Two more divisions for redraft today, and I also have write-ups for the WR and TE Start-Up rankings:
AFC/NFC North Projections:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P0kR-8JkZStwcs1Jn7OZ8vUReBZKgBpK7PjizX2PSdA/edit?usp=sharing
East+West+North:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AvejWAf25O9wi90pwxHQMl87dNzxT59aLPvkSO66Bvk/edit?usp=sharing
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Minor WR Note — I’m starting to think I’m under-weighing Brandon Aiyuk’s injury concern, so that might start coming into play in adjustments you may be noticing.
WRs
+ and - numbers are differences against FantasyCalc’s Current Rankings. I removed some of the more narrow differences particularly down tiers in order to keep focus on the substantial differences in each tier.
Tier 1
Ja’Marr Chase
Justin Jefferson
CeeDee Lamb (+1)
Tier 2
Malik Nabers (-1)
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Brian Thomas Jr.
Nico Collins (+2)
Puka Nacua (-1)
Tier 3A
Drake London
Garrett Wilson (+2)
Marvin Harrison Jr.
A.J. Brown (+3)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Ladd McConkey (-3)
Tier 3B
Tetairoa McMillan
Travis Hunter (-3)
Tee Higgins
Rashee Rice
Devonta Smith
Tier 4
Rome Odunze
Chris Olave (+8)
D.J. Moore (+3)
D.K. Metcalf (+3)
Xavier Worthy
Jameson Williams (+3)
Jaylen Waddle
Zay Flowers
Jordan Addison (+3)
Emeka Egbuka (-8)
Matthew Golden
Tier 5
Terry McLaurin (-10)
Courtland Sutton (+14)
George Pickens
Luther Burden III
Jerry Jeudy
Jayden Reed
Mike Evans
Davante Adams
Brandon Aiyuk
Chris Godwin (+5)
Tier 6
Tyreek Hill (-9)
Jauan Jennings (+11)
Josh Downs
Jayden Higgins (-9)
Jack Bech
Calvin Ridley (+8)
Jakobi Meyers (+4)
Keon Coleman
Ricky Pearsall (-10)
Stefon Diggs (+7)
Jalen Coker (+25)
Khalil Shakir (-9)
Tier 7
Kyle Williams (-5)
Tre Harris (-14)
Darnell Mooney
Marvin Mims Jr. (+11)
Deebo Samuel (-6)
Jaylin Noel
Pat Bryant
Cooper Kupp
Jalen McMillan
Xavier Legette
Michael Pittman (-9)
Rashid Shaheed
Elic Ayomanor
Cedric Tillman
Tier 1: Elite of the Elite
Tier 2: Elite per-game players with potential to be “Elite of the Elite” – Each player in this tier could reasonably be expected to produce not just 1,000 yards, but potentially enter the 1,300-1,400+ category on an annual basis. The oldest player in Tier 2 will play all of 2025 at the age of 26, meaning that each player in this tier has at least 4 full seasons before hitting 30 years old.
Tier 3: Fringe WR1 Players – This is a wider tier covering players who very narrowly are in the very top tier (Drake London), players who are simply getting a bit too old to be in the top tier (A.J. Brown), and ranging from there towards (super-talented) CBs (Travis Hunter), elite WR2s (Tee Higgins / Devonta Smith), and smaller-sample injury risks (Rashee Rice). With the exception of A.J. Brown due to age and Higgins/Smith being too often considered WR2s, anyone in this tier could easily be a top-12 Start-Up WR next year, and Higgins+Smith are two of the more likely players to still be in this Tier at worst heading into 2026.
In Start-Up Drafts (Superflex), ideally I would find a way to get two players in the top 3 tiers. That said, WR is the position more than any other where, particularly if I get a top 3 or even top 7 player, I am willing to piece together the rest of the room through the lower tiers. I believe there is going to be more value at the WR position just by nature of so many WRs creating differences between different rankings. If I failed to acquire two players in the top 3 tiers, I would certainly be trying to get more upside in my WR room between Tiers 4 & 5.
Tier 4: Mostly Young, Higher Upside WR2/3s – While there is definitely some WR1 upside in this tier, most of the players here you’re hoping have closer to WR20 production, and you would be quite happy with solid WR2 production from these players. Every player in this tier also has at least two seasons before turning 30 years old, and only D.J. Moore, D.K. Metcalf, Jaylen Waddle, and Brandon Aiyuk will be 27 years old or older by the end of the 2025 season.
Tier 5: Productive Veterans & Highest Upside Day 2 – This tier features a lot of players who would be very intriguing for contenders, even more intriguing than several players in Tier 4. Terry McLaurin & Courtland Sutton are two of my favorite “safe” buys for short-term production, and George Pickens is possibly my favorite “high reward” buy, though it is hard to say as the price continues to rise. Jerry Jeudy does not quite fit this tier, though he does have short term value as a volume asset. He is mostly ranked above some higher-end short term plays due to the “what-if” factor surrounding his late season breakout in 2024. Luther Burden III clearly does not fit the archetype, though his prospect profile pre-draft puts him in a separate tier compared to even Jayden Higgins, who was drafted at a similar point.
Tier 6: The Best of the Rest – It is most important to mention that this tier is down here because of a lack of confidence or floor. A lot of these players– not just the older ones– have a ton of ceiling or possible upside. However, everyone in this tier has potential to be at nearly zero value come 2026.
Tier 7: Fringe Top 50 – This is my quick ranking of the “rest.”
Brief Player Notes
There seems to be a growing consensus around many in Fantasy Football that this is a good year to sell A.J. Brown. Certainly there are trades to be found that could return full value, but Brown is young enough that I would prefer to sell after this year. There’s a chance he has another down season due to injury or anything else, but if he has a season on par with his first two in Philadelphia, it may be easier to sell him next year after banking another year of elite production. At 28/29, Brown will still be there to sell most likely next off-season. Ladd McConkey & Travis Hunter are lower than consensus, but they are each excellent talents who are not very far off the consensus.
Perhaps I should weigh Chris Olave’s concussions more heavily, but right now I lean on the soon-to-be 25-year-old playing a good amount of football over the next five years. The Saints QB situation is concerning, but either Tyler Shough is better than most people expect he is, or the Saints likely take a QB early in the 2026 NFL Draft. Emeka Egbuka is a great prospect, and there are plenty of archetypal reasons to believe he has a higher floor, but in general I don’t consider the late-1st to be higher floor, and the competition is also a barrier to instant production. Egbuka and Matthew Golden have been very similar in my rookie tiers, and I have them both closer to where Golden is currently ranked in Start-Ups. If Brandon Aiyuk’s injury is looking to significantly impact 2025, he will fall behind the safer “re-draft” players.
Terry McLaurin has been a fan favorite for a long time, so I understand the reaction to his best career season, but that elevation seems to be making people almost entirely forget that McLaurin is 30, or will be two weeks into the 2025 season. Courtland Sutton is in arguably a better situation, was spectacular to finish 2024, and is one month younger than McLaurin. Tyreek Hill still has WR1 overall potential, but I don’t usually give much leeway for older players coming off down years. Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall are flipped in my rankings, though Pearsall does have the higher upside. Jalen Coker is the single player that is most off the overall consensus, and while his status as a UDFA is significant, there is a possibility to grow into a #2 role in Carolina.
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TE Note — In general, I might be wrong with the projection on Kelce/Andrews, but I am moving on with the idea that the era of them being difference makers at the TE position even for a single season is over, and with their recent declines, I would rather take a few other options. Perhaps they have more single year upside in particular than I give credit for.
TEs
+ and - numbers are differences against FantasyCalc’s Current Rankings. I removed some of the more narrow differences particularly down tiers in order to keep focus on the substantial differences in each tier.
Tier 1
Brock Bowers
Trey McBride
Tier 2
Sam LaPorta
Tier 3
George Kittle
T.J. Hockenson (+2)
Colston Loveland
Tyler Warren (-3)
Tier 4
David Njoku (+5)
Tucker Kraft
Jonnu Smith (+8)
Tier 5
Harold Fannin Jr. (+12)
Mason Taylor
Hunter Henry (+17)
Evan Engram
Kyle Pitts (-5)
Mark Andrews
Travis Kelce
Dalton Kincaid (-9)
Jake Ferguson
Terrance Ferguson
Elijah Arroyo
Brenton Strange
Isaiah Likely (-12)
Pat Friermuth
Zach Ertz
Cade Otton
Dallas Goedert
Chig Okonkwo
J.T. Sanders
Ben Sinnott
Tier 1: Potential WR1 Outputs – The players in this Tier have excellent outputs for the WR position, with projections of 130-150 Targets for the upcoming season. At TE, they are potential game breakers if they get into the Endzone 8-10+ times in any given season.
Tier 2: Young, Productive, Efficient – This is my only one player tier. Sam LaPorta does not have enough targets to enter the top tier, but his overall output through two seasons is excellent. As one of the highest TE target projections and someone likely to continue to produce TDs at a higher-than-normal rate, LaPorta does stand alone. While most players do have situational increases in targets as well, should anything happen to either of Detroit’s top pass catchers, LaPorta would be one of the only TEs who could plausibly reach Tier 1 volume and outcomes, as his target projection in that situation would easily total 120-130+.
Tier 3: High-Tier Short Term or High-Tier Long Term – Contention window will obviously determine whether or not you are the team targeting George Kittle, but true Tier 1 outcomes at TE are hard to come by, and Kittle does have the potential to be the overall TE1. Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren are obviously top tier talents, though there is natural skepticism at this position, not just because of history, but because it is hard to make it at a position where you are truly looking to be top ~3-5 in order to be relevant. T.J. Hockenson is a blend between the two situations, as he is a bit younger than Kittle, though he has never quite produced at nearly that level himself.
Tier 4: Target Values Tier – This tier is most notable for being the most significantly off-consensus of any individual tier in my rankings. I share the first 7 TEs with the consensus, but the final 5 TEs in the Top 12 on both KTC and FantasyCalc include Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid, and at least one Ravens TE (Isaiah Likely and/or Mark Andrews), but Jonnu Smith does not appear in either Top 12, and David Njoku is 12th/13th on KTC and FantasyCalc. That trio of Smith, Njoku, and Tucker Kraft should be ranked more highly than the Pitts, Kincaid, and Baltimore Ravens grouping of TEs.
Tier 5: The Rest – Keep in mind that the gaps in Tier 5 will appear bigger than they are. Hunter Henry is a borderline top 12 TE for me and the TE30 on FantasyCalc, but the difference between these two rankings on that same trade calculator
There are certainly points where a contender should favor getting someone like Evan Engram, Travis Kelce, or Mark Andrews, but the value I find in Tier 4 makes this often irrelevant. Since I usually have a starting TE, I’m favoring some of the better rookie profiles outside of the top tier like Harold Fannin Jr. and Mason Taylor over the older, declining TEs. Hunter Henry is one of my biggest changes after doing my redraft rankings, as Henry has a path to being his team’s #1 Pass Catcher in 2025. Isaiah Likely has flashed, but I am not nearly confident enough in his transition to being the true #1 TE for this team in an impactful fantasy way, and particularly not considering where he is currently ranked on FantasyCalc (16th) and KTC (9th). I don’t feel particularly low on Likely, but if any significant part of the market considers Likely a top-10 TE, I am quite a bit off the evaluation.
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Full projections should be finished on the next show.
C.J.
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