Post-May Mock Draft Start-Up SF Tiers
I messed up the Tight Ends. Not on this ranking to be clear, but if anything on reflection has been made clear to me, it is that I was overlooking the TE rankings between 6-12 when I started this exercise. Most movements listed in the rankings below are minor and are things that have been actively discussed throughout each episode. The TE position has substantial movements, including two top-10 TEs who were not taken in the 12-Round SF Mock. The rankings listed here are the most up to date.
The next series from the Fantasy for Real podcast will be focused on Redraft. I have done projections for over 100 prominent players, and the next episode will be diving into the methodology as well as some of the most interesting things I learned during this process. This episode should be out very soon, and then afterward Divisional breakdowns for redraft will be coming. Because this projection process is new for myself and the show, I will be finalizing projections up until I release the projections for a division alongside that divisional breakdown.
//
The + and - numbers are my ranking in comparison to KeepTradeCut at my last check. There may be constant changes in that data, so focus primarily on the significant changes against KTC.
QBs
Tier 1
Josh Allen (+1)
Jayden Daniels (-1)
Lamar Jackson
Jalen Hurts (+1)
Tier 2
Joe Burrow (-1)
Patrick Mahomes
Justin Herbert (+1)
Tier 3
C.J. Stroud (+1)
Jordan Love (+3)
Drake Maye (-3)
Caleb Williams (-1)
Brock Purdy (+1)
Bo Nix (-2)
Tier 4
Bryce Young (+6)
Kyler Murray
J.J. McCarthy (-2)
Cam Ward
Baker Mayfield
Trevor Lawrence (-3)
Dak Prescott (+2)
Michael Penix Jr. (-2)
Jared Goff (-1)
Tua Tagovailoa (+1)
Tier 5
Justin Fields (+1)
Jaxson Dart (-2)
Geno Smith (+2)
Anthony Richardson
Sam Darnold (-2)
Tyler Shough (+2)
Matthew Stafford
Tier 6
Russell Wilson (+4)
Daniel Jones (+2)
Jalen Milroe (-4)
Shedeur Sanders (-2)
Dillon Gabriel (+2)
Will Howard (-3)
Aaron Rodgers (+7)
Mason Rudolph (+8)
Kenny Pickett (+4)
Quinn Ewers (-2)
Kirk Cousins (-2)
Joe Flacco (+6)
Minor Change(s): Michael Penix Jr. remains in the same tier, but I specifically moved him below the veteran QBs and none of the other younger QBs. While I do still have optimism on Penix, I’m worried that I’m swinging too far after ranking him lowly in rookie drafts last year. In particular, for fantasy, my redraft projections have Penix Jr. as one of the four worst rushers at the QB position among the 27 QBs I projected. His NFL sampling is small, but it backed up Penix Jr. as a pure pocket passer; Penix had only 11 rushing yards in 3 games. His testing-40 perhaps gives some upside there, but unless we see a change in the desire to run, that projection is part of what also made Penix my 27th QB (last) in projected Fantasy Points for the 2025 Season. These projections are naturally conservative on young players, but the process of the numbers do help to highlight the reality that, if Penix Jr. is in the truly rare tier of limited rushers like Tua, Goff, and Stafford, that is something that will negatively impact his fantasy value every year on a year-to-year basis.
RBs
Tier 1
Bijan Robinson
Jahmyr Gibbs
Tier 2
Ashton Jeanty
De’Von Achane (+2)
Saquon Barkley (-1)
Tier 3
Breece Hall (+2)
Omarion Hampton (-2)
Quinshon Judkins (+3)
Jonathan Taylor (+1)
Kyren Williams (+2)
TreVeyon Henderson (-2)
Bucky Irving (-5)
Kenneth Walker III (+2)
Josh Jacobs
Tier 4
Chase Brown (+1)
Christian McCaffrey (+3)
Kaleb Johnson (+1)
James Cook (-5)
R.J. Harvey (-2)
Derrick Henry
Tier 5
Chuba Hubbard
Brian Robinson Jr. (+4)
D’Andre Swift (+6)
Alvin Kamara (-1)
James Conner (+7)
Joe Mixon (-1)
David Montgomery (-5)
Travis Etienne (+7)
Tier 6
Trey Benson (-1)
Aaron Jones (+6)
Isiah Pacheco (-1)
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (-1)
Cam Skattebo (-9)
Tier 7
Tony Pollard
Zach Charbonnet (-8)
Javonte Williams (+10)
Isaac Guerendo (+10)
Bhayshul Tuten (-5)
Najee Harris (+2)
Rhamondre Stevenson (+10)
Tyjae Spears (-2)
Jaylen Warren (-4)
Minor Change/Note(s): This is probably the ranking that has shifted the least since going through the Superflex Start-Up Mock. The most important thing about these RB rankings is that I really love that top 14. That’s the strongest top 14 I’ve seen in years, and it doesn’t include players that could be in the same tier as Kyren/Bucky like Chase Brown, or players who could be RB1s this year like CMC or Henry. It even fails to include rookies like Harvey or Johnson. Extending it through that tier into the top 20, and this is a top 20 where – if I plan to compete in year 1 – ideally I find myself getting 2 or 3 of the RBs in this tier.
WRs
Tier 1
Ja’Marr Chase
Justin Jefferson
CeeDee Lamb (+1)
Tier 2
Malik Nabers (-1)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (+1)
Brian Thomas Jr. (-1)
Nico Collins (+1)
Puka Nacua (-1)
Tier 3
Drake London
Garrett Wilson (+3)
Marvin Harrison Jr. (-1)
A.J. Brown (+3)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-1)
Ladd McConkey (-3)
Tier 4
Tetairoa McMillan (+1)
Travis Hunter (-2)
Tee Higgins
Rashee Rice
Devonta Smith
Tier 5
Rome Odunze
Chris Olave (+5)
D.J. Moore (+7)
D.K. Metcalf (+2)
Xavier Worthy (-2)
Jaylen Waddle (+3)
Zay Flowers (-2)
Jameson Williams
Jordan Addison (-5)
Emeka Egbuka (-7)
Matthew Golden
Brandon Aiyuk (+4)
Tier 6
Terry McLaurin (-1)
Courtland Sutton (+14)
George Pickens (-2)
Luther Burden III (-2)
Jerry Jeudy (-2)
Mike Evans
Davante Adams (+7)
Chris Godwin (+2)
Tier 7
Jayden Reed
Jauan Jennings (+11)
Jayden Higgins (-6)
Jack Bech (+5)
Stefon Diggs (+13)
Jakobi Meyers (+6)
Calvin Ridley (+10)
Josh Downs (-4)
Keon Coleman (-2)
Tyreek Hill (-10)
Jalen Coker (+18)
Kyle Williams (+1)
Ricky Pearsall (-18)
Khalil Shakir (-9)
Tre Harris (-12)
Deebo Samuel (-1)
Jaylin Noel (-3)
Darnell Mooney (+3)
Pat Bryant (+15)
Cooper Kupp (-1)
Xavier Legette (-1)
Michael Pittman (-12)
Rashid Shaheed (-1)
Jalen McMillan (-8)
Cedric Tillman (+1)
Minor Change/Note(s): The WR position probably has the most minor changes up and down the board. However, nothing really gets spicy at all until Tier 5. And the difference in my rankings from Tier 5 onward is why I sometimes slant towards taking those RBs early– while my WR room will not look great, I do still believe it is the position I can most piece together later in a draft. Rome Odunze was originally the last player in Tier 4, so while it could go largely unnoticed, I did decide to drop him to Tier 5. I did some shuffling in Tier 5, specifically with Worthy and Jameson moving up within the tier just a bit. In Tier 6, I decided to officially move McLaurin, Sutton, and Pickens as the top three there. These are three players that I have short-term window concerns (for different reasons with Pickens), but all three have healthy projections for the 2025 season, and none of these players are old enough for that to be a particular concern. Tier 7 could probably be broken down further, but I decided to stop adding additional tiers at this point.
TEs
Tier 1
Brock Bowers
Trey McBride
Tier 2
Sam LaPorta
Tier 3
George Kittle (+2)
T.J. Hockenson (+2)
Colston Loveland (-1)
Tyler Warren (-3)
Tier 4
David Njoku (+4)
Jonnu Smith (+13)
Evan Engram (+5)
Tucker Kraft (-1)
Tier 5
Dalton Kincaid (-3)
Kyle Pitts (-5)
Tier 6
Harold Fannin Jr. (+10)
Mason Taylor (-1)
Jake Ferguson
Mark Andrews (-4)
Travis Kelce (+1)
Terrance Ferguson (-2)
Elijah Arroyo (-3)
Brenton Strange
Isaiah Likely (-11)
Pat Friermuth (-5)
Cade Otton (-4)
Dallas Goedert
J.T. Sanders (+1)
Minor Change/Note(s): By far my biggest position of change, Jonnu Smith and Evan Engram were severely underrated in the initial mock drafts. While I am not quite confident enough to rank them over players drafted highly in the 1st Round of this year, there is a reasonable argument that waiting on a Smith or Engram might be the best short-term strategy for the TE position within Dynasty leagues. There is specifically a clear disconnect between the Redraft and Dynasty communities on Jonnu Smith. If his Dynasty price point is actually realistic of where he is being valued in your league, aggressive buys should be happening for Jonnu Smith at price.
//
I don’t know what the next Substack post will bring, but expect redraft rankings, projections, and divisional breakdowns throughout June.
C.J.
Share this post