giddens is a senior, which while not a significant issue, is rare among the top RBs in this class. Dylan Sampson & Devin Neal each showcase good feel for the game, but with neither having particularly special size or explosive ability, I’m a bit unsure what their roles are at the next level. If they can transition to a more pass-catching friendly role, they could excel as fantasy backs at the next level. As primary two-down backs, it seems less likely.
Other’s Top QBs ; Less Confident in Talent + Draft Capital
This may be the most controversial tier overall, though I’m not sure where the market is at with Ewers after the Georgia + Vanderbilt games the last two weekends. Jaxson Dart has a good arm, solid build, and rushing ability that can translate at the NFL level. However, his performance against SEC competition has not been strong enough this season. The Lane Kiffin offense might be a limiting factor, but ultimately we can only judge Dart in the system he plays in. Perhaps he is the late riser who surprises teams in the process, but right now I would expect him to be closer to a Day 2 grade. Similarly, Quinn Ewers has a phenomenal arm, and for many analysts he gets into the 1st Round on that arm alone. That is not the grade I currently have on him or project for him when we get closer to the high-scrutiny portions of the process. Perhaps I am incorrect, but I am concerned by Ewers’ combination of lacking physical ceiling outside of his arm, lack of success historically outside of the short game, and durability concerns which can compound with that physicality and lacking physical ceiling. This is not just my own grade, but as of today it is hard for me to see Ewers being selected in the 1st Round in spite of so many mock drafts which seem to suggest he will.
Other Top Players
There aren’t many names here at RB, but these five do have quite a bit of upside still. Damien Martinez was much higher rated in the pre-season, and has finally looked like that RB since being moved to RB2 with Miami. Desmond Reid makes De’Von Achane look big, but he is a dynamic producer who has been excellent as a pass catching back.
I’ve listed far more WRs than any other position, and that is because it is not very solid up-top, particularly if we don’t get solid profiles or declares out of Stewart, Williams, Bond, and Ayomanor. There was a greater priority put on potential early declares because there is a bit more upside here, but these younger players are also producing fairly well right now (Dane Key, Barion Brown, Aaron Anderson, Denzel Boston, & Elijah Sarratt). Jalen Royals was listed a bit more highly, but he has slipped due to a season-ending injury which limits his ability to build his profile if he is to enter the 2025 Class.
Harold Fannin Jr. has showcased excellent upside, and it will be intriguing to see what the NFL makes of his size and physical translation. Mason Taylor has slipped a bit, but is a young, large, receiving TE who could easily translate as a higher-round draft pick.
I may or may not have notes on the Honorable Mentions on the Fantasy For Real Podcast
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Thanks,
C.J.
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