On the Podcast Today
NFL Weekly Notes
Loveland & Royals Deeper Dives (Write-Ups next Show)
Todd McShay’s Top 250 Puzzle + Draft Buzz
Playoff Round 1 Preview
Future Schedule
//
I will be updating the Grades and Age list from last week before long.
The Age list will be getting a significant update. Some grades change in a small way when I do these Deeper Dives, so I don’t want to include Grades on players I have not done. However, I’ve realized obviously that player’s birthdates will not change, and so part of the delay for the Age List this week is that I’m going to go ahead and add every player (Senior or Declared) that I am confident will be a member of the 2025 Class and have a Deeper Dive to give further context on the age list. I didn’t want to post old links here, but those links can be found on the previous post for episode 70.
//
DEEPER DIVE #4:
Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
Age: 22.05
Height: 6’ 5”
Weight: Unlisted
By far the cleanest evaluation in this class, Tetairoa McMillan began his career as a coveted prospect, and then spent his entire time in College Football dominating statistically. McMillan spent two seasons in the Pac-12 and one season in the Big 12, and it is preferable to play in the SEC or Big 10, but ultimately this is a minor counterpoint in the grand scheme of how good Tetairoa McMillan has been. He was not quite as highly regarded as Luther Burden out of HS, but McMillan was in that very next tier of prospects with a fringe-5-star grade. From there, McMillan spent the next three years leading all potential early declares in Receiving Yards. He also never missed a game playing all 37 of 37 potential games with Arizona during the last three years.
Over the course of the last two years and 25 Games Played, Tetairoa McMillan has totaled 2,721 Yards, and 18 TDs. On the surface, McMillan performed slightly worse in year three, but even just playing 12 Games (no bowl) as opposed to 13 alone off-sets this difference quite a bit (McMillan had 107.8 Rec YPG in 2023 and 109.9 Rec YPG in 2024). Most notably though, the Arizona offense as a whole took a dive. Arizona went from a team producing 4,000 Passing Yards and 35 Passing TDs to just under 3,000 Passing Yards and 18 Passing TDs. Because McMillan maintained his numbers through this downturn, he actually performed quite a bit better when it came to proportional output. McMillan had 45% of his team’s receiving yards and 44% of their Receiving TDs, about 10-15% higher than the previous season. Having nearly half of his team’s Yards / TDs is a dominant ratio. Most impressively at all though are the advanced numbers. McMillan flashes a very low Drop% and an impressive Contested Catch ability, but it is primarily the YAC and Missed Tackles Forced ability that needs attention. The other two are assumed because of his size, but McMillan is also a fantastic receiver with the ball in his hands. In fact, according to PFF, his total # of Missed Tackles Forced was second among Power conference WRs, finishing only 1 behind Luther Burden. Considering McMillan’s game is far less predicated on the ability to generate YAC, this creates a lot of intrigue and upside for a player like McMillan.
In order to showcase some of these traits from McMillan, we’ll use his game against Kansas St.
Size is certainly not a reason to take it for granted that a player will have a good catch radius and strong receiving ability, but Tetairoa McMillan does showcase that specifically nearly every time he takes the football field. This game is not necessarily the best to showcase extension catches, but through various levels of traffic at 1:55, 5:05, and 5:50, McMillan uses his hands and retains possession of the football. And while McMillan will get no credit for it, at 5:55, he has an insane no catch. There’s also not much to see in terms of route running throughout this video (or really most highlight videos), but we do at least get to see some nuance in spacing (5:10) and route pacing (0:50) from McMillan. While these are nice plays, in general the biggest knock against McMillan may come from this lack of a diverse route tree. The biggest variable in evaluating McMillan might be how willing you are to believe in a player’s ability to add to their route tree post-college. Despite this potential flaw, McMillan still has a sneaky amount of upside as a pure playmaker. As mentioned in the statistics section, the area that intrigues me the most for McMillan’s upside is how hard he is to tackle (1:34, 2:25, 2:57, 4:06). While most of these highlighted plays do not showcase a lot of yardage gain, they do show a player who is fundamentally difficult to tackle.
Not everything about McMillan is perfect, but most things that are not perfect are simply that: not perfect. There are very few areas to be truly concerned, if any. The biggest would be in route running, but at WR, the traits and production mesh enough for a very high grade on my board. Tetairoa McMillan is not a “generational” prospect, or whatever we call the tier that houses prospects like Ja’Marr Chase and Marvin Harrison Jr., but he comes in at the next grade after that tier— a rare grade that actually implies strong confidence in both floor and ceiling for a WR. For my list, that translates into top 10 Draft Capital, and the highest grade in this class (not including Hunter).
//
DEEPER DIVE #5:
Ollie Gordon II, RB, Oklahoma St.
Age: 21.08
Height: 6’ 2”
Weight: Unlisted
Ollie Gordon was not quite a top-200 prospect in the On3 consensus, but he was fairly close to that grade and had a 4-Star grade on most of the major prospect services (though he did have a 3-Star grade on 24/7 Sports). Like a few different players in these deeper dives, while the prospect grades are not great, the combination of solid grades and excellent size at least showcase some NFL Trait floor. Gordon is by no means in the “super young” tier like a Braelon Allen or Dylan Sampson from this class, but he is a very young player overall, and should factor into his evaluation as well.
Gordon took the league by storm during the first half of 2023, with his performance peaking against West Virginia (282 Rushing Yards) and Cincinnati (271 Rushing Yards). During his most impressive 5 game stretch, not only was he getting significant volume, but was averaging 9 YPC. However, the problems with Gordon began far before the beginning of 2024. Even down the stretch of 2023 following the WVU/Cincy games, Gordon had only a 4.5 YPC and was bottled up in a few games against superior defenses. In these games, Gordon’s biggest issue was likely exposed: while he is a surprisingly dynamic RB with good pass catching traits for his size in space, he does not run as well or consistently between the tackles as you would expect for someone his size. Gordon has a solid number of MTF in his career (125), but as a ratio of his carries, he scores behind most of the RBs ranked in this class (.234). That said, if Gordon is drafted highly or otherwise finds himself in position to be a leading RB for an NFL franchise, he has massive upside for fantasy football. In 17 Games since that Cincinnati game, a full NFL-Season worth of performances, Gordon has totaled 306 Carries, 1,399 Rushing Yards, 47 Receptions, 308 Receiving Yards, and 22 Total TDs. This would be a phenomenal fantasy season, but the 4.5 YPA against the Big 12 is not exactly the efficiency we want to see for the next level. In total, as a receiver, Ollie Gordon leaves Oklahoma St. with 80 Receptions, 585 Yards, and 4 TDs. Even across 3 Seasons, that is an excellent total for any back, let alone a big potential bruiser like Ollie Gordon.
Most often, for the “Film/Traits” section, I look for a video from the current season. However, particularly with the narrative surrounding Gordon, I wanted to look towards his 2023 tape, and selected a (bowl) game against Texas A&M.
This is more of a statistical observation, but it is worth first pointing out that the biggest thing to see throughout this video is just the consistency (or lack thereof) with Ollie Gordon. While many plays can be attributed to the offensive line, Gordon is routinely stuffed and has a fairly low 44.4% Success% on the game. In total, he has 15 carries that were not “successful” according to his down & distance. In particular, I would keep an eye on his explosive ability in his feet from the very first step. This is a trait that in my eyes is crucial for most modern RBs, but I question it throughout this video with Ollie Gordon. All that said, the very first carry of this video also shows what Ollie Gordon can do with a crease. He is a RB who, particularly with momentum, can become very explosive. And at 3:05, we see him make an adjustment as a receiver. The combination of his size and his receiving ability again showcases why Gordon can have such a high upside if he does maintain a job as a starting RB at the next level.
Ollie Gordon II has immense fantasy upside if he is drafted highly, but I have concerns that the kind of RB a team would want him to be– a tough between the tackles back that can consistently gain short yardage– is not who he actually is. He is a RB who does most of his damage in space, and I don’t see the explosive footwork to be the best at the NFL level or to consistently create those opportunities for himself. If Ollie Gordon is drafted in the top 50, I wouldn’t have a problem taking him in the back half of the Fantasy 1st round. For the NFL, he has closer to the same grade I put on Audric Estime and Braelon Allen. He’s a better receiving back, and for that reason alone he may score the highest of the trio, but they are fairly similar. Right now, I have Gordon as a clear Day 3 grade, but still around the 4th / 5th fringe. While Gordon has that upside I keep mentioning, I doubt I do many deep dives on RBs I’ll have ranked much lower, and I don’t anticipate Gordon being in the top 5 and maybe the top 10 of my RBs depending on who declares.
//
DEEPER DIVE #6:
Tre Harris, WR, Ole Miss
Age: 23.06
Height: 6’ 3”
Weight: 210 lbs
There are numerous variables that make prospects difficult to analyze, but scheme and system have to be chief among them. For Harris, as well as many players coming out of Ole Miss the last few years, it is hard to trust the numbers. It might be easier if Harris was considered an elite physical talent, but that has never necessarily been the case. Harris was a 3-Star recruit out of HS, and while he was bumped to a 4-Star after 3 Years at Louisiana Tech, Harris was still considered a fairly low 4-Star player. Still, it is encouraging that he was given a bump after three years in College. Harris spent two more years at Ole Miss, and has been an excellent receiver in terms of his efficiency. It does need to be mentioned though that Harris has missed time in each of the past two seasons. Harris did not miss many games in 2023, but he was certainly hurt in several, and the route counts alone can give us an objective idea that in at least 2 games that Harris recorded statistics, he barely played at all.
Without adjusting for any competition, missed time, or anything else, Tre Harris has played 20 Games in an Ole Miss uniform and has put up 114 Receptions, 2,015 Yards, and 15 TDs. Not only that, but as mentioned above, Harris missed time in several games due to injury, not just last year, but this year as well. Because of that, he has a very impressive 3.94 Y/RR. That number individually is one of the more insane statistics we will cover in these Deeper Dives, particularly for a 500+ Route sample. The issue though goes back again to that very first line: this is just a very tricky environment to read. The Jaxson Dart Deeper Dive will help to give further context here as well, but Dart has been considerably hot & cold throughout his collegiate career, which showcases a general overwhelming success or failure of this offense. Harris had massive games of 200+ yards in the last two years. He has also had games against Georgia and Mississippi St. in 2023 where he was very ineffective. It’s hard to know if he would not have one of those games this year, or did not due to injury. On top of this, it is hard to know how much is Harris when his replacement can do so well; one of Tre Harris’ injured games this season aligned with one of Dart’s hot games. The result for the Ole Miss receiving core was WR Jordan Watkins putting up 8 Receptions, 254 Yards, and 5 Receiving TDs. The idea that a fairly minor prospect in relief can have that kind of performance in an SEC game is the exact reason why we have to have some level of skepticism even about a player who has a 3.32 Y/RR against the SEC across about 300 routes. Harris scores well enough in MTF and in converting contested opportunities, but does not statistically excel well enough in either to give particular credit.
Harris is like most WRs in that if you really want to scout them from scratch, it is necessary to be using the All-22, but to showcase some traits, I have chosen his game against LSU, found below.
There are more representative traits to discuss of Tre Harris’ game, but if you start the video at the very beginning, the elephant in the room will be the egregious drop to start this game. Harris has had a few concentration drops in his career, but they have not been nearly bad enough to warrant concern if he is a skilled and developed player elsewhere. What gives perhaps a better insight into the difficulties in scouting Harris are the quick hitch (0:16) and shallow cross (0:21) which represent a fair proportion of his routes and success. While statistically there are some questions about consistency, at 0:45, Harris showcases the kind of upside he can potentially have as a contested catch WR with an excellent catch in the endzone. There’s not a lot of route running to be found in this video, but conceptually, the routes like those at 1:15 that come back to the football will be crucial for Tre Harris. Again, it is not much to be seen, but the last two plays on this video are worth highlighting as a lack of separation is a major concern for Tre Harris. When we don’t get a lot of opportunities to see these genuine route wins, and when there is some question about separation, a few of these plays where Harris is not separating vertically are worth keeping an eye on.
Harris is a player that a lot of analysts seem to love and easily justify that love with the big explosive games against the SEC. However, we’ve seen this song and dance a lot from this offensive system, including in Tre Harris’ absence this very same season. Harris does have traits that NFL teams covet, but I’m unsure if he’ll ever separate well enough to be a top tier player at the next level. A lot of that production is on schemed deep passes, hitches, and shallow crosses. Harris is also a 5th year player, which analytically isn’t great at WR. He still has a 3rd Round grade on my board currently, but the fact that he’s got a chance to be ranked so highly at WR is more a testament to the fact that the WR class this year is a bit down.
//
SCHEDULE NOTES
On the show, I mentioned having the schedule added here, but I do not have a detailed write-up yet. The important thing to note is that there are a good number of Bowl Games on 12/28 that features players like Shedeur Sanders, Cam Ward, Travis Hunter, Jayden Higgins, Omarion Hampton, and more in what should be their final college appearance. We also know that in bowls after 12/28 through 1/2-1/3 include players like Jaxson Dart, Raheim Sanders, and Mason Taylor. While I’m not sure when all Deeper Dives will be, it is very likely these bowl-related Deeper Dives happen soon after these bowls are completed. I’m working on these profiles now, which should make them easier to produce. Expect one show next week, one show between the 28th and Jan 1st, and shows to primarily be weekly covering those players as well as the playoff losers.
The goal is to complete all of the Deeper Dives, or at least in the first round of Deeper Dives before the Senior Bowl / Combine, before the Senior Bowl begins.
//
PLAYOFFS ROUND 1
Friday
Indiana @ Notre Dame @ 8PM on ABC
Key Players: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame ; Mitchell Evans, TE, Notre Dame ; Ty’son Lawton, RB, Indiana ; Elijah Sarratt, WR, Indiana
The game with potentially the smallest amount of overall talent for our purposes, this game still features a potential RB1 in the 2026 class in Jeremiyah Love. While not a prototypical RB1, Love flashes fantastic upside as both a rusher and receiver. Aside from Love, most of the prospects in this game register as Day 3 at best on my rankings.
Saturday
SMU @ Penn State @ Noon on TNT/MAX
Key Players: Drew Allar, QB, Penn State ; Nicholas Singleton, RB, Penn State ; Kaytron Allen, RB, Penn State ; Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State ; Brashard Smith, RB, SMU
While QB Drew Allar may have announced his decision to return to Penn State— as least as of now— he is still a top tier talent to pay attention to heading into next year. Allar (alongside QBs like Garrett Nussmeier) could help elevate the 2026 QB Class considerably. RB Nicholas Singleton has showcased a fantastic growth as a receiver this year, so while he has been a bit inconsistent, the upside is evident. However, while Penn State went into the year hoping to have the Top QB and RB in the class, they ended up with the nation’s top TE in Mackey Award winner Tyler Warren. Warren is a fantastic, explosive weapon who should see his stock continue to rise on the big stage. For SMU, Brashard Smith is a hot name likely due to the streak the NFL is on with Day 3 former-WR-turned-RBs. Smith does not quite play to the same level of physicality that either Tracy or Guerendo possessed, but he is still an intriguing RB prospect for the next level.
Clemson @ Texas @ 4 PM on TNT/MAX
Key Players: Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas ; Arch Manning, QB, Texas (2026) ; Isaiah Bond, WR, Texas ; Matthew Golden, WR, Texas ; Ryan Wingo, WR, Texas (2027) ; Gunnar Helm, TE, Texas ; Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson ; Phil Mafah, RB, Clemson ; Antonio Williams, WR, Clemson ; T.J. Moore, WR, Clemson (2027) ; Bryant Wesco, WR, Clemson (2027), Jake Brinningstool, TE, Clemson
Potentially the deepest game in terms of overall talent, the most intriguing question in this game will be if we see any Arch Manning, or if this game is fully on the shoulders of Quinn Ewers. Aside from the QBs, top WR Isaiah Bond re-injured his ankle which caused his initial downturn in production this year. The playoff could be a huge opportunity for someone like Bond, so that injury is pretty substantial. On the Clemson side, QB Cade Klubnik has made massive leaps and bounds this year, but he still struggles with ball placement and passing consistency. He does have a fine stable of WRs though, with Antonio Williams as well as the freshman T.J. Moore & Bryant Wesco. Neither Williams, Moore, or Wesco have numbers that scream off the page, but they are all fantastic pass catchers with NFL potential.
Tennessee @ Ohio State @ 8PM on ABC
Key Players: TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State ; Quinshon Judkins, RB, Ohio State ; Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State ; Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State (2026) ; Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State (2027) ; Nico Iamaleava, QB, Tennessee (2026) ; Dylan Sampson, RB, Tennessee ; Bru McCoy, WR, Tennessee
It has not quite been the season many expected, but Ohio State still has potentially the most talent at the RB/WR positions in the sport. Henderson and Egbuka are both seniors who will enter the NFL Draft, and Judkins may follow as well, but Ohio State also possesses a ton of future talent with Carnell Tate (2026) and Jeremiah Smith (2027). For Tennessee, QB Nico Iamaleava has struggled more than we’d like to see in 2024, but he is still an immense talent capable of going #1 overall next year. The heartbeat of the offense has been RB Dylan Sampson, who has over 20 Rushing TDs this year.
-
BOWL
Tulane v Florida @ 3:30 PM / Friday 12/20 on ESPN2
Key Players: DJ Lagway, QB, Florida (2027) ; Jaden Baugh, RB, Florida (2027) ; Makhi Hughes, RB, Tulane (2026)
No detailed notes here, but this should be a DJ Lagway game, so there is a potential to see a candidate for the 1.01 in 2027.
//
Thanks,
C.J.
Share this post