It is a goal of mine to not over-promise and under-deliver, however I am coming a bit close to that right now with the write-ups. I mentioned having all 8 this time, but I did not accomplish that. To be clear, overall I’m actually fairly happy with the rate that content is being produced as a one-man operation, but I shouldn’t make promises that don’t end up coming true. All that said, I do have the next set of 4 here. There should be between 4 and 9 write-ups on the next post. I’ll update some of the longer form lists for next week too.
The Audio Version today includes a brief CFB Playoff discussion, reiterates thoughts on the 2027 class, looks over the early 2025 Draft Order, and goes into Deeper Dive mode with Ashton Jeanty, Cam Skattebo, Jaxson Dart, Jalen Milroe, and Carson Beck.
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Is Omarion Hampton the Most Complete RB in the 2025 Class?
DEEPER DIVE #9:
Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina
Age: 22.05
Height: 6’ 0”
Weight: 220 lbs
While Omarion Hampton neither threatened the College Football postseason nor the record of Barry Sanders, Hampton followed up a stellar 2023 campaign with an even better 2024 season. More importantly to this background discussion, Hampton's path to success has been far different from Jeanty; Jeanty was largely unheralded, went to a minor conference, and still has size questions at the least. Hampton was a fairly consensus 4-Star RB Recruit, went to a major university, and has excellent sizes to be a 3-Down RB at the next level. And Hampton's advantages go beyond his size. While Jeanty does have one good year of Receiving Success, Hampton has been phenomenal in each of the past two seasons. Hampton is just a bit older for an early declare (Hampton is roughly 9-10 months older than Jeanty), but other than this small age difference, Hampton really does elevate beyond Jeanty when it comes to the physicals and many aspects of profiling. Between the combination of size and pass catching prowess, it may be fair to suggest that Hampton has a similar floor and is potentially a more "well-rounded" back in certain capacities compared to Ashton Jeanty.
For North Carolina, despite a massive downturn in team success after the loss of Drake Maye to the NFL, Omarion Hampton was still able to maintain as the focal point for the offense with similar and even improved efficiency, showcasing potentially a growing maturity in a more difficulty environment. Hampton had 5.9 YPA in both 2023 and 2024, with his Yards Per Reception increasing from 7.7 to 9.8 despite an increase in volume as well (2.2 Rec/G --> 3.2 Rec/G). In total, in his last 25 Games, Omarion Hampton has 534 Carries, 3,164 Yards, 30 Rushing TDs, alongside 67 Receptions, 595 Yards, and 3 Receiving TDs. Aside from the statistics, Hampton boasts potentially the best blend of Size, Speed, and Contact Balance in this class. While he is nowhere near as special in a trait like Contact Balance compared to Ashton Jeanty individually, he does an excellent job of keeping upright, using his feet to push piles, and generally being a bit of a tough tackle. That said, and this begins to get us into some slightly more negative areas, Hampton does not possesses the statistical rate of forcing missed tackles you would expect for a RB who showcases the traits and balance of Omarion Hampton. He is certainly better in this area than players like Ollie Gordon II, who at least by these Deeper Dives is considered a bit more overrated in that trait, but he does not score statistically anywhere near someone like Ashton Jeanty or anyone else near the top of the league.
In general, I have some concern compared to other RBs of Omarion Hampton's "feel" for the game, lacking a better word. I have included a video for this Deeper Dive, but feel is something that is easier to watch develop over a longer period of time. Put simply, Hampton seems to lack creativity as a runner in several facets. With his size and explosive ability, being able to stop or slow momentum and then break off in another direction is vital to bigger play ability. Kenneth Walker III is an excellent example of a RB who does this at the highest level. Hampton often will just simply run. It sounds odd to use that as a negative, but particularly in the open field and in the second level, you will see him running at angles that take him away and try to get the corner from defenders, but it is a largely one-speed forward-rushing with little open field pace. As we'll see in the video, found below,
Hampton has improved with patience behind the line of scrimmage, as we can see at 0:00 & 0:23. He's willing to hesitate at the line and pick his spots, which is at the least some indication of potential for long term awareness growth. That play at 0:23 also can show a particular ability of Hampton to spring into open space and daylight. And watch at 1:02 when stuck at the line how Hampton is able to maintain his balance. We can also see some of the smoothness as a pass catcher at plays like 1:46. And at 2:00, we can see that, while I do believe the angles Hampton creates fail to make the most out of his natural contact balance, he does have a raw ability to just run through defenders.
When it comes to grading Omarion Hampton, it is a bit tricky. My NFL board would still be slightly lower than maybe this post suggests because when it comes to the RB position, as I do have some concerns about specific areas of Hampton's translation. However, a lot of that also springs from the idea that you do not need a workhorse RB. If you were evaluating prospects on the idea that you wanted one to be "the guy," Hampton is one of the best candidates to come out in the last several years. He has the size, the explosion, the contact balance, and the pass catching. Taken in total, perhaps someone like Ashton Jeanty scores higher by just being more elite in one category, but Hampton is clearly the most well-rounded RB in this class, and that includes taking his size and translating in into an actual on-field workload. Hampton was not a player I was quite as high on as the consensus coming into the year, but at this point I do expect him to be closer to my RB2. I likely won't have him graded as highly as he's going to get drafted, potentially pushing him more towards a mid-late-2nd, but I do suspect at this point with his fantasy & consensus appeal combined with the raw "keep it simple stupid" of favoring RBs with size, explosive ability, and pass-catching upside, Omarion Hampton will be one of the top 5-7 prospects in the Fantasy Class barring an unforeseen draft slide, and is a dark horse candidate to get 1.01 considerations.
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Elic Ayomanor is a (potentially) underrated Statistical and Physical Gem (Deeper Dive #10)
DEEPER DIVE #10:
Elic Ayomanor, WR, Stanford
Age: Unlisted (3rd Year)
Height: 6’ 2”
Weight: 210 lbs
Coming out of HS, Ayomanor was a consensus 3-Star Prospect, a type of prospect that is right on the fringe of widely being considered talented, but likely not being offered by many top programs. Aside from this glimpse into the raw talent, Ayomanor does combine a track background with his evident size. Track conversions are not my specialty, but I believe Ayomanor's bests are around a 10.76 in the 100-M and a 21.66 in the 200-M. This is very circumstantial and subjective, but I do expect Ayomanor to interview very well. Ayomanor was one of the first players I personally heard giving interviews this pre-season, which indicates to me both a confidence and polish aside from the testing environment that likely suits him well as someone with that Size/Speed combination mentioned above. Importantly, Ayomanor was injured his freshman (torn ACL/MCL/meniscus) but has shown no signs of downturn from that injury. However, this was not a "simple" injury or at least as far as I understand it. This was a very significant knee injury in or before the 2022 season. Because of that timeline, all of his production since was in his freshman year post-injury, so we are not evaluating a player who has been significantly injured since his on-field performance.
While that on-field performance may not stick out on its own, given context and environment, Ayomanor's 125 Receptions, 1,844 Yards, and 12 TDs over the last two years is highly impressive. Proportionally, Ayomanor has had exactly 36.2% of his team's receiving yards in each of the past two seasons, which is one of the higher marks in this class, and while I do not calculate this myself, considering his TD% overall the last two years is 40%+ with 54.5% in his peak season of 2023, I'd assume Ayomanor will score very favorably in Dominator both for his career (when healthy) and peak season. Considering that 2023 was Ayomanor's sophomore season and his first after the injury, this also scores Ayomanor very highly in Early Breakout, and once again in context, his career 2.12 Y/RR is very solid. This is the main reason why I say in the OP that Elic Ayomanor is "underrated;" on the surface it does not appear like he would be an analytical darling, and depending on the numbers you use he may not be. But on my analytical principles that are based around concepts of dominator & early declare/production, Ayomanor could be argued as perhaps the 3rd highest ranking pure WR in this class, at least through this specific lens. It is fair to point out that in many of the numbers we have discussed for WRs throughout this process like Contested Catch Conversion%, Drop%, and Missed Tackles Forced, Ayomanor is more "fine" than anything better. The CCC% I would often blame on the QB in a situation like this, but having several concentration drops on film take some weight from that argument. Ayomanor is also a solid tackle breaker, but has been merely fine or solid the two years of his career.
For Ayomanor, we're using the game against Syracuse found below for this section.
It is always important to remember we're trying to point out traits here in this specific section not scout the player on this video, because obviously a lot of what we would want like how he snaps back to the ball on the first play is the most important. While separation will be the key concern with Ayomanor, at 0:09 on the second play, he does win his route even if the window is a bit limited. With size, winning consistently is more important in my eyes than being able to win by a large margin of yardage. Ayomanor also does a nice job of both winning enough vertically and then coming back to the back-shoulder at 1:35. We don't get a whole lot of it throughout Ayomanor's tape not just one game or one collection of plays, but at 1:00, we do see a bit of the potential that Ayomanor at least could have in this capacity. Most importantly though, Ayomanor's upside is largely determined by his ability to make just about any catch. The real highlight on this video is the circus catch at 0:25, and it is a phenomenal grab.
There is some part of me that hesitates to call Ayomanor "underrated" at the top, because I do see him as one of the most frequently graded WRs in the first two days and even two rounds of the NFL Draft, and so on a general level, I do not think he is being underrated. However, I also think not a lot fantasy people are discussing him, and while he does have that age old "does he separate well enough" argument going against him, the real way Ayomanor is underrated is in the way he scores well "traditionally" so to speak in several key analytics. Ayomanor, particularly within his offensive environment, was strong in concepts of early breakout, dominator, per-route efficiency, and is now an early declare all in spite of a detrimental knee issue his first year in college. Maybe that detriment comes back around, but right now I do not have any evidence or expertise to suggest it will or won't. Overall, Ayomanor's profile upside as an outside WR has me leaning towards a 2nd round grade, but the process will be very important for Ayomanor. If Ayomanor tests as he has claimed (near 4.4 flat) and is medically cleared, he may be more of an early 2nd and I could see teams having him even higher. If Ayomanor fails to live up to those expectations, the blemishes may get more focus. Either way, he is a talented WR prospect with plenty of upside.
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Deeper Deeper Dives: Can Ricky White III (WR/UNLV) or Brashard Smith (RB/SMU) rise up the 2025 Draft?
DEEPER DIVE #11:
Ricky White III, WR, UNLV
Age: 23.07
Height: 6’ 1”
Weight: 190 lbs
Most WRs who end up coming from the Group of 5 Conferences were largely unheralded coming out of HS, but Ricky White at least had some level of pre-College profile. He was only a 3-Star on most services, but he was initially recruited to Michigan State and played his first two years in the Big Ten, or rather was in the Big Ten his first two years, as he did not see the field in 2021. White would eventually transfer down to UNLV. While this gave White an opportunity to break out, transferring down is a negative indicator we often want to avoid. Many players who transfer away -- particularly many of the successful ones -- transfer either up or horizontally. Take many of the most recent popular transfers like Bo Nix (Transfer Auburn->Oregon), Michael Penix Jr. (Transfer Indiana->Washington), Jameson Williams (Transfer Ohio State->Alabama), and Kenneth Walker III (Transfer Wake->Michigan State). While none of these players found significant enough success in their first location to transition to the NFL, even the players like Jameson and Walker who had barely played CFB were highly regarded enough that they did not need to transfer down. Some of this is likely due to the fact that coaches talk. White was not highly successful in his first year with UNLV (2022), but in the last two seasons, White has been one of the most productive WRs in CFB. Physically, White seems to have the dynamic explosiveness to transfer to the next level, but he is naturally wirey-framed. It seems unlikely that he will ever add substantial weight or have much heft as a WR. Still, he is someone with intriguing physical tools.
Analytically, the lack of early breakout, transfer down, and being tied for the oldest player I've evaluated in this class so far (or plan to evaluate so far) are all major factors that go against Ricky White. What comes in his favor is the peak season. Over the last two years, White has played in 27 Games with 167 Receptions, 2,524 Yards, and 18 TDs, and his proportional numbers are fantastic as well. White has caught around 45% of his team's receiving yards and 47% of his team's receiving TDs the last two years. These are peak proportional numbers that score far more highly than most of the class. It is coming against Mountain West competition, but when talking more about the proportions, it shows what it should: that Ricky White is standing out considerably compared to his peers. White may not be the biggest WR, but he does possess some ability to make tacklers miss in-space. White has been at least solid in Missed Tackles forced each of the past two years, but he was particularly good this past year with 22. That is a very encouraging number for a prospect.
For White, we will be looking briefly over this game against Fresno St.
There is no real direct comparison between Ricky White III and Jalen Royals other than the fact that they are both Group of 5 WRs, but as the only 2 G5 WRs I plan to evaluate, the biggest advantage White may have over Royals is his quickness and release at the line. We see at least a glimpse of this at 1:18, though sometimes broadcast film can be very tricky play-to-play with WRs. While this is a solid play overall, I do want to highlight the size and athleticism gap that exists between defensive backs in the P4 and in the G5 conferences. Perhaps this is a major error on my part and I'll discover something I didn't know about this player, but the CB at 1:50 who gets stuffed at 2:00 looks to my eyes to be someone without anywhere near the caliber of size or physicality to work perhaps even at the P4 level. At 0:24, we see White's relative athleticism including a hurdle, and so while he is wirey with some of his own physical limitations, he does stand out in this field. One possible negative for White is that my eyes see him as a significant body catcher. He does adjust well back to the football like at 2:30, but the ball definitely seems to be getting into the pads of Ricky White.
Overall, while there are exceptions to every rule (Zay Flowers), for the most part, WRs who are older, lack ideal physicality, and have played at lower levels of competition are perceived to have a hard-cap on their value ceiling. It would be almost impossible for me to grade White any better than a 3rd Round Pick. However, that is probably where my grade is going to end up at this point. While I do have some significant doubts about the translation, some elements of the physicality, and the general path White took to be successful, he does showcase enough traits to be a potential role player at the next level, with proportional statistics at the least that suggest there is upside beyond that.
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DEEPER DIVE #12:
Brashard Smith, RB, SMU
Age: 22.05
Height: 5’ 10”
Weight: 196 lbs
When one team finds success, particularly success at a low cost, others try to emulate it. That isn’t to say that Brashard Smith deserves to be discounted for this context, but I do wonder if part of the excitement around Smith is the fact that we’ve seen two converted WRs-turned-RBs after one year at the RB position come to the NFL and find some level of success. At this point, both Tracy and Guerendo have arguably displayed talents worthy of their very low draft cost and have already represented a draft day value. RB isn’t the most difficult position to find at the lower rounds comparatively, but it goes to show this is a position players– particularly those like Smith with a background in returning kicks– can have a good feel for and develop if they have the right natural traits. The one concern about Smith comparatively to Tracy/Guerendo from this biographic section is that Smith is comparatively undersized. He is only 5’10” and 196. While these are all listed numbers by different universities which can make it tricky, Tracy was listed at 6’1” 210 lbs, and Guerrendo 6’1” 225 lbs. Tracy in particular measured in below that figure, but it is fair to assume Smith's numbers are inflated as well. That said, Smith is a dynamic player and in particular scored better than Tracy or Guerrendo as a pass catcher while playing RB.
That last fact is one of the areas where Smith finds his strongest appeal. While Tracy in particular was identified as having WR skills because of his WR background, statistically during his first year playing major snaps at RB, he caught only 19 Passes for 132 Yards. Alongside his 235 Carries on the season (more than Tracy in 2023), Smith caught 39 Passes for 327 Yards and 4 TDs, a very encouraging line for a RB. This probably brings into mind the biggest contrast between these two or three backs: Tracy and Guerrendo had appeals that were more akin to super-high upside because of a potential 3-down nature. Smith does not feel like he has the same likelihood of having a 3-down nature, but potentially could be seen as a much higher floor back than the other two because of his pure 3rd down ability. In fact, without the benefit of hindsight, I may be persuaded to rank Smith more highly as a prospect in some capacities simply because his chances of success seem far more high. However, what would push back on that is that Tracy displayed not just better size reportedly, but a natural contact balance that is very rare for a RB. Tracy was one of the best RBs in CFB when it came to Missed Tackles Forced per Attempt. Brashard Smith scores fairly lowly in this category, and does not seem to run with the weight, anchor, or balance that Tracy does. That said, he does have at least some dynamic 3-down appeal simply as someone who handled the workload in his first year as a RB. As mentioned above, Smith had both 235 Carries and 39 Receptions, a total of 274 Touches, and was a highly effective RB overall.
There are a few plays throughout this video (like right away in the first play) where we can see that while Smith is dynamic and not particularly small, he does not possess that anchor or power we were discussing earlier. While this is an anecdotal argument to be sure, at 0:18 you see Smith try to spin multiple times. Spinning is a good indication that Smith sees his best way to avoid tacklers to be to avoid clean contact entirely as opposed to using momentum and balance, which Tracy was more akin to do. That said, we do see the upside traits like with Smith's speed to the outside at 0:29 and his instant burst into daylight at 0:54. We can also see some plays where Smith operates as a receiver at 1:11 and 2:04. Overall, it is also important to note that the missed tackles forced questions are things that crop up as a receiver as well. Smith does not have a ton of broken tackles in these situations.
While Smith showcases many of the same upside traits that made and make Tyrone Tracy such an intriguing RB, there is a crucial difference in size and play strength here. Tracy was a risky bet (albeit a low cost one) given his one year at the position, but he showcased a lot of signature traits in high end RBs. Smith showcases a smaller variety of these signature traits. He is fast, explosive, and quick, and he even showcases some level of balance, but he does not have the power, anchor, or balance that Tyrone Tracy does. Some of this is likely weight related, but I do not know that the entire gap is made up by just their differences in weight. On the opposite end, Smith's production as a RB catching passes could showcase him as being the higher floor prospect between the two, or at least one that seems on paper (without hindsight) to be more likely to be an NFL role player at minimum. Even considering this, the comparison to Tracy still stands: if Smith hits, he could have more upside than a lot of other RBs particularly for fantasy because of his explosiveness and pass catching ability. Right now, I’m not sure I can grade him above the 4th/5th Round as a role playing RB, which will put him tied with the bottom of the RB grades alongside players like Ollie Gordon II and RJ Harvey.
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Thanks,
C.J.
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