WEEK 8
On the Audio Version Today:
Rapid Fire Notes for NFL Week 7
NFL RBs by Slot and Wide%
2026 v 2027 Classes
2025 QB Notes
2025 1-Round 12-Team 1QB Mock Draft
Further Notes on CFB Games
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Originally, the post today was going to be shorter, but I drafted a few things late on Wednesday, and because I want this Substack to have as much of my content as possible, I have included these drafts in this post.
Times are in Eastern. Players without years are eligible for the NFL Draft. Years are when players are first eligible.
Another fantastic slate of games this weekend with another potential Game of the Year. We’re starting to get into the flow of Conference play a bit more, and getting a bit more used to some of the bizarre Big Ten and SEC match-ups. We’re also now closer to halfway done with the CFB Regular Season. That said, there’s still a lot left to be decided.
FRIDAY
Oregon @ Purdue on FOX at 8:00 PM
Key Players: Jordan James, RB, Oregon ; Evan Stewart, WR, Oregon ; Tez Johnson, WR, Oregon
Not a lot from the Friday slate this weekend, but I did want to bring up this game because despite the spread and Purdue’s lack of names, this is actually a very tough “spot” for Oregon. They’re coming off a massive emotional 1-point win, and now have to travel across the country on a short week to play a school in Indiana. In particular, this is an opportunity for Evan Stewart to earn some brownie points for consistency, which he has failed to do throughout the majority of his career.
Oklahoma St. @ BYU on ESPN at 10:15 PM
Key Players: Ollie Gordon II, RB, Oklahoma St.
Similar to the other Friday night game, this is a college football staple: Provo at Night. BYU is a tough road environment, and given what we’ve seen from Oklahoma State this year, that probably means Ollie Gordon is inefficient once more, but these are the games that are still on his schedule that will allow for a rebuilding of stock, and Gordon is running out of those in the 2024 season.
SATURDAY
BIG GAMES
GAME OF THE WEEK: Georgia @ Texas on ABC at 7:30 PM
Key Players: Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas ; Arch Manning, QB, Texas (2026) ; Isaiah Bond, WR, Texas via Alabama ; Ryan Wingo, WR, Texas (2027) ; Gunnar Helm, TE, Texas ; Carson Beck, QB, Georgia ; Trevor Etienne, RB, Georgia ; Branson Robinson, RB, Georgia ; Nate Frazier, RB, Georgia (2027)
Our third “Game of the Year” candidate this season, and our second in the last two weeks, we go from the new Big Ten to the new SEC. The headliner for this game is the match-up between two QBs commonly mocked in the 1st Round, Carson Beck and Quinn Ewers. While Beck’s mistakes have been far more broadcast this year, I believe he is currently playing better and more translatable football for the next level, but this is the chance for both QBs to prove their case. When it comes to the other positions, Texas has a clear edge in NFL WR talent, while Georgia has that edge at RB. If Isaiah Bond is healthy, he is a speedster WR who is a candidate to go in the 1st Round of the NFL Draft. Both of these teams also have an elite potential freshman in Ryan Wingo and Nate Frazier. Wingo in particular has flashed massive big-play potential, while Frazier has gotten worked into this backfield throughout the year.
Alabama @ Tennessee on ABC at 3:30 PM
Key Players: Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama ; Justice Haynes, RB, Alabama (2026) ; Ryan Williams, WR, Alabama (2027) ; Nico Iamaleava, QB, Tennessee (2026) ; Dylan Sampson, RB, Tennessee
This game could have been in that same top caliber, but for our purposes, the Tennessee offense in particular has been struggling this year. Nico Iamaleava has a lot of hype and potential to be a #1 Overall pick in 2026, but his crown may have arrived a bit prematurely. Iamaleava has struggled throughout the 2024 season, but could turn things around against a questionable Alabama defense. The heartbeat of the Tennessee offense so far has been Dylan Sampson, the RB who shows excellent burst and feel. On the opposite side of the field, Jalen Milroe looks to rebound after his worst game against a major conference opponent by far this season. So far this year, Milroe has roughly the same amount of rushing yards, but they have come almost exclusively on designed carries. Perhaps accessing scrambling again can help unlock Jalen Milroe. The most spectacular player on both sides of the ball may be the 17-year-old, Ryan Williams, one of the most dynamic players regardless of age in College Football.
Colorado @ Arizona on FOX at 4:00 PM
Key Players: Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado ; Travis Hunter, CB/WR, Colorado ; Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
This game has less College Football fanfare, and fewer prospects to discuss, but the three prospects listed above could all be NFL 1st Round Picks. Not only that, but this is the first time this year where we have two highlighted players that may very well match-up against each other on the field– Travis Hunter may very well draw an assignment against Tetairoa McMillan. These are the two highest graded prospects at their positions, and so while the shoulder injury for Hunter might have cast a shadow over this match-up, it does now seem like we are going to get McMillan v. Hunter. Shedeur Sanders may be the best QB in this draft class, but he feels like an afterthought to that show.
Kentucky @ Florida on SEC Network at 7:45 PM
Key Players: D.J. Lagway, QB, Florida (2027) ; Eugene Wilson III, WR, Florida (2026) ; Dane Key, WR, Kentucky
For better or worse, it is now D.J. Lagway time. With Graham Mertz injured for the season, the highest upside fantasy prospect in Devy Superflex makes his true starting debut against Kentucky. This is a tough defense, and the standard for Lagway should be playing well enough that someone wants to play him as the starter of a major football team next year, but anything above that will launch the hype around the 2027 Class and Lagway into the stratosphere. Aside from Lagway, Eugene Wilson III is back from a knee injury and is the most productive true sophomore WR in the top 200 prospects of the 2023 / 2026 class, but his role has been to date exclusively near the line of scrimmage. Dane Key is one of the better performing WRs over the last three weeks, and his proportional numbers for his team are even better. Key has over 40% of his teams’ receptions and receiving yards these past 3 weeks as well as 100% of their receiving TDs.
TIER 2 GAMES
Miami (FL) @ Louisville on ABC at Noon
Key Players: Cam Ward, QB, Miami (FL) via Washington St. ; Damien Martinez, RB, Miami (FL) via Oregon St. ; Xavier Restrepo, WR, Miami (FL) ; Isaiah Horton, WR, Miami (FL) ; Elijah Arroyo, TE, Miami (FL) ; Ja’Corey Brooks, WR, Louisville via Alabama
This game is all about Cam Ward, who does not have that many true tests on his schedule. This is not the toughest match-up, but it is one of the better games Miami will play before potentially the ACC Championship and CFB Playoff. Miami has barely won in their last two match-ups, and so a dominant performance would help to restore some worries there.
Auburn @ Missouri on ESPN at Noon
Key Players: Luther Burden III, WR, Missouri ; Cam Coleman, WR, Auburn (2027) ; Perry Thompson, WR, Auburn (2027) ; Malcolm Simmons, WR, Auburn (2027) ; Keandre Lambert-Smith, WR, Auburn via Penn St.
Luther Burden has not yet been consistent in his overall production, but much of his proportional production and efficiency metrics still align with a higher-end fantasy prospect. Burden is an explosive playmaker with high-end upside. For Auburn, Simmons gets the most work from the slot, but Cam Coleman is the freakish outside player with ample upside.
USC @ Maryland on FS1 at 4:00 PM
Key Players: Zachariah Branch, WR, USC (2026) ; Duce Robinson, WR, USC (2026) ; Makai Lemon, WR, USC (2026) ; Ja’Kobi Lane, WR, USC (2026) ; Quentin Joyner, RB, USC (2026) ; Miller Moss, QB, USC ; Tai Felton, WR, Maryland
If there is someone to emerge from the 2026 Class at WR, it makes sense to bet on USC just because you get 3 or 4 candidates. Branch and Robinson have the highest physical upside, but neither one has produced enough to get us excited. Lemon was an afterthought most of this season, but after a 70 yard performance last week, perhaps he can be the one to step up above the rest.
LSU @ Arkansas on ESPN at 7:00 PM
Key Players: Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU ; Caden Durham, RB, LSU (2027) ; Kyren Lacy, WR, LSU ; Mason Taylor, TE, LSU ; Ja’Quinden Jackson, RB, Arkansas via Utah ; Taylen Green, QB, Arkansas via Boise St.
Riding high off an OT win and having to go on the road, LSU is in a tough spot this week, but unlike the Oregon Ducks mentioned above, Arkansas is a team that can give LSU a true test. Garrett Nussmeier has flashed the ability to be a first round NFL Draft pick, but his consistency is still lacking. If he can start to weed out the big negatives in his game, Nussmeier can rapidly rise Draft Boards. Freshman RB Caden Durham has been one of the most pleasantly surprising Devy RB prospects this season.
RAPID FIRE GAMES
Nebraska @ Indiana on FOX at Noon
Key Players: Dylan Raiola, QB, Nebraska ; Kurtis Rourke, QB, Indiana via Ohio
Michigan @ Illinois on CBS at 3:30 PM
Key Players: Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan ; Kalel Mullings, RB, Michigan ; Donovan Edwards, RB, Michigan ; Pat Bryant, WR Illinois
UCF @ Iowa St. on FS1 at 7:30 PM
Key Players: Jayden Higgins, WR, Iowa St. ; Jaylin Noel, WR, Iowa St. ; R.J. Harvey, RB, UCF
Kansas St. @ West Virginia on FOX at 7:30 PM
Key Players: Avery Johnson, QB, Kansas St. (2026) ; DJ Giddens, RB, Kansas St. ; Dylan Edwards, RB, Kansas St. via Colorado (2026) ; Jahiem White, RB, West Virginia (2026)
Iowa @ Michigan St. on NBC at 7:30 PM
Key Players: Kaleb Johnson, RB, Iowa ; Luke Lachey, TE, Iowa ; Aidan Chiles, QB, Michigan St. via Oregon St. (2026) ; Nick Marsh, WR, Michigan St. (2027)
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CHRONOLOGICAL GAME LIST
Miami (FL) @ Louisville on ABC at Noon
Auburn @ Missouri on ESPN at Noon
Nebraska @ Indiana on FOX at Noon
Alabama @ Tennessee on ABC at 3:30 PM
Michigan @ Illinois on CBS at 3:30 PM
Colorado @ Arizona on FOX at 4:00 PM
USC @ Maryland on FS1 at 4:00 PM
LSU @ Arkansas on ESPN at 7:00 PM
Georgia @ Texas on ABC at 7:30 PM
UCF @ Iowa St. on FS1 at 7:30 PM
Kansas St. @ West Virginia on FOX at 7:30 PM
Iowa @ Michigan St. on NBC at 7:30 PM
Kentucky @ Florida on SEC Network at 7:45 PM
//
We’re getting closer and closer to a 2-Round Mock Draft, but we’re not quite there yet. Jalen Milroe would have been my top QB again, but I wasn’t sure exactly where to put him, and there were some fringe RB/WRs I wanted to work into the back end of the mock, so I thought what better way to do it than to make this week’s Mock Draft a 1QB Mock.
Gut Reaction 1QB Mock Draft
Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
Luther Burden III*, WR, Missouri
Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise St.
Nicholas Singleton, RB, Penn St.
Quinshon Judkins, RB, Ohio St. via Ole Miss
Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio St.
TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio St.
Kaleb Johnson, RB, Iowa
Isaiah Bond, WR, Texas via Alabama
Evan Stewart, WR, Oregon via Texas A&M
Jordan James, RB, Oregon
Antonio Williams, WR, Clemson
*Travis Hunter playing WR full-time would be a top 3-4 pick.
Mock Notes:
Ashton Jeanty not being the #1 is controversial. If current Mock Drafts are accurate though, he will easily be my 1.01. I still have hang-ups about how Jeanty will be perceived when we get into the more scrutiny-based portions of the process. He is very atypical for a high-end RB prospect; he is undersized, from a small school, and I question his ability to test athletically at the highest level. This might not hold him back from being a great fantasy RB, but until we get closer to the process, it gives me pause about his presumptive Draft Capital still. What you get with Burden and McMillan is consistency. I have been ranking this class for almost a year now in publicly available means. Burden and McMillan have basically been the top prospects throughout that entire window, and they are still commonly mocked within the top 10 or 20 picks in the NFL Draft.
While this is a 1QB Mock, Kaleb Johnson is ranked highly enough that he would have been in this mock draft even if it were Superflex. This is a recent change, and part of the benefit of this exercise is that we will get to see how it persists. Right now, this makes Johnson the biggest riser of the 1QB class, and his production, film, and well-rounded traits justify that ranking. All that said, I still do have Jordan James very close to Kaleb Johnson. The Oregon RB is also not ideally sized, but he is a tenacious runner and one of the toughest RBs to tackle regardless of size in College Football. Trevor Etienne, Omarion Hampton, and D.J. Giddens are among the RBs who just missed making this first round.
At WR, Evan Stewart is a near-impossible evaluation. My gut instinct is that scouts will be enamored enough by performances like the one he put up this past weekend against Ohio State to draft him at the very least in the top 50, but there are still massive consistency questions right now for a position that often relies on that consistency for the highest-end players. I moved him out of my SF Mock for the first time last week, but he is one more good game with an absent performance against Georgia from Bond away from being a clear 1st Round Pick once more. On the opposite side of that idea, if Bond has a great game against Georgia, it will put him on the map in a way that he has not been yet. Bond has been a popular 1st Round pick in the “everybody’s wide awake sleeper” kind of way, but a blow-up against Georgia would truly put him on the map. To date, Elic Ayomanor has the better production between the two and would be my highest honorable mention, but Antonio Williams is a player who I like each & every time I turn on the film. Plus, Ayomanor’s struggles as a Stanford student make me believe he could return for the 2025 Season with Stanford. Players like Tre Harris are close to this ranking, but in the early process, I will lean on the younger profiles that I see as having more ceiling in their upward trajectories.
TEs were considered for this mock, and I am a Devy Manager of Colston Loveland, but I do not have enough faith in this TE class right now to mock any individual TE in the 1st Round, and more than likely no TE profile will earn 1QB 1st Round grading on my lists.
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2026 Versus 2027
I did not intend for this to be a part of the Substack, but I am up late working on a draft about the 2026 / 2027 section today, and anything I can include for the Substack subscribers, I want to make sure to do so. So here are some thoughts I’ve been working on for the 2026 / 2027 Classes, for a social post:
There is likely not enough space here to make the argument I want to make about 2026 and 2027. This is not just a plug– if you want a more detailed version, listen to Fantasy for Real. I made this podcast in part to have these longer conversations, in particular the ones that go against conventional wisdom which can be so strong in Fantasy Football.
The future is murky. The future is unpredictable. But the future is unpredictable when we put Christian McCaffrey as the 1.01 for 2024 Redraft Leagues too, we just are more used to making that bet. The bet we’re going to be talking about today is not one that people are used to making because it is extraordinarily unconventional. However, it has become my strong conviction that this is the direction the market WILL eventually move, and so if the market WILL eventually move in this direction, I want to advise people to do it NOW before the market catches up.
Jeremiah Smith and Ryan Willilams may be household names to the degenerate contingency of this subreddit, myself included, but they are importantly NOT household names. The casual fan probably doesn’t even understand how rare it is to have two players who were in high school last year each individually putting up numbers that would threaten the greatest TRUE freshman seasons in the history of College Football. What’s even more important is that there’s probably a strong contingent who is loosely aware of Smith & Williams, but does not even realize that they will not be eligible until the 2027 Draft. And this is why I make this conviction most of all: this opinion will not be proven true in 2026 or 2027. If I am right, this will be proven true in May 2025, when people who are starting to pay attention to the 2026 class have this conversation:
“Well, I’ve heard about Smith and Williams. They seem awesome.”
“Actually, they’re not a part of this class. They’re not eligible until NEXT year.”
“Oh. Well who is available this year?”
“Um…”
“... sounds like I’d rather have Smith and Williams.”
As I started to mention above, Smith and Williams have the kind of clout that may cause a class to be rated highly anyway, but that is before we get to the contrast with the 2023 HS / 2026 NFL Class. Not only are Smith and Williams producing like two of the best freshmen we have ever seen, the current sophomores of the 2026 class are giving us some of the worst indicators a class has ever put up. In fact, a good number of VERY highly regarded 2023 / 2026 prospects are already getting out-produced by Freshman (2024 / 2027) on their own team. Johntay Cook II was the 3rd highest On3 consensus prospect in his WR class, and after 1.5 Years with Texas, he has been surpassed by freshman Ryan Wingo, who has played 5 Career Games. Carnell Tate and Brandon Inniss of Ohio State are clearly second fiddle to Jeremiah Smith, a player a year younger than them.
Last year, at this time, Tetairoa McMillan and Luther Burden III were prospects who each had over 1,000 Career Receiving Yards and were graded top 50 by the ON3 consensus in 2022. Among the 2023 / 2026 class, only 1 Top-200 Recruit has over 600 Receiving Yards, and none have broken through 800. The most productive receiver is Eugene Wilson III, who has never caught a pass of 20+ yards of depth, has an extremely low ADOT, and operates primarily as a gadget receiver. The next four most productive receivers in that top 200 are USC’s Zachariah Branch, USC’s Duce Robinson, Ohio State’s Carnell Tate, and Notre Dame’s Jaden Greathouse. These four receivers– four of the top five most productive in this top 200 of 27 WRs– all have fewer receiving yards than Jeremiah Smith and Ryan Williams through half a season. Technically, Branch and Smith both have 553 Career Receiving Yards, but Branch has played 17 Games, and Smith has played 6. In their second seasons, these four WRs are on pace respectively for 466, 344, 557, and 318 yards. These are awful pace stats and trends for the MOST productive WRs in the 2026 Class. And that is BEFORE we get into the gross volume of viable candidates in 2027 that do not exist yet for 2026.
At QB, Nico Iamaleava and Arch Manning may be able to hold up as a pair of top-end QBs, but starting with Iamaleava, his crowning may have been considerably premature. While he has incredible tools, Iamaleava has not produced or performed well this season as a starter for Tennessee. Iamaleava has played 5 Games against FBS opponents, and he has only 181 Passing Yards Per Game to show for it. His PFF Grades have been improving, but they are still a long way away from where we were hoping they would reside. When it comes to preventing negatives, Iamaleava has had quite a few issues. He has been credited with 6 Fumbles and 2 INTs this year. It may seem harsh to scrutinize Iamaleava so much, but our prototypical early declares the last few cycles were already elite by this stage. At this time in their sophomore season, Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Caleb Williams, and Drake Maye were all elite QBs. And for this discussion, the biggest comparison isn’t the past, it is the future. Dylan Raiola has had his own struggles particularly this last weekend, but Raiola is grading as well if not better than Iamaleava despite being a year younger and a year further away from the draft.
Additionally, while Arch Manning has not played much, he does appear to be the kind of profile that could help off-set the extremity here. However, particularly as the main contention here is that the hype will really start building in May 2025, the general sentiment that Arch will be a part of the 2027 class will already start to be baked into that value. I actually have questions about it myself because I believe the NFL will be clamoring for Arch after the 2025 season, but the market believes it enough that it will factor into the equation. If Arch officially becomes 2027, that will be another massive dynamic in the favor of that class.
And all of this is before we get to the truly nuclear player: D.J. Lagway has more Superflex upside than any individual player in College Football right now. Plus, with the injury to Graham Mertz, if Lagway starts playing well, the hype train is going to take off quickly. Now that is very unlikely against Kentucky, but again, calling Lagway the highest upside individual prospect in Superflex College Football is not hyperbole. Lagway was considered a top prospect by HS analysts, who saw him in the mold of an Anthony Richardson who could develop more as a passer with a more prototypical development towards the NFL game. That is tantalizing. That is something you pass up on a Manning for. That is D.J. Lagway.
RB is the trickiest major position because it is so traits based, but the biggest breakout from 2026 was supposed to be Cedric Baxter. It still could be, but he missed this entire season with injury. Meanwhile, we do have instant breakouts from the 2027 class like Caden Durham (LSU) and Nate Frazier (Georgia). These are players, particularly Durham, who have performed at such an absurd level that it would be fair to expect them to be at least Day 2 RBs. But RB is a position I won’t go too deep into because the analytics are less important, so these RB profiles really can be built much more quickly.
In summary, while I understand this is a massive smack in the face of conventional wisdom, I am not advocating for a general change. I am advocating for one specific recognition of the current market place. I am advocating for the understanding of where we will be in 7 months, and trying to pre-empt the market by getting there ahead of time. And based on my significant research into this topic, I believe there is a gap here. We are not talking about one historical situation. We are talking about two historical situations. We are talking about historically bad profiles and historically good profiles meeting at a crossroads.
If you want to laugh. If you want to mock. Do it. All I would say is do it publicly, because I’m doing this publicly, so if you want to tell me I’m wrong, do it publicly. And we’ll see who’s right in May-June.
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That’s all I have for this week. I should be back Tuesday morning with some more CFB Risers and potentially a few Fallers.
Thanks,
C.J.
(#56) Hype for 2027 Heats Up, NFL RB Slot+Wide%, NFL & CFB Preview & more