I mentioned on the previous episode that I would edit / add the Burden + Johnson Deeper Dives a bit later. Unfortunately, I only just now finished the write-ups. That said, this is going to be a long process, so if you want to keep up with the newest Deeper Dives, those are on the Audio show, and I’ll keep the written versions coming as well, though they may be a week late from time-to-time.
Expect Deeper Dive write-ups on Tetairoa McMillan, Ollie Gordon II, and Tre Harris by the next post. Their grades and age are available on these new documents which will be updated regularly. The Deeper Dives will be moved collectively to a similar document soon.
Grades List: https://docs.google.com/document/d/14JvoKyXSAZQ_FTP2jCT4dDmEjodJeD1tb681PJAyeJc/edit?usp=sharing
Age List: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1LM_STIBkqcqeoodeV1ZfXqaZMSLrk1H_7-CNbvOI-Xk/edit?usp=sharing
DEEPER DIVE #2:
Luther Burden, WR, Missouri
Age: 21.09 (21 Years, 9 Months as of Sept. 1st, 2025)
Height: 5’ 11”
Weight: 211 lbs
Burden may never have quite been Jeremiah Smith as a HS prospect, but he was certainly a highly coveted 5-Star recruit. Burden was the 3rd overall prospect by the On3 Consensus in the 2022 HS class, and while no HS prospect should be seen as a sure thing, or perhaps even likely, Burden was in that very next tier where you can actually be a bit confident. Burden is not the tallest player, but his build supports his archetype well as a player: Burden is thickly built and compact, which gives confidence that his ability as a YAC receiver who can make defenders miss or run through tackles in space should be able to translate to the next level.
While Burden was solid as a true freshman, it was the breakout sophomore season in 2023 that helped confirm Burden as a top-tier prospect. With 86 Receptions, 1,212 Yards, and 9 TDs, Burden had a fantastic season for a true sophomore. However, Burden failed to replicate that success in 2024. Not only that, but Burden started to slow down significantly after just the first 6 games of 2023. In those 6 games, Burden had 54 Receptions, 793 Yards, and 5 TDs. In the 19 Games since, Burden has 93 Receptions, 1,093 Yards, and 10 TDs. Those numbers aren’t terrible by any means, but 19 Games is a few too many to be having only 1,000 - 1,100 yards. That said, Missouri’s offense as a whole took a sharp downturn in 2024. Burden did manage to have over 25% of the Receiving Yards and 50% of the Receiving TDs in 2024. While his Y/RR did decline, it remained 2.32, a very solid number. It’s also important to note that not every number for Burden declined, and Burden’s 29 MTF was first among Power 4 WRs. That creation ability is what makes Burden so intriguing despite this downturn: Burden possesses the kind of ability that could show up as a focal point, or be highlighted as a #2.
WR is the trickiest position to give solid takes on from YouTube videos, but I have selected two videos to try and display a few traits of Burden’s.
The goal of the first video is to showcase just some basic natural ball skills. There’s nothing too complicated at 0:00, 0:28, and 0:45, but Burden works back towards the ball, uses his hands, and at 0:20 shows an ability to immediately turn upfield and run. However, it is the second video that showcases the core of Burden’s talents.
There again are not too many plays here in the Boston College game, but some of the upfield burst and tackle breaking is on display between plays at 0:30 and 0:57. Burden does not only evade tacklers by moving laterally, but also showcases an ability to put his head down and barrel through a lesser defender. While this game is mostly showcasing these YAC plays for me, Burden does adjust well to a tipped pass at the beginning of this video, which is replayed at 0:20. This is another minor play, but it does showcase Burden flashing on-field concentration.
My own first ranking for the 2025 class was not too long after Burden’s initial hot streak, and at that point he was declared the early King of the Class. Even early in this season, I did hesitate to move both McMillan and Jeanty over Burden. At this point though, I do have Burden with a slightly lower grade than McMillan, but still have him firmly in the first round. At top 20, I do not expect Burden to be a sure thing, but to have a reasonable chance at a floor with a very high ceiling. This is both my grade and my projection for Luther Burden III as of now.
DEEPER DIVE #3:
Kaleb Johnson, RB, Iowa
Age: 22.01
Height: 6’ 0”
Weight: 225 lbs
One of the biggest surprises of the 2024 College Football Season, Kaleb Johnson did flash a bit as a freshman, but was largely forgotten about after a disappointing 2023 campaign. Now, he is among the first players to declare for the draft early in 2024. Johnson’s size and ideal build are evident immediately, and while he is not necessarily young “for an early declare,” Johnson is still a very young RB heading into his presumed rookie season. While Johnson does appear to have many of those evident physical traits we seek out in RBs, it is important to note that he was not the most highly regarded prospect coming out of HS. Johnson was a 3-Star prospect with an 88 out of 100 grade from the On3 consensus. This is one of the advantages of having that ideal build, as while we can debate the explosive abilities of Johnson, it is undeniable that he possesses excellent size.
Through his first two seasons in College Football, Kaleb Johnson had compiled only 1,242 Rushing Yards. This wasn’t too bad for a young player, but his most recent breakout season surpassed 1,500 Rushing Yards and 20 Rushing TDs. Importantly, Johnson also showcased a crucial combination of explosive play ability (28 Carries of 15+ Yards) and generating missed tackles (69 MTF). Both of these numbers are a very solid rate on Johnson’s 240 attempts. A few of these numbers could just be a small-ish sample noise, but Johnson did not have a fumble in 2024 after having 2 previously in his career. While all of this is very impressive, Johnson often finds himself closer to the bottom of his tier consistently because of his lack of receiving work. Johnson had 22 Receptions, 188 Yards, and 2 TDs. These are not terrible numbers, but they do not necessarily sell the upside on 3rd down. This is a bit of an arbitrary number to use, but in 12 games, Johnson surpassed 10 Receiving Yards three times. He did have exactly 9-10 a few times, but only 3 times did Johnson go over 10 yards. To my own eye, he seems at the very least competent, but statistics here are clearly middle of the road at best. And to my own eye as well, it should not be surprising if the peak was simply “competent.”
For this overview, we’re going to look at Johnson’s game against Minnesota.
While many bigger RBs can succeed at breaking tackles with pure size, the ability to shake, wiggle, and move laterally, such as at 0:30, is what allows Johnson to break tackles and create space at an even higher rate. In particular though, the most impressive trait from Johnson in this video might actually be his patience. Johnson shows a combination of allowing plays to develop / finding cutback lanes (4:55), and he is also more than willing to bounce a play outside (4:10). With just a small crease, Johnson has shown at least some explosive ability to run towards daylight (5:35). The exact level of his athleticism will hopefully be answered by the combine at least in some manner, but these plays particularly at his size do suggest that Johnson has more than capable NFL athleticism. The last item to note was actually a bit more of a negative: this is something Johnson is obviously going to deal with as so many other RBs do as well, but it did seem obvious throughout this video that Johnson’s biggest weakness as a runner was when he gets chopped down by low hits. 1:40 is one such example of a hit like this. Still, while Johnson may not be perfect, his ability to do so many things so well is likely to translate at the next level. With draft capital, it is fair to assume that Johnson would also be in line for a sizable role.
There has been some light buzz recently that Johnson could threaten the early 2nd or even the late 1st round. I’m not quite there on my grade for Johnson, but he is at the very least a clear Day 2 RB, and I would go even further to say top 75 at the very least. While Devin Neal was a later 3rd, priority 4th round draft pick, Johnson is a Late 2nd / Early 3rd. This would align him with the very top of the 2024 Class, though it does seem at this point that we’ll have at least one grade higher than Late 2nd in this class.
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Thanks,
C.J.
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