EPISODE 76
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If you are looking for the standard batch of Deeper Dives, they can be found below the Brugler Mock Draft. Today’s Substack post includes Ashton Jeanty, Cam Skattebo, Jaxson Dart, and Jalen Milroe.
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Fantasy Mock based on Dane Brugler’s 1st 2025 Off-Season Mock Draft
Travis Hunter omitted
Fantasy Pick – Player – Position – NFL Team – NFL Mock Team Pick
1.01 Tetairoa McMillan, WR, New England Patriots ; 4th Overall
1.02 Ashton Jeanty, RB, Denver Broncos ; 20th Overall
1.03 Kaleb Johnson, RB, Minnesota Vikings ; 24th Overall
1.04 Cam Ward, QB, Tennessee Titans ; 1st Overall
1.05 TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Dallas Cowboys ; 44th Overall
1.06 Omarion Hampton, RB, Las Vegas Raiders ; 37th Overall
1.07 Shedeur Sanders, QB, Las Vegas Raiders ; 6th Overall
1.08 Luther Burden III, WR, Dallas Cowboys ; 12th Overall
1.09 Emeka Egbuka, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers ; 21st Overall
1.10 Matthew Golden, WR, New Orleans Saints ; 40th Overall
1.11 Colston Loveland, TE, Los Angeles Chargers ; 22nd Overall
1.12 Tyler Warren, TE, Indianapolis Colts ; 14th Overall
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2.01 Jalen Milroe, QB, New York Giants ; 34th Overall
2.02 Elic Ayomanor, WR, Washington Commanders ; 60th Overall
2.03 Tre Harris, WR, Houston Texans ; 58th Overall
2.04 Jayden Higgins, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ; 63rd Overall
2.05 Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Miami Dolphins ; 48th Overall
2.06 Mason Taylor, TE, Denver Broncos ; 51st Overall
Mock Draft Key Points:
Tetairoa McMillan going top 5 to pair with a young, talented, rookie QB would be very intriguing, and would likely elevate McMillan to 1.01, particularly if it coincides with…
As the Jeanty write-up mentions, the biggest concern for Jeanty being a “haul for 1.01” player might be the rest of the class catching up to him just a bit. Jeanty would be at least in his own sub-tier on this list, but it is much harder to see players at the 1.02 trading a haul for the 1.01 when Kaleb Johnson with 1st Round Capital to the Minnesota Vikings is on this theoretical table.
Cam Ward will likely be drafted in the top 3 in most fantasy (SF) drafts if he does get selected with the 1st overall pick. There is too much QB scarcity in the market. Likewise, even with building doubts in the market, Sanders probably goes higher than 1.07 if he is selected 6th overall. When it comes to rankings that are more based on expected value, these highly drafted RBs with good profiles to fairly open rooms are going to score very highly in both floor and ceiling. In that case, the risk profiles of these QBs drive them down a bit compared to the safer RBs, even in SF leagues, as these RBs are a very high caliber of overall prospect and theoretical post-draft grade.
While it does seem unlikely at this point that so many RBs would go highly and to such good landing spots, last year the main arguments for “These mocks are clickbait designed to woo fantasy managers” revolved around the idea that there was no way so many QB/WRs would go early in the draft. However, in the top 13 picks in 2024, we had 10 Fantasy Players with 6 QBs, 3 WRs, and 1 TE. Point being, just because a mock is favorable does not mean that it is clickbait b/s.
Many discussion points with Jonathon Brooks have aged poorly, but the dynasty theory point I still feel confident in is the idea that while we are likely to have a RB1 far more valuable than Jonathon Brooks, and several RBs could be ranked more highly than Jonathon Brooks, when it comes to those end of the 1st picks, all RBs that are clearly profiled to be considered better than Jonathon Brooks are going to be drafted far more highly than the 1.09-1.12 in ADP. In this scenario where the RB3/4 are early 2nd round picks with clear backfields and fairly high priors in the market, perhaps the top 4 RBs do not go in the top 6 picks, but it won’t be too far off of that.
From just listening to the market, maybe it is some early apprehension about the QB/WRs, but it seems that Tyler Warren in particular is ranked more highly than I would normally rank a TE for non-TEP fantasy. All four TEs here at least somewhat reflect my philosophy with the position. I would rather take similarly graded WRs still in non-TEP leagues.
A few of these inner-position battles like Henderson/Hampton, Burden/Egbuka, Loveland/Warren, and Ayomanor/Harris/Higgins are quite close.
If Jalen Milroe goes early 2nd, he is the ultimate wild card that will likely get pushed up into most 1st Rounds.
DEEPER DIVES
DEEPER DIVE #18:
Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise St.
Age: 21.09
Height: 5’ 9”
Weight: 215 lbs
The most common 1.01 by far in early mock drafts, Ashton Jeanty seems to be a likely 1st Round NFL Draft pick, and the type of player that will only be available at the very top of this 2025 NFL Draft Class. While Jeanty was not the highest graded prospect in his draft class, he was given a 4-Star grade by both 24/7 Sports and On3. Jeanty has been productive in all three of his collegiate seasons, with his most recent season notably challenging Barry Sanders’ record for most rushing yards in a season. Jeanty’s 2024 season was highly impressive, though I do wonder if there should be at least some conversation about his 2024 workload heading into 2025. Jeanty had far more touches in his final season (397) than either Bijan Robinson (277) or Jahmyr Gibbs (195), and even Jonathan Taylor had fewer touches in his final season (346). Taylor did have 268 carries as a rookie, though it is notable that Ashton Jeanty is well built, but he is certainly not a large running back. He is likely closer to 5’ 8” than 5’ 9”, and only two RBs (Clyde Edwards-Helaire & D’Andre Swift) have been as short as Jeanty and selected in the first two rounds in the past five years. His size is by no means a concern, but I would not say it is quite as ideal as many other players in this class or particularly someone like Jonathan Taylor. In particular, the translation of Bucky Irving’s Missed-Tackle-Forced (MTF) ability to the NFL level despite even worse size than Ashton Jeanty is encouraging for any doubts we may have.
While Jeanty’s overall numbers are impressive, big numbers at the Group of 5 level happen all the time, even if not to this extent. The real impressive statistic for Jeanty is that MTF number mentioned above. Jeanty forced nearly 300 MTF in his career in just under 750 Carries, a ratio that leads this class and does so at a very high volume. Those MTF helped Jeanty to compile his 374 Carries, 2,601 Rushing Yards, and 29 Rushing TDs in 2024. Jeanty’s receiving work took a dive in 2024, but that can at least partially be attributed to wear & tear involved with the team wanting to at least threaten the record of Barry Sanders. In 2023, Jeanty had 43 Receptions, 569 Yards, and 5 Receiving TDs. While this came against the Group of 5 Conferences, this was certainly enough to profile Jeanty as someone who can take a high workload as a 3-Down back at the NFL level. That said, there have been some questions made as to how strong the receiving profile or traits in particular for Ashton Jeanty truly are. Jeanty’s targets are generally low ADOT, so it is worth asking the question at the very least, particularly if we’re talking about the difference between good and great in this category.
To showcase some of Jeanty’s traits, I’ll be utilizing this video from the Oregon game:
Jeanty’s ability to break tackles may be his biggest calling card, but it does also become apparent quickly when watching Jeanty that he is very quick to diagnose and react to what is in front of him. There are signs of this all throughout the video, but specifically can be seen at places like 0:00, 0:12, 1:45, 4:17, etc. Throughout these plays, Jeanty also showcases his explosive ability and is consistently difficult to tackle. One particular explosive breakthrough occurs at 9:30. While most of this film is overwhelmingly positive, I did want to highlight some potential indicators of what was discussed in the beginning of the piece with Jeanty’s size. In particular, while size, power, and contact balance are all connected, they are certainly perfectly predictive of one another. Jeanty may have phenomenal contact balance, but there is a natural limit to how much pure strength and power a RB can have at a slightly smaller size. There are at least some signs of this at 3:52 and 6:00. It is also in many ways a successful play of pass protection, but the way Jeanty is absolutely trucked at the 7:45 mark can also help to highlight that, while he is well sized to be a future fantasy RB, Jeanty is still simply not the ideal size for the position, and does lack some of the physical capabilities of a back that would have a bit more size and heft.
Anyone who follows my work closely knows that I have been a bit slow to adopt Ashton Jeanty as my 1.01, at least compared to the consensus top WRs in this class like Tetairoa McMillan and Luther Burden. However, I have also been consistent that Jeanty would likely rise up the rankings if we got closer and closer to the Draft and it seemed more and more likely that falling in the draft was not a major concern. At this stage, the biggest risk for Ashton Jeanty’s value on a Big Board may simply be other RBs rising up to take just a bit of the thunder. It is only an early mock draft, but if the NFL Draft represented Dane Brugler’s Mock Draft with top 50 picks spent on Jeanty, K Johnson, O Hampton, and T Henderson, that could at least comparatively reduce the excitement in the market for Ashton Jeanty. When it comes to my own grades, I have never ranked Jeanty’s athleticism in the same tier as Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs, and certainly not in the same tier as Saquon Barkley. On my board, Jeanty is more of a prospect who ranks in line with the 1.01/1.02 of the 2022 class, Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker III. Similarly, my NFL Draft grade for Jeanty is closer to the Late 1st / Early 2nd, but at the RB position, this is generally speaking the highest grade I give out. In the past four cycles, only Bijan Robinson (and not even Jahmyr Gibbs) has received a higher grade Pre-Draft at this position, and Jeanty is a top candidate for the 2025 1.01.
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DEEPER DIVE #19:
Cam Skattebo, RB, Arizona St.
Age: 23.07
Height: 5’ 11”
Weight: 215 lbs
Next to Matthew Golden & TreVeyon Henderson, the biggest riser of the CFB Playoffs is likely Cam Skattebo, who had an all-time performance rushing, receiving, and even passing against Texas in a narrow loss. While this was his first time getting to play in front of such a massive audience, Skattebo has been quietly building his profile since going to lower division Sacramento State in 2021. Skattebo spent two years at Sac. St. before appealing to Arizona State enough to become a transfer, who would then become a feature part of the Sun Devils offense between 2023 and 2024. Even as a transfer, Skattebo did not get particularly high grades from the transfer portal, and so the combine and buzz around the NFL Draft will be crucial in assessing Skattebo’s athleticism. Skattebo is also among the oldest players in this draft class. While we have certainly had older prospects recently, as we get further and further away from COVID-19, until there is a sweeping eligibility rule change in College Football, 23 ½ Years Old is about as old as we see prospects leaving the NFL. Skattebo is a talented, physical runner with good size to compensate for his physicality, but I question if he has some of the most important traits I look for in determining the difference between Day 2 and Day 3 grades.
Cam Skattebo joined Arizona State in 2023, but it was not until this year that he truly took off statistically. In 2024, Skattebo had 293 Carries, 1,711 Rushing Yards, and 21 Rushing TDs to go along with 45 Receptions, 605 Receiving Yards, and 3 Receiving TDs. Skattebo may not have threatened any records of CFB royalty, but it could at least be argued that from a 3-Down perspective, Skattebo had a more impressive statistical season than Ashton Jeanty. And speaking of Jeanty, Skattebo is the only RB in this class who, at least according to PFF, is within Ashton Jeanty’s league when it comes to forcing missed tackles or MTF. Since joining ASU, Skattebo has broken just over 150 Missed Tackles on just over 450 Carries, which is a far better ratio than the .225-.275 where most of this class resides. While there are some reasons to doubt Cam Skattebo, and at least a couple have been mentioned or hinted at in the first section in particular, the big selling point particularly for fantasy with Cam Skattebo is that he is going to check three very important checkboxes in a major way: Size, Contact Balance, & Pass Catching Ability.
There is actually a “Sky Cam” video of Cam Skattebo on YouTube, which is an alternative viewing feature from ESPN, and so we are going to use the SkyCam from the Peach Bowl against Texas for this Deeper Dive.
Despite this nice angle, Skattebo will be a difficult player to describe through this section of the write-up. When it comes to the RB position, quite often it is not about a player performing “bad” or failing to execute consistently or successfully, but rather the raw perceived physical upside. The greatest strength for Skattebo can be seen throughout the video with his ability to run through tacklers. In particular, the play at 2:15 is an example of a single broken tackle downfield that can spring an even more explosive play. However, right away from the very first play of the video (0:00), it is at least my opinion that Skattebo does not quite have the top end explosive ability and first step quickness that is scored so highly at this position. This may seem like a high standard, but it is one that all of the RBs ranked above Skattebo, at least by my eye, share. So for the most part, this is a case both in this video and beyond in other films and tapes of Skattebo that you may have to judge for yourself both what you feel about this trait, and how it also affects Skattebo at the next level. Finally, there is a pretty bad drop on this video at 2:55, but also at least one excellent downfield play for Skattebo at 3:15. While many of the limitations discussed throughout this segment do cause some concern, the pass catching still does highlight why Skattebo can be an effective fantasy back in particular at the next level.
Even on my board, Cam Skattebo is a rapid riser and intriguing player with ample fantasy upside. However, there are still concerns both from the profile and the film that make me hesitate in giving Skattebo a clear Day 2 grade. The path to his peak does not bother me too much with Skattebo, as sometimes players go unnoticed and take a while to build their reputation, but we do always at least have to acknowledge when one of our later breakout players is also one of the oldest players in the class. Aside from that, while many other traits are of extreme importance to the RB position, first step quickness and explosive ability are the ones that I rank the highest in ability to translate to the NFL level, and at this moment, I have concerns with Skattebo in this area. If Skattebo were drafted highly enough that it seemed likely a team would give him a fair role moving forward, he would likely be ranked higher than RBs like Jordan James and Damien Martinez (Deeper Dives #22 & #23) because of the pass catching profile. However, when it comes to my own NFL Draft grades, I lean towards players like that in the 3rd Round who I see as having a bit more dynamic and explosive ability. That puts Skattebo quite a bit lower on my rankings than many I’ve seen so far, and in NFL terms, he listed between the Late 3rd and Early 4th Rounds.
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DEEPER DIVE #20:
Jaxson Dart, QB, Ole Miss
Age: 22.04
Height: 6’ 2”
Weight: 225 lbs
With COVID-19 affecting eligibility rules, the “four-and-done” prospect has not existed since the 2019 season. However, despite being younger than most players who have remaining eligibility on this list, Jaxson Dart has played enough football in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 that he would not be allowed to return to CFB even if he had wanted to. This is important to point out simply because Dart did not have a choice that far older QBs have had in recent memory. Dart was never an elite QB prospect, but he was fairly highly graded coming out of HS, and spent his freshman year becoming the starter for USC. However, he was forced to transfer when USC brought in both Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams, but while this does mean that Dart was displaced, it was by a coach he had never played for and a QB already considered the #1 Overall pick in a future draft class. Dart then spent the next three years starting for Ole Miss, so while he is still fairly young and has not yet turned 22 Years Old, Dart does have a considerable number of games started under his belt. While there are a number of concerns with Dart that we may discuss throughout this piece, the greatest selling point for Dart is likely his mobility. He is not in the same caliber as Jalen Milroe, but Dart is also easily the second most mobile QB of the top prospects of this class, and Dart’s mobility should similarly be ranked in a tier above Cam Ward’s.
Over the course of the 2024 Season, Jaxson Dart has compiled enough spectacular play to show up at the top of most PFF statistics like Passing Grade and Big Time Throws. These numbers normally indicate a good deal of consistency, but with Dart it is more about how extreme his good games truly are. Since the beginning of the 2023 Season, Jaxson Dart has played 20 games against Power Conference opponents. In his 8 best games, including his 2 bowl games, Jaxson Dart completed 70.3% of his passes with 386 Passing Yards, 3 Passing TDs, and 0.25 INTs per Game. In his other 12 games, Jaxson Dart completed 59.3% of his passes with 206 Passing Yards, 0.75 Passing TDs, and 0.5 INTs per Game. While all QBs are obviously expected to have far worse numbers in their “bad games,” both the extreme nature of the difference as well as the frequency of the “bad” games (60% of overall games, 67% of non-Bowl games) gives some pause as to who the real Jaxson Dart truly is. Certainly, a good percentage of that variance is on the offense, but at best that just makes Jaxson Dart into a significant mystery box as a prospect, which I’ll discuss a bit more in the verdict. Dart has rushed for 699 / 7, 568 / 8, and 648 / 3 the last three seasons when removing his sack yardage. That equates to roughly 800 / 8 rushing per 17 Games over his last three years. Those numbers should not be expected at the next level, but at 225 lbs and with solid speed and lateral movement, Dart is someone with rushing upside that could translate into a fantasy floor at a level near or above Bo Nix.
I would prefer to select a video highlighting Dart specifically, but the Gator Bowl Highlights film gives us a good selection of Dart plays that also helps to highlight the upside that NFL teams will be chasing. Notably, this was his final collegiate performance.
For fantasy in particular, we get a chance to see some of the upside displayed with Jaxson Dart at the 4:30, 4:55, and 5:10 in a nice succession. Here, Dart showcases his mobility as well as some of his utility as a read-option QB. Some of the plays for Dart here are quite simple, but many of these simple plays do highlight his touch and placement, like at 2:20 and 7:35. While the combination of a solid arm, good build, and intriguing mobility covers most of Jaxson Dart’s appeal, there is a consistent notion of toughness that has started to come up alongside discussions about Dart’s potential rise in the 2025 Class. There are several plays under pressure that are fairly impressive for Dart on this video, such as at 0:44, 5:22, 6:45, and while falling out of bounds at 9:30. This was “just” a bowl game for Jaxson Dart, but as mentioned above, this is the final impression that Dart left on NFL teams, and overall, he made several excellent plays in this game.
Ultimately, given the nature of the Ole Miss offense surrounding him the past three seasons, Jaxson Dart is one of the biggest mystery box prospects of the 2025 Draft. Throughout most of the 2024 season, it did seem like Dart was trending towards being more of a mid-Day 2 pick, but he has started picking up steam recently as a name that could even be a dark horse for the 1st Round. Dart may not have the greatest arm, but he does at least showcase a variety of tools that may be appealing to a creative offensive coordinator. And while he is a Senior himself, Dart being significantly younger than plenty of recent experienced QBs does give the allure of greater upside. Dart will be at the Senior Bowl, and NFL.com and the Senior Bowl itself have been advertising him as a feature of this class. Given the state of the QB position around the NFL, perhaps Dart is the name who is going to fly up NFL Draft Boards during the pre-draft process. For my own board right now, I have Jaxson Dart listed as a 2nd Round Grade, which does put him in an intriguing category for Superflex Leagues should he go 2nd Round to a QB needy team.
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DEEPER DIVE #21:
Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama
Age: 22.09
Height: 6’ 2”
Weight: 225 lbs
A four-year player and two-year starter with Alabama, Jalen Milroe is the easiest player in the 2025 Class to make the upside argument for. In a class with mostly mediocre-to-slightly-above athletes at the QB position, Jalen Milroe is a dynamic rusher that as a full-time starter would immediately enter the conversation with Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels for the most dynamic rushers at the QB position in the NFL. Weighing in at 6’ 2”, 225 lbs, Milroe is also more thickly built for the NFL level at least compared to Daniels. However, in spite of this perceived high upside, it is important that some key distinctions are made between a prospect like Milroe and Anthony Richardson. It isn’t too common of an argument, but many do seem to suggest that Milroe could have a Richardson-esque rise through the draft process, and that is something I personally do not expect. Richardson exited college after his first year starting with minimal success, likely because he correctly assumed his draft stock based on his physical talent. Richardson was a very young prospect and still ranks as one of the youngest overall players on my age list. On the other hand, Jalen Milroe returned for his senior season, and is now older than the average Day 2 Fantasy Prospect. No doubt, Milroe could rise particularly into the first round still, but the comparisons to Anthony Richardson and his meteoric rise are probably not fair or accurate to what we are about to see with Jalen Milroe.
The biggest selling point for Milroe is his legs, and in his 26 Games for Alabama, Milroe rushed for 1,685 Yards and 32 Rushing TDs when we remove the sack yardage. The 32 Rushing TDs in particular showcase some of the Red Zone upside involved with Jalen Milroe. While most of his 2023 yardage came on scrambles, Milroe was utilized far more often as a designed rusher within the DeBoer system. This helps to highlight the many different schematic ways in which Milroe can be deployed. Aside from his legs, Milroe does have a very high-upside arm, and generating higher-difficulty throws has never been Milroe’s particular issue. That said, his Big Time Throw numbers were far better in 2023 than in 2024. The issue for Milroe comes more from consistency and processing. The biggest reason to believe Milroe can have long term success is likely the improvements he saw in Pressure-to-Sack% and Time-To-Throw. Milroe was not particularly effective in 2024, and was arguably better overall the year prior, but dropping from a 31.9% Pressure-To-Sack% to an 18.9% while lowering Time-To-Throw from 3.44 to 2.87 are both very encouraging signs for Jalen Milroe. The real issue is if he can take that improvement and actually harness it as a developing QB.
During the season, after the Georgia game, my belief was that Milroe’s performance would buy him at least a half round in the NFL Draft. While he fell off considerably, this still might be the case– just with a lower starting point. This is the game I will highlight for this middle section today:
There are other QBs in this class, namely Jaxson Dart, with some rushing upside, but no one holds a candle to Jalen Milroe. Plays at 1:41 for an easy TD as well as 3:20 and 4:06 help to make this apparent. It is odd to compare someone to QBs as good as Lamar Jackson or Jayden Daniels, and so it needs to be as clear as possible that he is a far worse prospect and QB at this time, but Milroe’s physical capacity as a rusher can only be matched by those two QBs. Even Anthony Richardson is more of a short-yardage player than someone who can match the dynamic rushing upside of those three. It may seem odd, but while Milroe’s impressive arm helps sell the upside, it is more the simple plays like right away at 0:00 and effectively taking what the defense gives him that can highlight Milroe’s potential development and future. When you put it all together, plays like the one at 0:40 showcase what Milroe can do as a creator. It is worth noting that through the air, this video did highlight Ryan Williams considerably, and he certainly was a major factor for Milroe this season.
There are a few players where, with proper Draft Capital, their Big Board status could easily soar. Milroe has such spectacular upside, that if he were actually drafted in say the top 10 picks, he would still easily have an argument to be in the QB1 conversation. As of now, I’m not sure a team will be willing to make that happen. Still, wherever Milroe is drafted, he has to be seen as one of the highest-upside players we have in Superflex fantasy. Most likely, Milroe ends up a back-up who does not see the field or gets a sparring shot like Malik Willis. Even in that case though, there could be some genuine reasons for excitement and optimism with Jalen Milroe. As the most physically talented QB in this class, Milroe will be one to monitor closely throughout the NFL Combine process. On my board, I have Milroe listed as a late-2nd, early-3rd Round Pick due to the upside.
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Thanks,
C.J.
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