For more on the Prospect Tiers, see the previous post focusing on the SEC
Big Ten player list(s) after the NFL News + Notes
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News and Notes
Since completing the redraft series on the show, we have had three major market events, particularly when considering how rarely we have major market events during the month of July. Omarion Hampton was already ranked favorably in my redraft rankings, but will now rise likely above even James Cook, potentially even Breece Hall, and could be as high as RB13. Rashee Rice on the other hand was ranked favorably, but will likely fall substantially due to both the suspension and my own hesitancy to draft “stashes” as opposed to players who can help win and establish a safer situation heading into the mid-late season.
Quinshon Judkins is the biggest news story, and is unfortunate for reasons that go far beyond this game. Many are preaching patience when it comes to Judkins, and in general, patience is wise. That said, when it comes to a situation like this particularly before a player has played in the NFL, let alone signed their rookie contract, I believe there is too much focus put into the projected number of suspended games. Judkins is a younger early declare with elite physical talent (RAS), and so the amount of suspended games in-an-of-itself is not a concern. The concern is how this impacts Judkins moving forward. To be clear, I am making no determinations on guilt or innocence, as that might sound like the case. However, it is important to acknowledge that most of these cases that end up being superfluous start in the media or in civil court in my experience. Judkins has already been charged with a crime.
There were very different issues last off-season, but this is the second off-season in a row where Judkins has found himself at the center of turmoil. It was alluded to on the show, and two important considerations need to be made before I say anything else: 1) these items from 2023 are still rumors; 2) it’s important to me that I don’t insinuate that because someone does one thing, they’re more likely to do another, far different, far worse thing. The point is not that these things are correlated, but that there could be a general pattern of issues ranging from a number of different causes.
Setting aside that awkward introduction, Judkins was accused or was rumored to have been disruptive, derogatory to his offensive line in a manner that actually lead to him needing to be pulled from a game, and attempting to hold-out in the middle of a game to get more NIL money.
These were bigger talking points last season, and your public facing, “corporate” shows were very indirect with any reference, but the rumors were prevalent among College Football insiders, even if some were dismissed as being sour grapes from Ole Miss. After a year with Ohio State, no drama, and presumably answering enough questions to be drafted 36th overall in the NFL Draft, it seemed these questions were sufficiently answered, and since the majority of NFL players are actually not the kind that create substantial off-field issues, it seemed unlikely that this was something to worry about anymore. In fact, when considering NIL and the wild west nature, I was honestly optimistic that most of Judkins’ “kind of problems” would be solved by the structure of the NFL.
Now things have changed quite substantially.
This may be too much. This may not hit the mark. But I think it is important to highlight Judkins as transparently as we can at this point, and my grades on Quinshon Judkins were higher than the consensus going into 2025 Rookie Drafts, and now from the early takeaways I see, I am moving Judkins more than most people are and lower than most people are. This is too early to get a firm market, so maybe this is just my bubble, but I see more people alleging this as a buying opportunity than discussing how much this could undermine Judkins’ chances for development. Particularly at the RB position, Judkins has raised the bar of what he needs to do to be worth a headache. While the RB position does have some benefits in this regard — like probably not being the most important position to attend camp — I do not like young players having significant, middle-to-long term disruptions. This is worse than a comparative situation to Travis Etienne Jr. missing his rookie season with injury. That case at least provided a clear timeline, and a complete confidence that Etienne would have major involvement in his second year.
More likely than not that is the case, but the negative outcomes have grown, the zero outcomes have grown, and he at least needs to be stacked up now more with the tier of players who I had ranked more lowly because they had a higher range of zero outcomes — the TEs (Loveland/Warren), the late 1st QB (Dart), and the poor profile WR that isn’t well liked (Golden). At this stage, I would likely take all four of these players over Judkins if I were drafting today. If I spent a top 5 pick on Judkins, maybe I do try to play a gamble of patience, but if I had a rookie draft today, I don’t think I’m going to be the one drafting Judkins.
To put a final philosophical point on this to wrap it up, too often in sports analysis we get consumed with the idea that — if we believe something is more likely than not to happen — we treat that thing as if it is the only thing that can happen. But even an 80/20 bet — something you should bet on as frequently as possible — is going to be wrong 20% of the time. That’s why you never bet your “house;” it could be 80/20, it could be 95/5, but sometimes the 5 represents a greater risk than the 95 off-sets in reward. Even I myself lean towards the idea that the MOST likely outcomes revolve around the idea that this does not impact Quinshon Judkins too much, and I think the market reaction then is to not let it move his market too much. But while that is most likely, all of the arguments that I cling to about RBs being drafted top 40 are legitimately meaningless to me at this point — the point of those ideas is to establish a credible floor. Quinshon Judkins having this charge at this stage pre-contract, pre-proof is the complete desolation of his credible floor. He’s still the same player, but he has lost so many paths in the middle (productive, inefficient players who stick around for several years can easily have utility in fantasy) and has added so many paths in the negative (zero outcome, off-field directly or indirectly given the public nature and pressure increase the likelihood that Judkins not only fails to develop, but is given a tighter leash). Considering this shift in path, things can change rapidly in this setting, but if I’m rookie drafting today, the closest player in my rankings from early post-draft that most represents where Judkins would be now is Luther Burden III, who comes as the top player after the top RBs and the players mentioned above (Loveland, Warren, Dart, Golden).
Sorry for the early TL;DR note; sometimes when something is difficult to talk about, people say less. I commonly find that I say more.
Full disclosure, and I say this not to influence others just being completely candid about myself and my own personal biases: I have a natural inclination to be harsh on these situations and am comfortable moving on from them in fantasy leagues and not really regretting it or looking back. For this reason, for direct fantasy outputs, perhaps this advice / my advice is not the one you want to follow in regard to these particular circumstances. These are simply the thoughts in my own head on a Friday morning as I get ready to push publish.
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BIG TEN PREVIEW
One very minor correction from last show, but I noticed when combining the lists for this show that Eric Singleton Jr. was not marked as an early declare. Singleton is entering his 3rd year in College Football, and he is a potential early declare.
Speaking of that combined list, while the first link here goes to the new list of 57+ Big Ten Players discussed on the show this week, the combined list covers all 137+ players discussed so far.
Combined SEC + Big Ten Player List [LINK 2]
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BIG TEN PROSPECT WATCHLIST — WHO TO KNOW
“26,” “27,” and “28” indicate years the prospect is first eligible. Italics indicate a potential early declare (within the 2026 class). Feel free to comment on any omissions or potential errors in Draft Class. Everything is accurate to the best of my knowledge.
Big Ten (57)
QBs (13)
(3) Drew Allar, Penn St. (26) ; Dylan Raiola, Nebraska (27) ; Bryce Underwood, Michigan (28)
(4) Nico Iamaleava, UCLA via Tennessee (26) ; Husan Longstreet, USC (28) ; Julian Sayin, Ohio St. (27) ; Tavien St. Claire, Ohio St. (28)
(6) Aidan Chiles, Michigan St. (26) ; Drake Lindsey, Minnesota (27) ; Fernando Mendoza, Indiana via California (26) ; Dante Moore, Oregon (26) ; Malik Washington, Maryland (28) ; Demond Williams Jr., Washington (27)
GCQ+: Luke Altmyer, Illinois (26)
RBs (19)
(1) Nicholas Singleton, Penn St. (26)
(9) Jonah Coleman, Washington (26) ; Justice Haynes, Michigan via Alabama (26) ; Makhi Hughes, Oregon via Tulane (26) ; Bo Jackson, Ohio St. (28) ; Dilin Jones, Wisconsin (27) ; Waymond Jordan, USC via JUCO (26) ; Jordan Marshall, Michigan (27) ; James Peoples, Ohio St. (27) ; Darius Taylor, Minnesota (26)
(9) Kaytron Allen, Penn St. (26) ; C.J. Campbell Jr., Rutgers via Florida Atlantic (26) ; Jace Clarizio, Michigan State (28) ; Darrion Dupree, Wisconsin (27) ; Kaden Feagin, Illinois (26) ; Quinton Martin, Penn State (27) ; Nolan Ray, Maryland (26) ; Brandon Tullis, Michigan St. (27) ; A.J. Turner Minnesota via Marshall (26)
WRs (19)
(2) Makai Lemon, USC (26) ; Jeremiah Smith, Ohio St. (27)
(5) Denzel Boston, Washington (26) ; Nick Marsh, Michigan St. (27) ; Dakorien Moore, Oregon (28) ; Quincy Porter, Ohio St. (28) ; Carnell Tate, Ohio St. (26)
(12) Hudson Clement, Illinois via West Virginia (26) ; K.J. Duff, Rutgers (27) ; Malik Elzy, Illinois (26) ; Mylan Graham, Ohio St. (27) ; Nyziah Hunter, Nebraska via California (26) ; Dane Key, Nebraska via Kentucky (26) ; Ja’Kobi Lane, USC (26) ; Trebor Pena, Penn St. via Syracuse (26) ; Elijah Sarratt, Indiana (26) ; Ian Strong, Rutgers (26) ; Nitro Tuggle, Purdue via Georgia (27) ; Griffin Wilde, Northwestern via South Dakota State (26)
Honorable Discussion: Evan Stewart, Oregon (26)
TEs (6)
Dorian Fleming, Maryland via Georgia State (26) ; Max Klare, Ohio State via Purdue (26) ; Luke Reynolds, Penn State (27) ; Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon (26) ; Holden Staes, Indiana via Tennessee (26) ; Jack Velling, Michigan State (26)
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As always, the podcast version walks through these players in a bit of detail. I may also be producing further write-ups for this content when I translate it to social media, and those write-ups will make it into the substack as well. There are a number of specific notes I could make, like Nick Marsh and Dakorien Moore being my two favorite WRs in the 2nd Tier, but these notes I’m mostly saving for the Rankings update on Tier(s) 1 & 2 in Part 4 of this series.
Part 3 will cover the ACC, Big 12, and any other prospect I might decide to discuss.
Thanks,
C.J.
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