On the podcast today:
NFL Weekly Notes
Hampton, Ayomanor, White, & Smith deeper dives
CFB Playoff Rant & Reactions (down with Herbstreit)
BRIEF 12/28 Bowl Preview — Ward & Sanders are likely playing
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Grades List 2.0: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1s6nZn3LBIHlB3HsO5iLgkxsbLylnIH8aKhTPWmjbFy0/edit?usp=sharing
Age List 2.0: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zBHSbqkWDi6Flr8n2ar_zlRnBAlFtAO4bKMf6imJTFg/edit?usp=sharing
The Age List has been updated to reflect every (or at least most) players I know will get a Deeper Dive. I’m releasing Grades as I do the work, but coming to the obvious realization that DOBs will not change, I have updated the age list with players from future Deeper Dives.
The Age List itself begins on Page 2, as the age list needs a bit more context.
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DEEPER DIVE #7:
Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan
Age: 21.05
Height: 6’ 5”
Weight: 245 lbs
As the first TE Deeper Dive of the season, it is important to remember that this is a position quite unlike any other in Fantasy Football because our number of hits is so low. Because of this, it is far harder to establish criteria for a TE. That said, it is hard to imagine many basic criteria that Colston Loveland would not score highly on. Loveland has excellent size even if he is a bit lean, has been productive (particularly proportionally) throughout his career, and has done all of this while being, so far, the youngest player we have included a Deeper Dive for. Considering this age in context, even some of the plays from the end of Loveland’s freshman year gave some indication that he could be a developing product. Physically, there seems to be at least some indication that at least in the 40, Loveland has a potential to test very, very well. So we’ll have to see if that testing time and the perception of his athleticism changes his grade moving forward.
This may sound like a wild statement to make, but you could genuinely argue that Loveland is one of the most focal pass catchers to any individual offense. His numbers in a vacuum may not suggest this, but Colston Loveland missed two games this year. In those two games, Michigan threw for a combined 16 Receptions and 94 Passing Yards. 47 Passing Yards per Game without Loveland is an abomination to modern football. So while the offense only had 150 Pass YPG in games where Loveland did happen to play, this was over triple what the team had done in their games without Loveland. The surface statistics of 56 / 582 / 5 may leave something to be desired, but for a TE the numbers are not too bad, and in context of the offense Loveland had 34.3% of Receptions, 38.8% of Yards, and 45.5% of TDs for Michigan in 2024. All of that said, this is the point where things start to turn a bit on Loveland. Individually, neither contested catch conversion (which is very affected by poor ball placement) or Missed Tackles Forced are numbers that I rely upon, but frankly I would like to see them be a bit stronger than what we’ve seen from Colston Loveland. In particular, while Loveland is very young, there is very little evidence that he is going to develop as a ball carrier that can make defenders miss or run through tacklers. He has effective vision and speed for the position, so I don’t want to completely diminish his YAC potential, but his YAC potential seems highly limited by his ability to generate broken tackles. PFF credits Loveland with only 3 MTF this year and 4 in 2023. In comparison, Tyler Warren has 17 MTF just this year, over twice as many as Loveland has had the previous two years combined. While there are a lot of subtleties with Loveland that we will continue to discuss below, Loveland is far more likely to be a Zach Ertz than an elite explosive TE given this idea.
We’re only going to have a few plays from most TE games, but I have selected Loveland’s game against Michigan State this year to discuss some of his traits.
Loveland’s tape study is a bit tricky because while he does showcase that vertical athleticism that we need to see for upside at the next level, the main selling points that would support taking Loveland over Warren are far more nuanced concepts that can be a bit hard to judge particularly in context. Examples of plays like this include 0:20 and 0:45. These plays you could easily argue are more about the scheme and the defense, though I would also credit Loveland with “selling” at least significantly enough what his intentions were. A play like 0:20 looks extremely simple, but from what we know about the difficulty of playing this position, it seems far more likely that Loveland simply makes plays like this look easy with a nuanced feel of the game around him. In fact I don’t have a pure point of comparison here, but despite being two years younger, there are ample arguments that Loveland is the more NFL-ready TE given the hybrid-nature of Tyler Warren. Aside from this, in the first play of the video you can also see some of this savviness as Loveland does not break through tacklers, but does showcase patience, vision, and utilizing his blocks as a ball carrier. Finally, it is not much, but routes out of the slot like at 0:34 will be crucial to establishing the value of Loveland long term.
Colston Loveland has been my TE1 throughout most of the early process, and that is largely a principle play. Loveland caught my eye in his Freshman year, and so while I do not have “Early Declare” and “Breakout Production” thresholds at this position, Loveland even flashing seemed large for an 18 YO. That said, taking a hard look at Loveland, I have to acknowledge that “growth” is not just about age but about signs. While it is only one trait, I have very little confidence that Loveland will ever be a better-than-average YAC TE. That brings up a hard question: what if he is not as good as we think he is in other areas? That is the concern when you find a specific limitation like this. All of that said, Loveland still has size, likely strong testing athleticism, and has been a productive WR particularly when leaning on proportions. I’m going back-and-forth between using the word “Fringe” or “Late,” but right now for the actual NFL, Colston Loveland has a fringe 1st Grade, which would likely end up being a top-32 player considering the surrounding class.
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DEEPER DIVE #8:
Jalen Royals, WR, Utah St.
Age: 22.06
Height: 6’ 0”
Weight: 205 lbs
The first Group of 5 player we’ve evaluated and a Senior from those lower conferences, like most G5 players, Royals had very little HS profile. In fact, Royals spent his first season post-HS at the JUCO level before transferring to Utah St., and even at the point of that transfer, he had not yet garnered any buzz from prospect services like 24/7 and On3. Royals spent his second post-HS year (2022) playing primarily Special Teams it seems, and then Royals became a prolific player for Utah St. during the 2023 and 2024 seasons. Royals did have a foot injury end his season this year, so he has really only had 1.5 years of production, but Royals has done well to produce during those 1.5 years. Royals is not a particularly large WR, but compared to G5-classmate Ricky White III, Royals is far more traditionally NFL sized with a more compact build compared to White. Royals is fairly young for a 4th-year player and is roughly the same age as early declares Tetairoa McMillan and Omarion Hampton, so that is one positive in his favor.
The 1.5 years of production were mentioned above, but in his 20 Games with Utah St. between 2023 and 2024, Royals compiled 126 Receptions, 1,914 Yards, and 21 TDs. Proportionally, he scores well in 2023, but probably not quite as strongly as I would have hoped. In 2024, he did far better proportionally with over 41% of his team’s yards and TDs during his 6 core games against the FBS while healthy, but this is a 6 game sample from a 4th-year player in a smaller conference. That has to give at least some significant pause. As a ball carrier, Royals scored well in forcing missed tackles with 16 in 2023 and 17 in the abbreviated 2024 Season. Obviously the quality of defenders is far lower here, but that is at least some reason combined with the solid frame and size to believe Royals can translate at the next level. One potential concern that sends us into our next section is how much more Royals was used this year in the slot. To be clear, it was not a lot, but there was a significant increase according to PFF from a single-digit Snap% to closer to 22% of his snaps coming from the slot. If Royals does have the capacity to be an inside-outside player, this can be a good thing for the next level. However, if that is an indication of some limitations showing at the G5 level, that is certainly a concern for an NFL translation. Because ultimately, when it comes to evaluating players like this at the G5 level, we’re rarely going to walk away feeling that they’re “bad.” The question will be if they are good enough to make this massive leap.
For Jalen Royals, while we will be using the last game of his CFB career against New Mexico, my biggest film related takeaway on Royals is not something I find easily on YouTube film, and that is simply that I do not find him to be very strong off the line. I’ve seen some commentary that he scores well in beating press coverage and maybe that is true that through the competition level, he is producing on those plays, but I personally believe Royals’ release package will need significant refinement to reach NFL caliber. That may be found in this New Mexico video, but it is more the other traits we will be focused on.
At 0:45 and 1:08, we see a few of these YAC plays including Jalen Royals bouncing it to the outside. Similarly to how the second section concluded, there is no question to whether Royals is fast, but some of the reported times list him at a 4.38 player. At least to my eye, these plays do not showcase 4.38 explosiveness. He also makes contested plays at 0:00 and 2:28 showcasing a nice variety of these skill sets. Finally, while it is not my intention to put random players on blast and maybe this player ultimately ends up making me look foolish, at 2:00 you get at least some indication of what Royals has to compete with in terms of opposing athletes; the recovery speed from the opposing corner is quite poor. Royals checks quite a few boxes with the traits on film, but there is still ample question as to whether he is performing well enough given his age and relative level.
Jalen Royals is a player who has become a trendy sleeper name on X/Twitter as a player who has a variety of intriguing traits and solid production in a questionable WR class. While I do understand all of the appeals of Royals, to put it in the most blunt and layman way, I am simply not impressed enough for a player at this level and caliber of competition. Perhaps it was the games I selected, but the suddenness in particular for Royals was something that concerns me moving into the next level. Still, as a potential inside/outside WR with good size, rumored strong testing speed, and solid traits such as his YAC ability, Royals finds himself in my Day 2 Grades, coming in at a Late-3rd Round pick, which does make him the lowest rated WR we have evaluated thus far.
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Next Write-Up will have the Deeper Dives from today’s audio.
Next Audio will feature the 12/28 Bowl Players (Shedeur, Ward, Hunter, Restrepo, & Higgins)
Thanks,
C.J.
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