WEEK 6 / 7
I’m a bit behind this week, so the Risers may be a bit short and unedited this week. If you’re a fan of the Reddit promotional posts, they will be updated again. The content quality should be just as good, but the polish may be lacking.
On that note, maybe that makes it a good week to get context through Fantasy For Real. Obviously I would always encourage you to listen, but this is a good episode to take a shot on if you’re a “read only.”
Included on the show this week:
RB Pass Catching Notes
Rookie QB Performances
More TE Buys/Sells
A look at prospect eligibility for 2025 (who is out of remaining eligibility that may surprise?)
Detailed discussion of Risers.
WEEK 7 CFB Risers
Kaleb Johnson, RB, Iowa
Many risers at this point of the season are less about the current week, and more about how the player has done to date. Kaleb Johnson’s 188 total yards against Washington are certainly impressive, but even more impressive are his over 800 yards in the last 5 games. It is also worth noting that while Johnson is not incredibly involved in the passing game, he had a 20+% Target% this past weekend, and so while his 3/20+ is not very impressive on paper, it is a significant bit of a film to get for the bigger RB. If this can continue as a trend throughout the season, Johnson could showcase some valuable versatility. Considering his size and versatility, Johnson is the best candidate by far to disrupt my top 4 RBs.
Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
This past weekend, Warren had a game that is not only rare for a TE, but rare for a football player, with 20 Targets and 17 Receptions among other accolades. Warren was in my top 4 TEs on my initial list, but in many ways he came across as the “other” TE among the 3 Juniors ready to be early declares. This game made it clear why Warren belongs in those top tier(s) of TEs. He is a versatile playmaker who showcased on Saturday both Contested and Missed Tackles Forced abilities. Warren cannot be an early declare as a fifth year player, but outside of this, Warren is a superb prospect.
Other RB/TE Risers
Jordan James, RB, Oregon ; DJ Giddens, RB, Kansas State ; Desmond Reid, RB, Pittsburgh via Western Carolina
Over the past two games, both Jordan James and DJ Giddens have been electric. James’ size is a question that has become apparent now that he is not standing next to Bucky Irving, but he has adequate size and is a tenacious runner. Giddens on the other hand has excellent size, and also shows traits worth buying into, like his ability to run through tacklers and navigate in traffic. Giddens has a high drop% worth keeping an eye on, but he clearly showcases the upside of a larger back who has explosive play ability and pass catching upside– a rare trio that could lead to a near-extinct bellcow, or at least that kind of upside appeal for fantasy. Desmond Reid is most likely either a James White or Tarik Cohen-type player (or whatever other equivalent you can make) but he continues to impress as a member of Pitt.
Jake Brinningstool, TE, Clemson ; Gunnar Helm, TE, Texas
WR Risers
Tre Harris, Ole Miss & Dane Key, Kentucky
There are still concerns in the profile of Tre Harris that stem from his strong Hitch + Screen route tree, but it is important to note that in SEC play, Jaxson Dart’s numbers have deteriorated. Tre Harris has remained a consistent producer in spite of his QB’s fall from grace. For Dane Key, the surface numbers look impressive enough for a true junior, but the proportional numbers in particular are phenomenal. Key has over 40% of his team’s Receptions and Yards the past 3 weeks while having 100% of his team’s TDs. Key is still young and it is still early, but it is hard to ignore true juniors putting up proportional numbers like this.
QB Riser
Drew Allar, Penn State
I will be diving into the 2025 QBs in more detail on the Thursday episode, but it is important to admit both in this week’s Fantasy For Real as well as in writing that I probably did go a bit too far last week in my Drew Allar criticism. My general observation that he is more suited for the 2026 class remains true, and I still have concerns about his change of direction and throw-on-the-run abilities, but Allar proved a lot in this past game against USC. Yes, he doubled his career total in Interceptions, but Allar still had many high level plays that displayed what he could be. When it comes to this article and the show, I’ll be covering the 2025 QBs in more detail in the next episode, but while Allar’s game against USC still had some questions, it displayed some upside from Allar that we’ve rarely seen on full display.
Frustrating w/ Elite Potential
Evan Stewart, WR, Oregon via Texas A&M
The intrigue of Evan Stewart is reminiscent of that scene in the Godfather Part III: every time I thought I was out, they pull me back in. Stewart was a player who I finally took out of my first round SF mocks after struggling to defend his placement there, and then he absolutely destroyed Ohio State. What’s of particular interest with Stewart is his splits with close games. In games where the margin is at least 10 points, Stewart has 11 Receptions, 70 Yards, 1 TD, and 0.55 Yards/Route Run in 4 Games. When the margin is within 3, Stewart has 12 Receptions, 261 Yards, 2 TDs, and 4.66 Y/RR in only 2 Games. Maybe this is just a coincidence, and it is hard to justify the 40 Route games with only ~7-15 Yards, but NFL scouts often lean towards the highest upside performance, and so this single game against Ohio State may go a long way.
Big Names
Nicholas Singleton, RB, Penn State
While I am a huge fan of Singleton and his upside, it is becoming increasingly apparent to myself as well that Singleton still oddly lacks the ability to make a single individual miss in space. His overall Missed Tackles Forced numbers are fairly bad on the season, and this is causing Jeanty and Singleton to start to diverge in my own rankings as well. What keeps Singleton from any consideration of being a faller is that his pass catching profile continues to quietly and subtly build itself up. Singleton had 4 Receptions on 4 Targets this game, bringing his season total to 10 Receptions on 10 Targets. With his explosive play upside, if Singleton can become an adequate pass catcher, he has RB1 potential at the NFL level regardless of if some of the hang-ups mentioned above hold him back.
Notes
Jonah Coleman, RB, Washington via Arizona ; Ricky White, WR, UNLV ; Iowa St. WRs Jayden Higgens & Jaylin Noel
Coleman’s volume was not high enough to blow anyone away, but he continues to flash against tough opponents. Ricky White has insane numbers since the QB change (3 Gs, 26 Receptions, 391 Yards, 5 TDs, 5.14 Y/RR). Iowa St. needs to feature more in the schedule segment, primarily because of these two WRs. Higgens shows by far the most intriguing upside between his size and tackle breaking ability.
Fallers
Jaxson Dart, QB, Ole Miss
Anyone who listens to Fantasy For Real knows that I have been lukewarm about Dart’s impressive grading so far this year, even going so far as to call him a sell, but Dart is showing more and more clear signs of struggling now that the competition level has been raised. He has completed under 60% of his passes since SEC play began and has more turnover-worthy-plays than big-time-throws. He has a solid arm and is a mobile QB, so the upside even at the next level is there, but right now I see Dart as someone who won’t be drafted highly enough to start. And as this episode of FFR mentions, if my math is correct, Dart is out of remaining eligibility in College Football despite being only 21 Years Old.
Elic Ayomanor, WR, Stanford
Ayomanor is tricky because he does have one season already in 2023 with some very solid proportional production, but this season is trending towards being very disappointing. This may be getting too “deep” in some way, but I’ve always considered Ayomanor more likely than some players to return to school simply due to the fact that he has chosen to attend Stanford, and more than likely that tends to mean he cares to some extent about the “student” side of being a student athlete. If this season calls his draft stock into question, I could easily see him return to complete his BA at Stanford. In general, Ayomanor has caught only 10 of his 25 Targets over the last 3 games. These kinds of struggles are the things pushing him towards next year.
Kyle Monangai, RB, Rutgers
While I have never been the biggest individual supporter of Kyle Monangai, he has struggled recently to maintain the efficiency he showcased earlier in the season. Most importantly though, Monangai was a player who needed to develop a pass catching profile given his size and lack of explosive traits, but so far this season he averages only 1 Reception and roughly 5 Receiving Yards per game. Monangai might find a fit at the next level, but the traits are hard to rate above the 5th/6th Round Level, and players in the 5th/6th Round Level are hard to get too excited about before we know their landing spots and opportunities.
//
Once again, thanks for bearing with me. This is the first year I’ve done this Substack, and previously I’ve had more leeway with due dates. I’m a bit behind this week, but hopefully I’ve been able to target the main things I wanted to hit on this week’s risers. I’ll try to include a write-up for the 2025 QBs and 2027 WRs alongside the CFB Schedule this upcoming Saturday.
Thanks,
C.J.
(#55) Big Review & Reaction Show #6: RB/TE Risers, KW3's 100 Target Pace, Tucker/Tracy Breakouts, & more