The first part of the write-up today covers some values in the Start-Up Superflex Mock. The longer second section is breaking down some Devy Prospects that have been moving my rankings after my own Devy Drafts. As always, the Podcast discusses all of these things on today’s episode.
Biggest Market Differences (pt. 1 of 3)
If you have any time sensitive questions about any players mocked rounds 5-12 or beyond, feel free to leave a comment! All other questions are welcome as well.
This mock was designed before the trade of George Pickens to the Cowboys, and this move has a potential in my mind to be a major short-term upgrade. Pickens would likely be drafted much more highly should the draft be done again today.
Full Mock:
(some players, particularly 12th Rd. QBs, may be a bit over-drafted to fill out roster)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x4k2FHqDOjiQADDFbC5WhnyX9HbPqu16zjsE57enjB4/edit?usp=sharing
Rounds 1-4 (Episode 93)
Brian Thomas Jr. -8 spots from consensus on KTC, Ashton Jeanty -7, Puka Nacua -7, Ja’Marr Chase -6, Malik Nabers -6, Justin Jefferson -5, Patrick Mahomes +4, Justin Herbert +4
There are probably some differences on the players as well here, but the gap and extent of the negative numbers in particular I attribute more to the meta strategy employed during the Mock Draft to secure QBs. KTC is not Mock Draft ADP, so there are probably some inconsistencies at the top.
Cam Ward -5, J.J. McCarthy +6, Bryce Young +18
I do not dislike Cam Ward, I just have him ranked behind J.J. McCarthy and Bryce Young. For McCarthy, this is an odd move as it moves his stock up after not playing, and for that reason alone it feels hard to justify. However, previously we had only seen Kevin O’Connell directly work with Kirk Cousins over a long period of time, a QB who had been successful under several other Head Coaches. After witnessing the Darnold reclamation project, as well as seeing the team be comfortable letting Darnold walk, there actually do seem to be reasons to be encouraged despite a complete lack of playing time. In terms of Bryce Young, I truly believe he has turned a corner, and while some people can point to some long-term upside concerns, those are similarly shared by some QBs going in the 2nd Round. Ultimately, Cam Ward is a very solid prospect, someone who has the right intangibles, has constantly improved, and has the physical traits. With the first overall pick, it is perfectly justified to take Ward the first among this group. Ward was my least favorite collegiate prospect, and so while his recent draft capital investment is a huge mark in his favor, I’m weighing Bryce Young’s performance and J.J. McCarthy’s Capital + Situation as being the more valuable targets today. With three potentially volatile assets, this could age very poorly.
Travis Hunter -9
I’m curious to see examples of trades within leagues where Hunter is moved for a proven veteran. Perhaps it is just my experience coloring my perspective, but I have found no buyers near the market price for Travis Hunter. While the talent and appeal of the upside are tantalizing, he is still a player who has unique floor and ceiling concerns due to his desire to play defense. At certain prices, the reward is absolutely worth the risk. I have a hard time taking Hunter over players that I have in the practically-elite tier.
Saquon Barkley -7
I am probably underrating Barkley just a bit here in his individual upside. Ultimately, while Bijan/Gibbs are unique for their age and production, Barkley’s production is probably going to fit better with a team that has a specific desire to create a “win now” team. These players often are hurt in my 12-Team by-myself mocks. There is also a strong appeal for me right now in trading Barkley for one of Judkins/Henderson +, particularly if you can get a very substantial +. While there is risk in those rookies, the risk is limited by their elite-to-near-elite draft capital.
Jalen Hurts +7
The gap between a QB6 and a QB2 is significant, but sometimes we overrate our ability to know exactly who will be QB2 versus QB6 (outside of Josh Allen). The potential banning of the tush push is a concern, but this is a mobile Super Bowl winning QB who has longevity, floor, and ceiling.
Garrett Wilson +8
The targets have been more impressive so far in his young career, and I will be the first to point out that D.J. Moore’s WR6 season with Justin Fields came with a lot of downs and a few huge blow-up games. Still, the Jets have seemingly designed this offense to run almost exclusively through Justin Fields, Breece Hall, and Garrett Wilson. Between his talent, age, and opportunity, if Wilson is as good as many people including myself think, this may be the last opportunity to buy at a reasonable price below the top 2 rounds of SF Drafts.
Brock Purdy +8
Purdy is not flashy, but after the top 12 QBs, Brock Purdy and Kyler Murray are likely the two safe options if teams want to go in that direction as opposed to taking a more volatile risk on the three QBs mentioned above (Young, McCarthy, Ward) + Penix. There are other safe options, but most are older and have equal or lesser mobility even compared to Brock Purdy.
Quinshon Judkins +10
This should be no surprise given my rookie rankings. While the Browns offense does not scream “efficiency,” there are very few RBs in the NFL who become the defining player for their offense. Judkins is in a clear position to be a bellcow who becomes the identity of the Browns offense over the next couple years. While they will have to improve on offense specifically at the QB position over time to help Judkins out with his efficiency, right away I expect to see a high touch volume and potential for TDs in every game, even for a lower-scoring offense.
Jordan Love +13
Love had a disappointing follow-up to a breakout campaign, but I am still confident in his overall abilities (unfortunately). Love dealt with injuries in 2024, and he also had two of the worst Drop% WRs in football between Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Reed. Now bringing in a 1st Round WR and hoping to see more consistency out of the secondary pieces, Love still pairs himself with a Offensive coaching staff that seems to produce strong fantasy outputs. He is a safer pick than the non-Jayden Daniels sophomores, though likely does not have quite as much upside.
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Devy Tier Moves
UPDATED DEVY TIERS (FULL): https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YhvUqYbpfQhZ0GhpSEGVvwnY90oLJLXVh258Qxz2gBA/edit?usp=sharing
Dylan Raiola, QB, Nebraska -1
While I still have high hopes for the Nebraska QB, he just didn’t seem to have quite the upside as the other members in his tier. Most of the movements here have something to do with Mock Drafts or further research, but a couple are just slight re-arrangements based on looking at the rankings for a bit longer. Raiola seems to better fit in with the Klubnik, Nussmeier, Russell tier in my own rankings.
Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU +1 ; Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State -1
The two players who have had the strongest and most consistent 2026 Mock Draft consensus early on in the process are Garrett Nussmeier and Drew Allar. Nussmeier is an odd combination of age + lack of experience, but he is the QB I personally now consider the most likely to be a 1st Round Pick. Alternatively, I continue to have my own translation questions about Sam Leavitt. Other dynasty/devy resources seem much more confident in his arm talent relative to a player like Cade Klubnik, but Leavitt’s playground football tendencies and limited number of “NFL throws” give me some translation concerns, including concerns that Leavitt even declares for the 2026 draft. Nussmeier’s age and Klubnik’s experience entering his 3rd full year as a starter and 4th year in College combined with their higher mock draft consensus make me significantly more confident that those two will enter the NFL Draft and be selected highly.
Makai Lemon, WR, USC -1
In my eyes, part of a balanced process is the weighing of consensus. Tyson and Lemon entered the cycle as my top two WRs, and they remain my top 2 WRs, but they no longer sit in the exact same tier. While one or two mocks have omitted Jordyn Tyson, the general consensus on Tyson’s chances to be a 1st Round WR seem very strong with a healthy and productive season. Makai Lemon has been an omission in most mocks, and on deeper lists generally falls closer to a fringe top-50 pick. Lemon is still a skill-set, archetype, and trend that I want to invest in, but even I do admit that there are challenges with a player who is lean and will play primarily or exclusively on the inside of the formation. I’m not sure he’s this caliber of prospect, but I see him as the closest equivalent of Emeka Egbuka or JSN in this class. However, that is still a bit of a risk as the traits won’t elevate Lemon’s draft stock if he has a more middling season. I expect big things from Makai Lemon, and he is ultimately still my WR2 for 2026. But between the two, I do think I need to put Jordyn Tyson in a tier of his own right now.
Husan Longstreet, QB, USC +1 ; Harlem Berry, RB, LSU +1 ; C.J. Carr, QB, Notre Dame -1 (+Julian Sayin discussion)
A pair of consensus 5-Star freshman, I have moved both up into the tier that includes other 5-Star Freshman like QB St. Claire, WRs Lockett, Porter, Myles, and Taylor, and above the rest of the RBs for the 2025/2028 cycle. As always, remember that I do not directly scout High School. Longstreet is a player who has risen swiftly into the ranks of a consensus 5-Star, and while he is not the most polished product, he has elite tools and goes to a dream pairing with Lincoln Riley. Riley failed to produce elite QB production last year, and top level recruit Malachi Nelson flamed out at USC, but these two items have likely caused too much skepticism about Riley. Nelson was unable to find a starting position after transferring to Boise St., and seems to be struggling to get the job now in year 3 at UTEP. Perhaps Riley could have prevented this outcome, but without trying to sound too harsh, Nelson’s outcome is so poor for a top recruit that it is hard to blame any single individual. With a questionable QB room, Longstreet could see himself playing in Big Ten play by this season. He’s probably not ready for that, but the elite ceiling and some sprinkles of performance could cause him to have a jump between year 1 and 2 that could be anywhere from Spencer Rattler to Caleb Williams.
I usually don’t rank RBs this highly unless they check every single box as I have largely moved away from investing in freshman RBs outside of that elite tier. Berry is borderline “tiny” for the RB position– not merely undersized like Jeremiyah Love entering CFB, but genuinely down at around 175-185 lbs. While weight gain is assumed with HS players, that’s far enough away from 200 that it probably should be assumed that he never quite plays there. Still, this is an objective measurement, and it is not as if the overwhelming consensus that weighs Berry as an elite player in this class is unaware of this drawback. There are certainly translation concerns with Berry, but he is a player I’m willing to take the red flag on and bet on a player that is overwhelmingly beloved outside of some Devy/Fantasy sources.
Recently I have been touting the idea that Sayin and Carr are in a great position to put themselves on a trajectory that ranges between Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud, and that is certainly true. However, I also think in that discourse I have probably understated how difficult that path is to actually achieve. When forced to make the decision myself on what I value, while Sayin and Carr becoming starters has put them in a much more rare tier of prospect, I would probably still lean on a few more of the 2025/2028 QBs like Longstreet over Sayin/Carr as NFL prospects due to the higher upside and lack of proof from any of the QBs here. Sayin was more highly regarded as a prospect, and Ohio State is a bit more prominent for developing at skills positions, so I did not move Sayin down quite yet, but the feeling on Sayin and Carr will be fairly similar based on the situations they are in.
Jadan Baugh, RB, Florida -1
Baugh’s size and early production put him a bit separate from the other RBs in C-Tier initially, but ultimately when forced to make my own decisions, my confidence in Baugh is not high enough to separate him from the rest of that tier. Baugh is in a good position to be a major part of the Florida offense, but there are also concerns between the pass catching profile as well as the increased competition at all skill positions. The “D.J. Lagway effect” is great for Florida in general, but the level of talent they’re bringing in now at the skill positions means that everyone else is going to need to step up their game.
Denzel Boston, WR, Washington +2 ; Germie Bernard, WR, Alabama +1 ; Nyck Harbor, WR, South Carolina +1 ; Bryson Washington, RB, Baylor +1 ; James Peoples, RB, Ohio State +1 ; Mylan Graham, WR, Ohio State +1 ; Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB, California +1
This is a list of players who were not on the Devy Rankings initially, but I now rank highly enough to be listed at least in C-Tier.
Denzel Boston is the perfect example of everything we have been discussing with 2026. Boston is becoming a near-consensus 1st Round Mock pick it seems, and that is likely because he took a big step forward in 2024 and has excellent size + athleticism. Boston also does have a strong excuse for his lack of early production as his first two years had Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan all sharing the WR room above him. However, whether we want to call it excuses or context, Boston is going to score very poorly on many/most production models due to this complete lack of early production. And while 2024 was encouraging, he slowed down significantly throughout the end of the season, and his peak performance came against Rutgers+Northwestern in a two game stretch in the middle of the season. I know it was his first opportunity, but as a 3rd year player, we really want to see more than that from the production. Still, Boston’s consensus is so strong that he sets himself apart from most of C-Tier. He would be one of the last players I would consider in his tier though.
Germie Bernard is one of those prospects who has not cleared any threshold we look for, but has constantly done “just enough” and improved season-over-season, which both give the idea that Bernard could continue to improve into the point of a potential WR2/3 at the NFL level. While Bernard has attended three different schools in his first three years, this is a bit of an illusion. Bernard followed Head Coach Kalen DeBoer from Washington to Alabama. Nyck Harbor is an absolute physical freak, though clearly I have some concerns about his ultimate development. Still, most prospects in Tier C should be seen as having a very low chance to hit, so it does make sense to at least include Harbor in the tiers. I don’t think anyone drafting on my rankings would be the first to take the plunge on Nyck Harbor. Both Harbor and Bernard have been occasionally listed in First Round Mock Drafts.
Bryson Washington is a bit more of an oversight. The Baylor RB had an excellent close to the 2024 season and is eligible for the 2026 draft. The Missed Tackles Forced numbers and some of the film against Big 12 competition give me pause, and so far I’ve only moved Washington into Tier C, but that is something that I am taking under consideration. James Peoples has proven far less, but is in a fantastic situation as the presumed lead RB for Ohio State. The talk around Spring Camp has been that both Peoples and freshman RB Bo Jackson have been extremely impressive. Jackson was listed on the initial tiers, but as a top-150 recruit starting for a major university in Year 2, Peoples deserves far more credit, and is actually one of my favorite RBs in Tier C at this point. Mylan Graham’s lack of production in year one on any other team would be a death sentence, but given the fact that he was behind Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate, and Emeka Egbuka as a true freshman, perhaps Graham should be on the list for at least one more year. That said, while Graham has gotten some spring hype, I would still take the 5-Star Freshman (Quincy Porter) over the 5-Star Sophomore coming off a zero-year.
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele was a late riser in the recruiting process, but has an excellent arm and landed with a California team that gives him a path to starting in year one. There are obviously some concerns about the potential for long term development, but Sagapolutele is too talented and too close to a starting Power 4 role to be ranked outside of Tier C in Superflex.
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Thanks,
C.J.
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