Happy (early) 4th of July!
The write-up is a bit long today, but I’ve neglected writing much outside of the projections the last four editions. This write-up covers many major 1QB Redraft rankings and ideas discussed on the show over the course of the last 6 episodes including this Mock, the previous 4 divisional shows, and the projections preview podcast.
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2025 June/July Redraft Mock Draft
This Mock Draft exercise is my own drafting for each of the 12-Teams to the best of my ability. Keep in mind, I’m not suggesting each pick is perfect or that it would go the exact same way if I did it again. That is part of the point of a “Mock” exercise: it is not perfect, but it brings up many relevant and important questions.
The link below goes to a “Clicky” Draft board which can help visualize the picks discussed on the podcast.
League Settings: 12-Tm, 1QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 Flex, Half PPR (No TEP)
The team-specific rosters have not been properly adjusted to the league setting (the teams show up in a 2 WR 2 RB roster, but I drafted with a 3 WR roster in mind). I could not find a way to adjust the Clicky roster settings without a paid subscription.
DRAFT BOARD: https://clickydraft.com/draftapp/board/277211
Draft Notes
A few mock and player specific thoughts that I wanted to discuss here—
QBs
At the QB position, given how valuable some of those late picks could be to win leagues, I do debate taking QBs in the 3rd Round in general, but there is a clear difference between the top 3-6 and the rest of the field. That said, I’m mostly in-line with consensus on those players, particularly the top 5.
The real difference from the consensus comes in the second tier of QB, particularly with how long I am willing to wait on QB7. There are some reasons to create difference between QBs 7-13, but I honestly do not have a very significant difference between any of the QBs in this tier. All of the QBs in this tier could feasibly be a weekly QB1 option who finishes in the top 10-12. This tier is also made of QBs where there is reason to doubt whether they can consistently produce truly top tier seasons, the kind of seasons that are considered more common place among the top 5-6 QBs. On top of that, many of my favorites in this tier are going extremely late, lessening the need to reach for a QB. Dak Prescott should project similarly to Burrow or Mahomes without injury, yet he is a complete afterthought. I have him ranked QB8 and a huge target for any team getting CeeDee Lamb but missing on the top tier of QB. Jordan Love is a player who I similarly attribute some of his downturn to injury-related situations, and the acquisition of Matthew Golden could theoretically raise the ceiling.
Love as a contrast to players like Baker Mayfield helps to highlight why I feel this way about these QBs: over the last two years, Baker Mayfield is averaging 4,272 Yards and 34 TDs per 17 Games. Jordan Love is averaging 4,000 and 30 TDs per 17 Games. That gap is significant if it continues, but context in my eyes favors Love because part of his sample includes injuries, and Baker Mayfield did take the biggest step for fantasy under Liam Coen, and there is at least some doubt whether he sustains at quite the same level in 2025.
This is all before getting to the fact that there are several “punt” options outside of my top 13 that are perfectly viable. Between Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, J.J. McCarthy, and Michael Penix Jr., it might be hard to pick one sophomore to take a large leap, but it also seems fairly unlikely that none of them do so. Former 1st Overall picks Trevor Lawrence and Bryce Young have improving situations and new offensive weapons. Rookie 1st Overall Picks are generally not a good bet, but they’re usually more expensive than Cam Ward is because of all those young, talented, and better situated players I just mentioned. Justin Herbert hasn’t been mentioned yet, and he finished 2024 on a solid pace. Similarly, Jared Goff I have outside the top 13 due to rushing and offensive potential changes, but he is another player that plenty of managers are fine with being their QB1. And as mentioned on the Podcast, it might not be sexy, but punting at the QB position all the way until you get to the Indianapolis Colts might actually be a viable strategy for a 1QB league. It’s probably too extreme to be something I would attempt in a 12-Tm league, but both Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones have rushing-focused archetypes that often end in QB1 PPG production, and if either one of these two was the clear starter for 17 Games, that QB would be either in the top 13 or just outside of it. The fact that it is unlikely either QB plays 17 Games is what keeps them from that ranking.
RBs
Aside from the massive fall-off points at QB and TE, the biggest tier gap in my rankings might occur after those first 12 RBs. Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker III, James Cook, and a few more RBs can be seen as both having a viable floor and a potential for an elite ceiling, but there is a substantial gap between how I project those players compared to even Chase Brown and Bucky Irving, who do have some long-term doubts still, but are in fantastic situations for 2025. That is why Chase Brown was such a strong consideration even for the team with Ja’Marr Chase at the 2.11.
Out of all the players that I differ from consensus with, James Cook is the hardest to justify the ranking. I have concerns about Cook as a “between-the-20s” back even after the huge TD output in 2024. Perhaps I’m overly concerned with an aggressive regression back to 2022-2023 TD output, as well as a slightly diminishing pass catching role despite the need for more pass catchers.
Draft classes often create some odd contrasts because we often fail to look at prospects relative to the overall position, and instead look at prospects relative to their current draft class. While he was still considerably expensive, the way Marvin Harrison Jr. leached hype from Malik Nabers last year is a good example of this. While not the most relevant for this league setting, the value of Bo Nix in particular was also likely hampered by being the “6th” QB in his draft class.
Ashton Jeanty being the #6 Overall pick after a year where we had no RBs in the top 40 is causing us to casually forget how good the draft capital is for players like Quinshon Judkins, TreVeyon Henderson, and even Omarion Hampton. Since 2020, there have been a similar number of RBs drafted in the top 40 as there have been QBs drafted in the top 5 and WRs drafted in the top 10. While Judkins does have to deal with a poor offense and Henderson + Hampton have to deal with another viable RB on the team, these three players each have the talent to be league winners, and given their situations, R.J. Harvey and Kaleb Johnson are not that far behind.
From the 3.11 to the 6.10, 21 WRs go off the board compared to just 11 RBs. Part of this is obviously the 3WR setting, but in general I am leaning heavily on the WRs in this range when possible. That is also why securing a top-12 RB is something I’m trying to do with each team in the draft. If you are higher on players like Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, etc., it makes perfect sense to be more satisfied taking those WRs early and getting one of these players late. I am a bit lower than the consensus on the RBs ranked below D’Andre Swift.
The handcuff RBs are moving around a bit in my rankings, simply because I’ve found more often than not my needs at RB are greater in that area of the draft. I did pair up a handcuff at least once I believe, but I do not prioritize specifically getting the handcuff for the RB on your own roster. In fact, doing the opposite has proven to have more upside in increasing the chance of getting a difference making second player between the two picks.
WRs
The tiers at WR at the top can be incremental (I wouldn’t say ARSB, BTJ, Nabers, or AJB are in their own “tiers,” but those WRs really are individually separated and distinct in my rankings), but after the top 11 WRs, the tiers can start to form a bit more.
Tee Higgins, Rashee Rice, and Garrett Wilson are three WRs with clear paths to being WR1s but with something significant standing in their way (injuries or a new QB). For Higgins, I do not believe Chase is a detriment to Higgins becoming a WR1 due to the excessive volume from Joe Burrow. Chase is a significant detriment to Higgins becoming THE WR1 overall, but I’m only worried about the WR2 monicker at the absolute highest tiers of projection. Marvin Harrison Jr. —> DK Metcalf is largely my next tier, though Marvin Harrison Jr. and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are listed at the front of that tier due to their perceived talent+youth related upside. JSN had an excellent season in year 2, but I have enough concerns with the QB change that I am at this point below consensus on JSN. A half step below that, Tetairoa McMillan, D.J. Moore, and George Pickens cover the gap between the WR2s and the highest-upside WR3s. That next tier has players like Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Jameson Williams, Travis Hunter, and Xavier Worthy, who all have some variation of excellent ceiling. In contrast to the players before though, I do have more significant floor concerns. We haven’t seen substantial decline from Adams yet, but he’s old enough for it and it is not ideal for 32-YOs to be joining new teams. Hill has shown a significant decline. Williams is still hard to trust receiving targets, while Hunter is hard to trust receiving snaps (on offense). Worthy actually seems like the best “floor” option, but I see him as having a potentially limited ceiling unless he has added significant downfield refinement. The final major tier — bookended by injury concerns in Chris Olave and Brandon Aiyuk — is the last tier of players that I feel comfortable with either as a starter, or believe the upside is so tantalizing and with such a clear path (Matthew Golden, Rome Odunze, Jayden Reed, Ricky Pearsall depending on the health of Brandon Aiyuk).
Obviously I am not confident or comfortable at this point with Aiyuk being a “starter,” but he remains in that tier as I continue to consider the injury situation based on limited knowledge this far out. Aiyuk was very recently my WR1 on SF, and now is my WR3. If he is fully healthy in Camp, he will easily be my WR1. If he is not, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall will continue to elevate my rankings.
The “fringe” tier goes from Jordan Addison —> Christian Kirk, and while there are significant reasons to doubt each of these players, I believe the players in this tier are clearly above the players in the flier tier, who I have a hard time differentiating between.
That is why once we get to the flier tier, pure “BPA” moves become less ideal; the arguments after Christian Kirk are all varying degrees of very to extremely unlikely. There are reasons behind my organization of the names, but these reasons are frankly not anything I would care to defend in great detail at least in comparison to other players in the flier tier.
TEs
Maybe it was silly to ever believe Jonnu Smith could repeat 80% of last year, but at a position where we only have 12 league starters and very few players who are ever flexed particularly in a typical league setting like this, losing Smith is significant to the ripple effect of how many teams will project to get a viable TE on my board, and while I don’t believe it would change too much, it does have the potential to push other TEs up in comparison. Bowers, McBride, Kittle, and LaPorta are unlikely to be able to rise too much more. As I currently understand the market, LaPorta could rise by the consensus, but my ranking is already above that consensus.
T.J. Hockenson, David Njoku, and Tucker Kraft are the TEs I want to draft after the first four, and those three are extremely clear. A player like Kraft could be seen similar to Kelce/Andrews, but I’d rather bank on the upside and ceiling at this point belonging to the younger player. Hockenson and Njoku have each had excellent volume when healthy for the TE position, and volume that per-17 Games would easily have them ranked above where they’re going in the Mock. Tucker Kraft is an interesting conversation because he is a lower-target TE, but his efficiency was excellent. That could lead to a scary floor, but it could also lead to a much higher ceiling than many believe if he does see an increase from 75-85 to 100-110 targets.
Targeting ceiling is ultimately what pushes Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce so far down my rankings, and I am wary that I’m potentially being too aggressive with it, but I believe Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce are both transitioning from true TE1s to the most-consistent streamer-quality TEs. I get why they continue to go so highly: I myself think they are two of the more likely TEs to be top 12, and they’ve been top 3 often, so there is a very “keep it simple” argument that suggests there is clear floor and ceiling here. I’m not willing to overlook the career trajectories from these two players, and so at this point I see a higher range outcome being a TE6-8 for these players, which has marginal value at best in a 1QB league.
Andrews/Kelce in particular have arguments to go above the highly-drafted rookie TEs, but after TE7 in this class, I’d rather take Warren/Loveland in a vacuum as I see them as having some of the clearest paths to having higher-tier upside. That statement might seem conflicting due to Indianapolis’ QB and Chicago’s depth at WR (and still some questions at QB), but when we’re talking about high-level achievement at the TE position, there are basically no players where I would consider it more likely for them to have a high-degree of achievement. I don’t at all expect the Rookie TE1 in LaPorta and Bowers we’ve gotten the last two years, but should I have the roster space for it, I’d prefer taking Warren/Loveland in the top 10 at TE and then finding a shorter-term viable option later in the draft. The main concern with this strategy and why I used the term “in a vacuum” is because some league settings will make it much harder to roster 2 TEs. If you have a shallow bench, that could hurt the viability of targeting Warren/Loveland for the upside.
Rankings Shuffle
Keep in mind some rankings are still moving around, and every time I do an exercise like this one and am forced to make decisions — even theoretical ones — I find myself making a few movements. Aside from movements related to the Jonnu Smith trade, the most significant movement since the last post is with Travis Etienne Jr. moving up a few spots. He didn’t change too much in the RB Rankings if you’re just listing them 1-34+, but he did move up a tier. The only other player to move through a tier aside from the Dolphins trade was Brandon Aiyuk, though that was very minor from making him the last player in one tier to the first player in the next tier, only moving down one overall spot because Travis Etienne jumped over Aiyuk.
Because re-draft is so short-term focused, camp reports including health and holdouts will be very important particularly within tiers, so these rankings will continue to change and likely have more volatility compared to start-up rankings.
Updated Rankings (1-150+)
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jzcPUrxt602QmYtFFNPyr3wf-arQC0i_VadNtkTOfok/edit?usp=sharing
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NEXT UP: This write-up concludes the first redraft-focused month of the Fantasy for Real podcast and my substack. There will still be constant redraft news, updates, and minor talking points that will be included on shows even this Summer, so if you’re mostly interested in redraft, this show and substack will continue to discuss relevant topics.
That said, for the next 4 shows/posts, the Fantasy for Real podcast is pivoting back to my passion and what I love to discuss so much: prospects and potential NFL futures. I don’t know what I have planned for the write-ups yet, but the next 3 shows will cover over 200 of the most viable NFL-potential prospects in CFB at the QB, RB, WR, and TE positions, including discussions for players not only eligible in 2026, but underclassmen not eligible until 2027 and 2028 as well. The 4th show will be a recap, focusing on higher tier names exclusively, narrowing the list down to about the best 60-70 prospects across the 2026-2028+ classes in CFB.
I’m excited to start digging back in to the truly fun stuff.
Happy 4th of July,
C.J.
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