While there are still some Deeper Dives to do, I am now through the majority of players I expect to go in the first two rounds of Fantasy Drafts. With that in mind, it is time to introduce the second iteration of the Master Document. This Doc will have the full write-ups of every Deeper Dive released so far, as well as an updated Age list at the bottom.
I have also managed to catch up with my Deeper Dive writing this past weekend. Perhaps some editing still needs done, but there are roughly 11 new Deeper Dives for this post. Those new Deeper Dives can be found below as well.
MASTER DOCUMENT:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1izULptG8c14m9PciANJfcf3IYqBg3HmoA5T55IvgmGM/edit?usp=sharing
Remember to Support the Show if Possible. Substack payments open. Donation link for BuyMeaCoffee in the Master Document.
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DEEPER DIVE #27:
Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
Age: 5th Year
Height: 6’ 6”
Weight: 261 lbs
One of the biggest breakouts of the 2025 class, Tyler Warren seems to be a universal favorite who is very likely to be selected in the first 16 picks of the NFL Draft. Warren’s path to success is very atypical for a top prospect; a former HS Quarterback, Warren had almost no production his first three years of college, and then had simply solid production in year 4. But in his 5th season (2024), Tyler Warren was one of the most dynamic receiving threats in College Football. Warren is large with a hulking physique, and will likely have NFL appeal for his ability to line up in-line as well as operate as a YAC threat. There seems to be no clear confirmation on Warren’s age so far, but the most likely date I’ve seen posted would suggest that Tyler Warren is 23 Years, 3 Months as of September 1st, 2025.
When it comes to production, Tyler Warren is one of those players that starts out strong and just continues to look more and more impressive as you break it down further. On just the raw surface numbers, Warren has an extremely impressive 104 Receptions, 1,223 Yards, and 8 TDs. Penn State did not necessarily have poor volume, but it certainly was not extremely high, as the WR volume in particular was very low. This means that Warren did have an extremely impressive proportion of Penn State’s receiving stats with 36% of Receptions, 34% of Receiving Yards, and 28% of Receiving TDs. While all those numbers are impressive, they ignore what he has done as a rusher and even as a passer. Warren has also chipped in 26 Attempts, 218 Yards, and 4 TDs as a rusher as well as 3 for 6 for 35 Yards and a TD as a passer. As a receiver, Warren had a 2.77 Yards per Route Run, indicating excellent efficiency as well. Warren also scores very highly when it comes to the statistics that this series tracks for showcasing some of our key traits. Warren showcases both the statistical broken tackle ability (19 Missed Tackles Forced / MTF) and Contested Catch Ability (13 of 21 on Contested Opportunities) that we look for in top-tier prospects. Warren was also very reliable with a very small Drop%.
For the Tyler Warren deeper dive, we’ll take a look at his game against USC this season:
There are certainly numerous tools and traits from Tyler Warren to keep an eye on, but this highlight video also does a good job of showcasing that Warren very frequently did not get his production from running a developed route tree. At 0:00, 0:34, 0:48, 1:46, 2:20, and 3:35 at the very least we see numerous examples of where this production comes with Tyler Warren. And while the play at 0:24 is quite a bit different, and the catch is tremendous, Warren begins this play lined up at the center position. He snaps the ball to the back-up QB, who throws it over to Drew Allar, who throws it down the field to an eligible Tyler Warren. This is a great catch by Warren, but it also showcases why there may be some concern in the raw profiling idea of Warren: while it was a spectacular breakout, is it a little concerning that it took this kind of offensive mind and Warren becoming likely 22 years old to facilitate his breakout to the top of the 1st round. All that said, these plays including the original list all do showcase the kind of ball skills and YAC ability that make Warren such an intriguing prospect who also seems like a safe bet in spite of those profiling concerns. Warren bulldozes (0:00) defenders, and showcases why he has those strong MTF numbers. We also do at least get to see some routes from Warren at 1:38, 2:10, and 3:45. This is also something with questionable utility, but particularly for teams with QBs who are not like Jalen Hurts, Warren has showcased ability as a “QB Sneak” player, and given his past as a QB, this really could be something that we see at the next level as a team’s “push” player.
Tyler Warren is a particularly difficult prospect to grade for someone who bases their prospect scouting on some idea of trajectory. The conversation for Warren has to begin with “why not?” Why was he not this player prior to 2024? As a super senior breakout, there is going to be a natural question that comes with Warren’s late production, but Warren is a physical juggernaut who is slowly but surely removing all the reservations I have about his ability at the next level. Since my initial recording, I have even risen a bit as I convince myself that this early trajectory is not a concern for Tyler Warren. Warren may not have the route polish of the much younger Colston Loveland, but there is also fair reason to doubt if anyone else can translate as the physical YAC beast that Warren projects to be in this class. Statistically, only Fannin competes in the advanced numbers I look for, and that was against a typically lower competition level. Overall, Warren is still clearly not in the tier of Brock Bowers, which puts him closer to the mid-1st on my board, but both Warren and Loveland are excellent 1st-Round caliber prospects.
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DEEPER DIVE #28:
Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas
Age: 22.06
Height: 6’ 2”
Weight: 210 lbs
An elite HS prospect with a near-perfect HS prospect grade, Quinn Ewers has a phenomenal arm & release that does have a chance to tantalize an NFL team to draft him higher than his current draft projection. While there have been some things that have not quite broken Ewers’ way over the course of his career, it is important to first highlight that arm as it showcases incredible upside in at least that area of the game. Ewers has also started for three seasons with the Texas Longhorns, though it is important to note that Ewers has never completed a season without suffering an injury. Building on that point, while Ewers’ arm did deserve that prospect grade, and while he does not have any physical red flags on paper, Ewers’ size and build give substantial concern for both the ceiling and the floor. Ewers is effective at throwing the ball on the run, but he is not thickly built which limits his upside as a rusher. On top of that, it is hard to not draw a line between Ewers’ undersized frame and his constant inability to stay healthy. That durability concern has not gotten nearly as much publicity as Ewers is fighting to make the case that he deserves the consideration regardless of injury history, but it can be argued that Ewers’ injury history is worse than Michael Penix Jr. I do not have a medical background, but I am talking more from a simple games or no games perspective. While Penix had several substantial injuries, he also came into the NFL with 2 straight healthy seasons. Ewers has 0 healthy college seasons, and with 2020 being his final HS year, Ewers has not played a full healthy season since at least 2019. Finally, Ewers has one of the more creative play callers in College Football. While this is not necessarily something to hold against him, it does create questions about what the system might provide for Quinn Ewers.
Statistically, most of the biggest positives for Quinn Ewers begin with his 2023 season, as the 2024 season was ultimately a disappointment that took a step in the wrong direction. In that season, Ewers was his most consistent, which showed up in both his PFF Passing Grades and his overall Comp% (69.0%). On the surface, Ewers’ volume does not look too different from 2023 to 2024, but he did play in two more games in 2024. Ewers’ Passing YPG went from 289.9 to 248.0 from 2023 to 2024, and while he did throw more TDs per game in 2024, his TD:INT ratio went from almost 4:1 (22:6) to closer to 2.5:1 (31:12). That increase in INTs is really where the 2024 season soured on Quinn Ewers. Against Georgia in the regular season, Quinn Ewers recorded as many Turnover-Worthy-Plays as any player has done in College Football in the PFF Era. Overall, Ewers’ TWP% has gone from 3.6% to 1.7% to 4.0% over the course of his three seasons, which somewhat suggests that the 2nd season was the anomaly. Ewers struggles under pressure in particular, and has both a high Pressure-to-Sack% as well as a very poor Big Time Throw to Turnover Worthy Play ratio when pressured in 2024. Under pressure play can be variable on a small sample, but Ewers inability to create in these situations consistently and inability to even avoid big mistakes consistently is a concerning combination.
Ewers has a few good games against Alabama in previous years that are also worth digging into, but for this year, we’ll choose the game where Quinn Ewers’ hype peaked, against Michigan early in the season:
While I am admittedly harsh on Quinn Ewers’ creation ability, he does showcase a few plays in this game that show he is not completely without the ability to move around and throw on the run. There are simple plays like at 1:48 where Ewers does an excellent job of moving up into the pocket and firing the ball downfield, as well as at 4:00 where he does a good job executing while moving to his left. Frankly, even plays like at 1:15 where arguably the throw is a bit risky could at least send Ewers in the right direction; he does need to manage some of his mistake play, but becoming a bit more of a true gunslinger could help in the long run. It is more about making certain types of risks and avoiding certain types of mistakes. Ewers is also very smooth in the short and intermediate passing game, and he does well to aid his receivers in running after the catch (2:23, 3:24). All that said, throughout this video even and starting with some of those short passing plays, there are some of the signs of how the scheme helps to elevate Ewers. Coach Sarkisian’s scheme does an excellent job at moving side-to-side and using a horizontal passing game, but Ewers has struggled statistically to push the ball down the field. Ewers also does have mobility (0:41), but it is also poor in comparison to most prospects particularly in the modern NFL, and particularly if we are looking for upside both in the NFL and for Fantasy. This may be a bit of unfair criticism, but when plays are broken like at 3:40, Ewers even in the red zone has no real ability to try and push forward and get himself into the endzone. Most QBs in this class, even ones that don’t seem to measure very differently than Ewers, are putting down their shoulders and trying to fight to get into the endzone under any circumstances. Ewers’ frame and potentially durability concerns limit that utility. I’m not sure if this would come up if they were not being written about consecutively due to their same-time elimination from the CFB Playoff, but if Tyler Warren and Quinn Ewers were on the same team, Quinn Ewers would likely never run a QB Sneak.
Based on the prospect hype, arm talent, and the idea of the second year in the system, Quinn Ewers was a QB that, in my eyes, felt like a safe bet prior to the 2023 season. Since about halfway through that season, I have not seen Quinn Ewers in that same light. There is a disconnect in my eyes between the skills that give most modern QBs high upside and the skills that Quinn Ewers excels at. There are certainly advantages to accessing Ewers’ high upside arm, but creation and mobility are the skills that seem to translate more broadly and at a higher level. Ewers’ creation ability and practical mobility are both highly questionable, with his practical mobility having significant questions driven by his physique and his lack of career durability. On top of that, if Ewers was as polished from the pocket as either Penix or Nix in the previous class, he could be seen as possibly a similar version to one of those QBs, but Ewers struggles far more in areas as a pocket passer like his response to pressure. There may still be an old-school offensive coach appeal for many coordinators towards Quinn Ewers, but he will need to have a superb process in order to push his draft stock into an area where he is likely to be given a legitimate chance to start at the NFL level. Right now, he has a 3rd Round Grade on my board, and is creeping towards being even my QB6, but right now sits as my QB5.
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DEEPER DIVE #29:
Matthew Golden, WR, Texas
Age: 22.01
Height: 6’ 0”
Weight: 195 lbs
Most of the prospects like Kaleb Johnson and Tyler Warren who are similarly dubbed the biggest risers in this class made their rise throughout the entire 2024 season. About 8-10 games into the 2024 season, Texas transfer WR and former Houston WR Matthew Golden was pacing a fairly disappointing season. But starting towards the end of the regular season and continuing through the playoffs, Matthew Golden has been the rapid riser of the 2025 Class. He seems to have universal appeal among draft media at this stage, and it now appears more likely that Golden is drafted in the 1st Round than falls out of the top 50 picks. Golden is not a “nobody” as a prospect; coming out of HS, Golden was a 4-Star prospect, and he made an instant impact for Houston during his first year. Unfortunately, Golden’s career then entered a lull that lasted throughout 2023 and into the beginning of 2024 as mentioned earlier. At least with Texas, we may be able to blame the Transfer situation for the slow start, but when Isaiah Bond suffered an ankle sprain, Golden stepped up and particularly put up fantastic games against Georgia and Arizona State. Perhaps he would go under the radar in other classes, but in a class that so badly needs WR talent, it seems that Matthew Golden is poised to fly up rankings and land in the top 5 at WR.
Golden is an intriguing case in how we look at analytics. In several different ways, Golden fails to hit a particular threshold, but in some manner of principle, succeeds in an analytical way. For example, Golden does not have a particularly strong early breakout season, but 38 Receptions, 583 Yards, and 7 TDs as a true freshman is highly encouraging. Golden also does not have a peak season that hits thresholds that are particularly encouraging, but he does have what you may look at as a peak run. From the Kentucky game through the Arizona State game (he was injured against Ohio State), Golden had 27 Receptions for 519 Yards in 5 Games. While this is a small sample, it is also important to note that CFB has significantly greater disproportionate importance between different games, so Golden having these performances in games that sealed Texas’ SEC Championship appearance, in that SEC Title game, and in the Playoffs is highly significant. Golden is also another WR in this class who showcases excellent hands. Not only does he have a relatively low Drop%, but in 2024, Matthew Golden scored very well in his contested catches on PFF. And while Golden is not rated quite as highly as a YAC/Missed Tackles Forced player, he also scores well enough to check a box in this category as well. As an early declare, Golden does not hit certain thresholds across the board, but there are a lot of principles within analytics that Golden’s career still represents.
As the point of these Deeper Dives is largely to focus on who prospects can be in terms of their traits, we’re obviously going to be picking between Golden’s two elite games in the Postseason, in this case, his 2nd Round performance in a tight game against Arizona State:
It may only be one game, but in many ways, the Arizona State film showcases everything you want to see from a WR prospect, at least one of Golden’s size and archetype. Golden is not particularly thick and does not have a huge career of YAC success, but in the very first play (0:00), Golden sticks his foot in the dirt and changes direction with good explosiveness. At the catch point, Golden particularly excelled this past year and in this game. He does an excellent job of high pointing the pass at 0:45, showcasing his ability to play beyond his frame. And finally, beyond the potential in both the YAC and contested catch areas, at 1:25, Golden creates a natural pocket of separation breaking back towards the QB, and also extends this play as a ball carrier. While the play at 2:05 is against a Cover 0 look, the defender likely knows he does not have much help, and Golden does not just win his route, but dusts the defender behind him to create an easy pass for Ewers regardless of the pressure generated by the Cover 0 look.
The most recent rapid riser of the 2025 Draft Class, there is a clear appeal in Matthew Golden. If you’re looking for a prospect who checks all the boxes we’re looking for at the WR positon, Golden is likely not your guy. But if you’re willing to squint and give some benefit of the doubt in some areas, even analytically you can draw at least some appeal with Matthew Golden. On film, there are some traits that could appeal in a similar fashion to a player like Garrett Wilson. That’s obviously a lofty comparison, and the lack of consistency and production shed far more doubt on this profile compared to Wilson pre-draft, but that is a physical similarity that may represent Golden well. Ultimately, in a class that needs players to rise above the 3rd Round Grade, Golden is one of the only players in this class that I have a 2nd Round Grade on, and that puts him around my WR4 or WR5 in this class.
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DEEPER DIVE #30:
Isaiah Bond, WR, Texas
Age: 21.06
Height: 5’ 11”
Weight: 180 lbs
While no player has risen as quickly and as recently as his teammate Matthew Golden, Isaiah Bond seems to be a player who is rapidly falling in his current projections. Throughout most of the year, Bond was a projected top 50 pick, but he has not been ranked in the top 50 or top 2 rounds of any “sharp” Mock Draft or Big Board that I personally follow post-draft. That may change as he is someone who may do particularly well at the NFL Combine, but Bond is definitely a player I do not expect to have much widespread appeal at this point. Bond is undersized, and will score very poorly as an analytical prospect. All of that said, I do myself have a bit of a hard time quitting Isaiah Bond entirely. Production is more valuable than raw athleticism, but Bond’s athleticism truly is special with speed that is not just linear, but also comes with lateral agility that may translate to being a high-upside screen weapon. A 4-Star prospect, part of this evaluation feels confirmed by the fact that he was graded as closer to a 5-Star player as a transfer after two years at Alabama. Bond is also very young, and while most players who do not produce stockpile excuses throughout their career, Bond did have far better production before his ankle sprain against Oklahoma.
Getting into that production split, Bond is one of those intriguing cases where regardless of the “truth,” it may be a better idea to just focus on the lack of production and state that Bond is an analytically poor prospect. However, in my eyes, regardless of how good of a prospect Bond is, it is hard to not focus a good portion of the blame for his downturn on his ankle injury suffered against Oklahoma. While the competition level was not fantastic, in the 5 Games before the Ankle injury, Bond had 20 Receptions, 364 Yards, and 3 TDs, which would have been a pace of over 1,000 Yards and 8 Receiving TDs. Bond was also particularly efficient in this stretch with over 3 Y/RR in those first 5 games. However, his overall production in 2024 was poor as he failed to crack a 1 Y/RR through the rest of the season. Bond was also particularly woeful as a contested catch receiver. In the first five games, Bond caught a healthy 2 of his 4 contested targets, but after the first five games, Bond caught only 1 of 7 contested targets. This is not a purely analytical argument, and perhaps not a fair one, but it does create a concern for me that Bond struggles to play through injuries and adverse situations, which overcoming those situations is ultimately one of the key fundamental reasons that I believe a history of production matters so much at the WR position.
Most players, we are looking for games where they played one of their toughest tests. However, since Bond’s production is so limited and we are mostly focusing on the upside in the traits, I’ve chosen this game against UTSA to highlight some of Bond’s upside ability:
While there are easy things to point out with the speed and quickness of Isaiah Bond, the real intrigue comes from the fact that he has all of that AND at least flashes a bit of toughness at the catch point and as a ball carrier. The slant at 0:20 is not much, but these tough interior catches alongside all of the vertical and horizontal stretching (0:48 shallow cross) Bond can do could go a long way in developing his utility at the next level. And in the very first play of this video (0:00), we see Bond create not just with speed, but with physicality as a runner. Bond will probably get some of his hype restored at least in some communities when he runs his 40, but the athletic explosiveness for Bond goes far beyond just straight line speed. On a screen at 0:10, Bond sticks his foot in the ground and cuts, showcasing some of this ability that is not just linear. That speed is on full display at 1:17, as Bond rockets away for a “wave good-bye” TD. Once again, the competition level isn’t great, and Sarkisian creates a lot of these looks for Bond. But Bond’s natural talent is very evidence when watching him play, and it does need to be mentioned that the ankle sprain sapped a lot of the momentum for Bond in 2024.
There was a time in this season where someone would have said that Isaiah Bond would be a massive bust, and at this point it looks like they might be right. Obviously his career has not even started, but analytically and at a production-driven position, there are just numerous red flags with Isaiah Bond. That said, at this point, Isaiah Bond will not be a bust. You have to be valued highly to be a bust. Isaiah Bond looks like a player that, at least at this point, it seems the community will be absolutely willing to let drop even possibly below what his draft capital may suggest. At or above his draft capital, even I may not be intrigued to buy Isaiah Bond, but if he is a large market fade, Bond might be a player I end up taking a shot on and banking on there being some high degree of upside. Bond likely should be considered a dart throw at this point, but as long as you only pay to throw a dart, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. At this point, he is one of the few players I have a clear Round 3 grade on, though that is largely due to his speed, universal utility, and age / early declare, the latter of which suggests he may have some untapped potential.
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DEEPER DIVE #31:
Gunnar Helm, TE, Texas
Age: 23.00
Height: 6’ 5”
Weight: 250 lbs
The numbers for Gunnar Helm may not be particularly eye-popping, but it does feel like he is becoming one of the more forgotten TEs in a very stacked class. Helm took a big step forward as a producer in 2024, and while part of that was potentially as simple as filling in for Ja’Tavion Sanders who departed for the NFL, Helm was very effective at both the catch point and as a ball carrier. This may be a comp created from watching them both breakout at the same time, but the listed size suggests that my comparison to Tucker Kraft might not be totally out of line. Helm was not productive prior to 2024, but it is important to mention once again that he was behind JT Sanders. While not a huge profile, that is still a Receiving-focused TE who was drafted in the first 2 picks of Day 3. And while he did play behind Sanders, given his more prototypical size to play in-line, Helm may see himself drafted more highly than his former teammate.
Helm did get on the field at times for the Longhorns, but in his first three seasons, Helm never surpassed 14 Receptions, 192 Yards, or 2 TDs. However, in his breakout 2024 season, Gunnar Helm put together 60 Receptions, 786 Yards, and 7 TDs. The proportions and output were not quite to the level of Warren or Fannin, and he was not quite as vital to his team as Loveland, but he was a significant part of this passing offense sitting just at about 17-18% of his team’s Receptions, Receiving Yards, and Receiving TDs. To put it in a simple way, Helm had very good-to-great TE numbers, just not “lead WR” numbers. Helm did not have a ton of contested opportunities, but he converted a fair percentage of them, and in particular he showcased some ability to break tackles and extend plays. The 12 Missed Tackles Forced number may not be particularly flashy, but it is far greater than some of the TEs who struggle more with YAC in this class like Loveland & Taylor.
Gunnar Helm had most of his best career games in 2024, and the one I’ve chosen to highlight here came early in the season against Michigan:
Helm is another player whose true value has come largely from their ability to be consistent, which is hard to see in the highlights from a single game. That said, we do get some signs of Helm’s YAC ability at 1:15 and particularly at 0:56 as Helm reverses field and shows just a bit of that ball carrier juice that will likely be a major calling card. At the catch point, we see at least one play at 0:25 where Helm combines high pointing the football with enough sideline awareness to complete the catch. Where Helm falls among NFL TEs is obviously tough to judge, but he shows some raw athletic speed at 1:20 on the crossing route to stay ahead of his defender and create the window to throw for his QB. A few of these traits come together in the very first play at 0:00, as Helm gets to display a bit of route running as well as an adjustment to a tipped pass.
In a more shallow TE class, Helm’s breakout 2024 might get more press. In comparison to the breakouts of Warren and Fannin, Helm’s breakout largely went unheralded. That said, Helm showcased not just an ability to produce, but utilize size, catch point ability, consistent hands, and juice as a ball carrier to achieve solid proportions for the Texas Longhorns in the SEC. Perhaps it is the simultaneous breakouts, but Gunnar Helm reminds me quite a bit of Green Bay Packers breakout TE, Tucker Kraft, and he likely has a similar skill-set and upside at the next level. Right now, Gunnar Helm lists as a 3rd Round Grade on my board, and remains in the Top 5 at the TE position, though I am also considering the rise of Elijah Arroyo as I finish up this series of Deeper Dives.
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DEEPER DIVE #32:
Dylan Sampson, RB, Tennessee
Age: 21.00
Height: 5’ 11”
Weight: 201 lbs
While most of the pre-season conversation surrounding the Tennessee Volunteers focused on potential 2026 QB Nico Iamaleava, Dylan Sampson quickly emerged throughout the season as the heart & soul of the Tennessee offense. The youngest player discovered so far in the Deeper Dive series for 2025, Sampson will not turn 21 until around the 2nd Week of the 2025 NFL Season. Sampson does only have the single year of production, but he was behind Jaylen Wright, who at the very least was drafted by a team willing to trade a 2025 3rd Round Pick for him. Sampson is not as explosive as Wright, but he possesses a lot of qualities that transition well to the consistency elements of the NFL game. In particular, while Sampson is the smallest RB by listed size in my top 10, he has shown himself to be an excellent short-yardage RB so far in his career. This is highlighted by his 22 Rushing TDs in 2024.
Dylan Sampson is another RB that might be a bit of an odd-fit at the next level, and one area that highlights this is his pass catching. If Sampson was a developed, accomplished, proven, and productive receiving back, he could be a player who easily rivals the top of this class. As is, Sampson’s peak season in 2024 came with 20 Receptions for 143 Yards and 0 TDs. Sampson did have a couple drops this year, though he was a dynamic broken tackles threat as a receiver which could highlight some upside at the next level. Sampson’s most impressive statistics come from the TD category, which is not what you usually expect from a RB with his size and frame at the SEC level. However, Sampson has utilized what size he has with excellent vision to become a highly effective and consistent short-yardage back. Sampson’s strength in this area comes more from his vision and decisiveness than his power & contact balance, but on the number itself, Sampson has been very effective as a Missed Tackles Forced back throughout his career. Like most RBs in this class, he is nowhere near the tier of Ashton Jeanty or Cam Skattebo, but he is very clearly in that next tier of players alongside some of the better broken tackle players in this class. In total, Sampson finished his only season starting for Tennessee with 258 Carries, 1,491 Rushing Yards, and 22 Rushing TDs against a difficult SEC schedule. He also did not play much against Ohio State due to injury.
For Dylan Sampson, we have a nice extended highlight video against a tough Georgia front from this season:
Most highlight films and plays in this section work to showcase a player at their most spectacular, but for Dylan Sampson, the first highlight has to be just the complete consistency in the volume of short yardage plays with a fairly high degree of success (0:00, 2:21, 2:38, 3:27, 5:23, 5:32, 5:45, 6:07, 6:35, 7:15, 7:20). And while consistency is probably Sampson’s greatest ally, he does showcase at 0:06 the ability to explode when he bursts through the other side of the line of scrimmage. Sampson also shows a bit more of his creativity in reversing field at 0:35, and is particularly impressive at 3:55 as he splits a pair of defenders and bursts into daylight. One of the biggest questions for Sampson remains his pass catching ability, and this game is a mixed bag. He does have an excellent swing catch at 2:10 as well as another pair of targets at 5:55 and 8:07, but Sampson also does drop an easy checkdown target at 1:14. Drops are becoming something that, at least analytically, is considered more and more excusable for Wide Receivers, but that is also in part because of their quality of target. Dropping checkdowns is a significantly bigger concern.
One of the most productive players in 2024 and the youngest player in Fantasy in this class, Dylan Sampson has a lot of appeals for how he might translate to the next level. Unfortunately, the lack of pass catching in particular makes the way he will translate a bit of a question. We can hope this is simply a result of the system, but that at the very least makes pass catching a projection at the next level. However, what Sampson lacks in pass catching, he makes up for as a tough two-down back that plays far beyond his size in short yardage situations. Youth is often more of a market factor than a huge value for a player, but in this case, it is also worth pointing out that Sampson’s youth may suggest a possibility for more growth as a 3rd Down Back. All of this considered, Sampson is one of my favorite RBs after my clear top 5, and finds himself with Jordan James and Devin Neal as the three RBs (RB6-8) listed in my Clear 3rd Round Tier.
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DEEPER DIVE #33:
Trevor Etienne, RB, Georgia
Age: 21.02
Height: 5’ 8 1/2”
Weight: 202 lbs
The younger brother of Jaguars RB Travis Etienne, while playing the same position may draw some similar ideas, Trevor Etienne is actually a significantly different RB compared to his older brother. The younger Etienne, who was officially measured at the Senior Bowl at only 5’ 8 ½”, runs with a lower center of gravity, and while he weighed in at “only” 202 lbs, he is a very solid BMI for his height and possesses good strength as a runner. Etienne has also had surprising efficiency as a pass catcher, which signals some possible upside as a 3-Down player. Etienne is one of the youngest players in this class, and so while not all of his career production was ideal, there is significant reason to believe that Etienne still has room to grow and mature. On that final note, Etienne does have significant negative buzz which began when he transferred from Florida to Georgia, and then made a few mistakes and potential mistakes between an off-season DUI and comments that at least upset the Florida faithful. And afterall, this was supposed to be Etienne’s big year; between injuries and graduations, Etienne was perfectly situated at the beginning of the year to be a huge focal point for this offense, but his suspension and health got in the way. Still, as this section began, Etienne has many solid building blocks for a very young RB prospect.
At RB, I do generally prefer to see a RB have a single, explosive, and dynamic season, but at the very least, Etienne has been an effective player since he was a young freshman. Etienne has never had fewer than 118 Carries, 609 Rushing Yards, or 6 Rushing TDs across his 3 seasons in the SEC. As his worst numbers, those are not too bad. However, Etienne has also never surpassed 131 Carries, 753 Yards, or 9 Rushing TDs. This season was supposed to be the big step forward, but Etienne struggled throughout the year with injury. While there are a few other numbers and film observations that help sell the idea that Etienne has upside beyond those surface numbers, the most intriguing number for Etienne is likely his career Catch%. While Etienne has not been utilized downfield in a particularly high-volume way, on two teams across three years, Etienne has compiled 62 Receptions on 63 Targets according to PFF. That, at least on some level, likely indicates a high degree of consistency. Etienne also showcases numbers that help to highlight our two major focal traits at the RB position: Burst & Balance. Etienne has a solid rate of forcing missed tackles, and is one of the better RBs in this class per touch at turning his carries into explosive and breakaway plays.
Though Etienne did have a few solid performances this year, between the injury, limited role, and suspension against Clemson, I’ve chosen to use a 2023 film for Etienne against Tennessee (and while playing with Florida):
There are a number of good RBs who have solid vision ranked around this section of my RB rankings, but this video from Etienne constantly shows a RB picking spots and being able to find cut-back lanes. This is showcased particularly at 1:00 and 3:05. Etienne is also not shy when it comes to simply hitting the hole hard (0:00). Etienne probably will not test as an apex physical talent, but he does showcase solid burst throughout this video, as well as solid speed to the outside at 3:45. The real strength of Etienne’s game is the balance between it all. For example, at 0:26, his physicality is extremely important, but Etienne does not simply seek out contact. There is a utilization of hesitation and an ability to weave away from traffic that will create worse contact and allow Etienne to be effective at the next level.
2024 may not have been the season Trevor Etienne envisioned, but for as poor as at least one of his decisions was this off-season, Etienne is still a very young, very talented RB who checks a lot of boxes that I am looking for in a RB. Realistically, he checks them all. Etienne scores highly enough on my board in Burst, Balance, Vision, and Pass Catching ability. The numbers may not be particularly impressive, and physically he is under 5’ 9” and barely over 200 lbs, but Etienne is simply a RB I see as having a potential on all 3-Downs at the NFL level. If he can utilize the Senior Bowl, Combine, and overall process to restore his stock, Etienne could be a RB who rises to the top of a questionable room if given the appropriate opportunity. He does not quite have as high of a grade as my favorite 3 RBs outside the top 5 (James, Sampson, Neal), but Etienne is in that very next sub-tier of RBs with a late-3rd Round Grade.
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DEEPER DIVE #34:
Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State
Age: 22.11
Height: 6’ 1”
Weight: 205 lbs
In many ways, Emeka Egbuka is one of those players where it is not necessarily about how you evaluate the player, but what you value in your WR evaluations. Egbuka is not the biggest, fastest, strongest, or particularly elite in any facet of the WR position. Despite this, he is one of my favorite WRs in this class. While this might be surprising considering the lack of an elite trait, Emeka Egbuka was a very highly sought after prospect and the #1 WR in his HS class by many HS prospect rankings. Egbuka’s surface stats peaked as a sophomore, but Egbuka’s “bad” has been better than many prospect’s “good.” He has been efficient and consistent throughout his entire career. Both Egbuka and Henderson will be knocked analytically for returning for their senior seasons, which will also make each player nearly 23 Years Old when the 2025 NFL season begins. While this is not ideal and makes both of these players older than the median Day 2 fantasy prospect, Egbuka is at least still a true senior and not a particularly old player. The early production and efficiency also help to off-set this concern at least a bit. The biggest overall question with Egbuka will be what his role is at the next level. Egbuka has functioned primarily out of the slot, and while WRs can have fantasy success in primarily slot roles, most WRs who have success at play largely inside also play significant snaps in outside WR roles as well. In general, Egbuka being seen as more of the #2 to both Marvin Harrison Jr. and Jeremiah Smith may create questions as to whether he is a “true alpha.”
As a true sophomore, playing within the toughest WR room in CFB, Emeka Egbuka managed to produce 74 Receptions, 1,151 Yards, and 10 TDs. While these statistics were with C.J. Stroud, they represented an excellent percentage of Ohio State’s total passing yardage output. And even when Egbuka’s overall production dropped significantly as a true junior in 2023, he still managed to be at least a modestly productive WR with 2.01 Y/RR in spite of playing through injury and missing several games. That Y/RR number increased to back over 2.5 in 2024, and while it did take the full 16 Games of the new extended season, Egbuka broke through 1,000 yards for the 2nd time in his CFB career. Egbuka has shown up well in contested catch numbers, and is like a few WRs in this class with good-but-not-great tackle evading ability displayed by exactly 10 MTF in each of the last two seasons. Finally, while this is not necessarily about Egbuka’s statistics directly, the big question is again how often he can play outside. While there are several WRs in Fantasy Football who are perceived as playing primarily in the Slot, a strong majority of WRs with 100+ targets played in the Slot under 50% of the time, and the vast majority played there under 60%. Key players like ARSB and Lamb are only a hair about 50%. The only two fantasy-relevant players who played in the slot over 60% of the time (100+ targets) in 2024 according to PFF were Ladd McConkey and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, with Josh Downs potentially deserving an honorable mention there.
Players like Egbuka with a career of consistent production really showcase their value in how frequently they impact games on some level, but to showcase Egbuka in a single game, I’ve selected this video against Iowa:
In particular, this video will do a good job of showcasing what Egbuka can do at the catch point. Egbuka does an excellent job during this video working back towards the football and making difficult catches that go beyond his listed frame. This is the case at both 0:05 and for a TD at 1:45. Egbuka also has a few catches under duress in this video, such as at 0:16 and 1:30, showcasing his ability to remain strong at the catch point in spite of significant contact. While we do not get much of it in this video, the 0:16 catch in particular does show a full field replay which allows us to get a bit more of a taste of Egbuka’s ability to separate. It is this separation and consistent separation that is hard to find on videos that we use for this deeper dive segment. Egbuka is a finesse player, and that is both the reason to support him, and possibly the reason he has so many detractors. If there were anything that could be just a bit better in Egbuka’s game in that area, it would likely be in his speed variations throughout his routes, but Egbuka is a very smooth player who seems to be potentially the best “separator” of this class.
For some players, the controversy is hard to put your finger on, but for Emeka Egbuka, it is very obvious both what his fans love (the performance and efficiency) and what his detractors dislike (his lack of apex physical ability). One of my basic theories surrounding the WR position is that, at the very least relative to the market, athletic traits are overrated for the way they showcase upside in WRs. At some positions, saying “look at this subpar athlete” is simply using a misleading sample, but WRs have commonly had physical questions at one testing variable or another. In reality, athletic traits are a better influencer for your floor; size and speed are both utilities that NFL teams desire, and possessing one alongside any other viable traits can dramatically increase your chance of getting further chances at the NFL level. It seems almost strange to say for some odd reason, but in my estimation, upside comes from proof and performance. Players who produce at a high level in proportions and efficiency, or at the very least have a viable excuse for failing to do so, are the players who I generally see as having the greater upside between the two sets of archetypes. With that in mind, while I do have some fear about Egbuka not being a “true alpha,” he has enough similarities with WRs ranging from Amon-Ra St. Brown to teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba and even over to a player like Chris Godwin that he is the WR I am actually willing to bet on the most right now once Tetairoa McMillan (and Travis Hunter) are off the board. This is another razor thin margin between Egbuka and tier-mate Luther Burden III, but right now I am leaning towards Egbuka even if I like both prospects a good deal. The Egbuka/Burden tier corresponds with closer to top 20 NFL Draft Capital.
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DEEPER DIVE #35:
TreVeyon Henderson, WR, Ohio State
Age: 22.10
Height: 5’ 10”
Weight: 208 lbs
TreVeyon Henderson is not a late riser in quite the same way as Matthew Golden, as TreVeyon Henderson had a massive prospect profile in the Devy community particularly after his 2021 freshman season, but he is at least one of the biggest risers from the first ever 12-Team College Football Playoff. Henderson is only listed at 208 lbs, but his build and frame suggest a RB who would be considered to have excellent size. On top of that, Henderson has elite explosive burst which was well utilized in the CFB Playoff. While he has not done it consistently, Henderson has also put together at least one high-level season as a pass catching RB, suggesting high upside in that capacity. This is also not something brought up with every RB, but Henderson has excellent ball security. All of that said, Henderson has not quite lived up to his original billing as an elite prospect. In particular, while he looks the part physically, Henderson does not seem to entirely play up to his physical size. While it is also hard to consider what is or is not a durability issue moving forward, Henderson did miss time in both his sophomore and junior years, and while he did not miss time in 2024, that lack of missed time did obviously align with a significantly reduced workload sharing the backfield with Quinshon Judkins. Henderson has been around CFB as a major player for four full seasons now, but he has never surpassed 183 Carries or 210 Touches, and those were both in his freshman season in 2021. This was also mentioned with Egbuka as well, but Henderson will not be closer to 23 years old during his rookie season, which is not particularly old by any means, but he is older than the median Day 2 fantasy prospect.
Since the statistics analysis in most prospects focuses on the positives of their performance and production, there are very few prospects where we discuss the freshman year in detail, if at all. For both Henderson and his teammate, Quinshon Judkins, the freshman year was the peak. While Henderson did not have a particularly large volume in 2024, he did compile 183 Carries, 1,248 Rushing Yards, 15 Rushing TDs, 27 Receptions, 312 Yards, and another 4 Receiving TDs, good for 120 Total Yards and almost 1.5 Total TDs per game as a true freshman. In particular, the 27/312/4 as a pass catcher gives belief that Henderson has high upside in that category. While his sophomore year was the most disappointing, Henderson was almost definitely playing on a broken foot throughout the season. The injuries get into the subjective analytical portion of Henderson: if you excuse his 2024 volume as a part of his situation with Judkins and the objectives of himself and Ohio State, and if you excuse parts of 2022 & 2023 due to injury, then Henderson may be a very appealing RB prospect to look out for. Perhaps the durability concerns from 2022-2023 keep him from the highest volume role, but there is at least some argument that those durability concerns can be thrown up to chance. Throughout his ups & downs, Henderson has compiled a career total of 590 Carries with almost 6.5 YPC. That said, while that number is highly impressive, Henderson’s Missed Tackles Forced rate is one of the worst in this entire class. For one final tidbit which could help with his draft stock/narrative, Henderson has not fumbled in the last three years according to PFF.
There are significant postseason highlights for TreVeyon Henderson, as well as peak performances throughout his four years. For this overview, we’ll start with the first Oregon game from 2024, which occurred earlier in the regular season. This video does have an introduction that has nothing to do with Henderson:
While there are quite a few RBs who happen to have high-end explosive traits, none in this class are as explosive as TreVeyon Henderson. It is not much, but we get at least a taste of that explosive ability at 0:50 and 1:05. Henderson is not only able to run past defenders, but the ability to instantly accelerate beyond would-be tacklers is something Henderson does at the highest level. However, the stretch plays at 1:25 and 1:30 are excellent examples where you would expect a RB with Henderson’s size and natural physique to have the ability to push forward just a bit more. While it is a game from 2023, I will also be using Henderson’s game against Wisconsin from last year:
This game is one of those games that really showcases why at least some analysts may say the phrase “First Round” when it comes to TreVeyon Henderson. Very few prospects have a game at this level, and so it is worth watching the entire 8 minutes. That said, for our purposes, I wanted to particularly highlight a number of receptions like at 0:32 or a series of plays that begins at 2:30. The goal with Henderson’s pass catching ability is not to suggest he is necessarily an excellent route runner or diverse player necessarily, but Henderson’s explosive ability is the kind that you merely need to get into space. By being effectively reliable, Henderson will be a player teams want to get into space. He also has fantastic plays like at 3:52 which showcase that acceleration and at 6:22 which showcase primarily who he could be if he were a more consistent physical runner. 6:22 is a physical running play, but plays where Henderson excels with this level of physical running are unfortunately too few and far between on his career tape.
Henderson will never return to the full level of fantasy hype he experienced at least relatively in the Devy community around the end of 2021 when he completed his freshman season, but it does seem so far like Henderson’s well-timed postseason explosion has begun to turn a narrative back in his favor. The big plays which either worked to ice games or place Ohio State back in advantageous positions were hard to miss as there were so many of them, and Henderson’s explosive capability was constantly on full display. The workload and durability questions will persist throughout the draft season as well, and perhaps we are just in the midst of a roller coaster of praise and scrutiny, but the postseason is a variable we’ve never had to consider or wager before, and I am going to estimate that teams are going to weigh those performances disproportionately, and at least some team out there will have an Owner+GM combination that fell in love with Henderson during the playoff run. Henderson is currently my RB3, as Omarion Hampton and Henderson are getting a bump in Tier 2 as the better (or at least more proven) pass catchers of the group. This corresponds with a top 75 pick, probably closer to the late 2nd round, though I do not currently expect Henderson to still be on the board in the late 2nd round.
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DEEPER DIVE #36:
Quinshon Judkins, RB, Ohio St.
Age: 21.10
Height: 6’ 0”
Weight: 219 lbs
It is hard to avoid tying together TreVeyon Henderson and former Ole Miss RB Quinshon Judkins. Not only did they obviously share the same backfield in 2024, giving us an opportunity to compare them side-by-side, but they are both prospects who were once seen as the next great RB prospect after their freshman seasons. Judkins was not the HS prospect that Henderson was, so maybe that was premature for some, but Quinshon Judkins as a true freshman was phenomenal for Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss. While Henderson may physically appear to be the larger of the two RBs at least by their upper body size, Judkins is the far more physical rusher. However, he also lacks the higher-end pass-catching season that RBs like Jeanty, Henderson, and Hampton have in that top tier. Judkins may not have had the explosive overall postseason that Henderson did, but he did have a tremendous final game to his Ohio State career. Judkins is not one of the youngest RBs in this class, but he is obviously a fairly young RB as an early declare. On one final quick note up top, there were a lot of rumors and speculations surrounding Judkins’ exit from Ole Miss. Whether those were overblown, a humbling experience, or simply something that did not become an issue for a player on a championship roster, there seems to have been little-to-no drama surrounding Quinshon Judkins in 2024.
Once again much like his teammate, TreVeyon Henderson, Judkins’ profile begins with his tremendous freshman season, which can also likely be considered his peak. In 13 Games as a true freshman, Judkins touched the ball nearly 300 times and totaled 1,699 Total Yards, 17 Total TDs, and over 130 Total YPG in 2022. Judkins 2023 was certainly a step in the wrong direction, though even in 2023, Judkins got stronger throughout the season after a poor start. While his efficiency was still down in 2023, Judkins had over 100 Total YPG and 13 TDs in his last 9 Games of the 2023 season. Finally, in 2024, Judkins obviously has the split backfield with Henderson, which is hard to judge from just his raw statistical output. There are a few small deviations between my fantasy rankings and a pure NFL ranking, and Judkins is knocked comparatively to Hampton & Henderson due to his lack of receiving profile. Judkins does seem to have significant skill in that area, and I do believe he can translate as a 3-Down RB, but Judkins matched his career highs in 2024 with 22 Receptions and 2 Receiving TDs while setting his career high in receiving yards with 161. These are certainly not poor statistics, but they do not prove the same things we have seen out of Hampton & Henderson. All that said, Judkins might actually be closer to my NFL RB2 because my read of the traits and analytics suggests that Judkins is far better at creating by himself. Hampton & Henderson may score better than Judkins as receivers, but Judkins excels beyond both in his ability to generate missed tackles, and scores higher than both on PFF in total career MTF and MTF per Attempt.
While Judkins has a number of excellent performances across his career, the last one may be his best in the National Championship against Notre Dame. Unfortunately, this is a full game highlight video:
As a receiver, Judkins may not have many highlights that are particularly impressive, but this game does at least feature Judkins taking some good quick screens (3:55) and finding his way into empty space for a Receiving TD (9:05). Considering the high degree of importance that his pass catching potential has on his performance for fantasy at the next level, it is at least nice to see Judkins able to convert these plays. The real positive attributes of Judkins though can be found in the physicality. At 6:50, Judkins throws a stiff arm and runs with every ounce of his size. There are a few RBs in this class that have similar physical approaches, but Judkins has just a little bit more heft than some of these players, as displayed at the 10:00 mark. And while a lot of Judkins' appeal comes from his burst & balance, he does show nice quick cuts at 9:40 that he takes advantage of in part because of his higher-level burst.
When it comes to the three RBs ranked above Quinshon Judkins, at least on my board, all three have a tremendous pass catching season that Judkins simply lacks. For Fantasy Football, this is extremely important unless you play in a league that features 0 Points per Reception to the RB position. However, Judkins may actually be the RB I want the second most for my NFL team. There are surely going to be a few coordinators out there who think they can make TreVeyon Henderson into an explosive play machine, and they may very well be right, but Judkins is the second best RB in this class behind Ashton Jeanty at creating for himself by combining explosive burst, vision, and tackle breaking ability. Judkins currently sits as my RB4 on my official ranking, but there is not too much of a gap between anyone in that tier of RBs 2-5 that sits behind Ashton Jeanty. The grading for this tier aligns with the mid-late 2nd and very early-3rd, or a firm top-75 grade.
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DEEPER DIVE #37:
Will Howard, QB, Ohio St.
Age: 23.11
Height: 6’ 4”
Weight: 235 lbs
The final big postseason riser of the first CFB playoff, Will Howard did not necessarily hit the ground running with Ohio State, but essentially from the moment that he threw a pick six against Penn State, Will Howard has been a QB who is at least a notch above the player who played for Kansas State. The most difficult variable right away in the evaluation of Will Howard will be how much of his late development comes from having by far the greatest combination of RB and WR talent that CFB has to offer. There may be these significant questions remaining for Will Howard’s game, but Howard does have many traits that translate to having significant NFL upside. He has a great frame, and at the very least good mobility and a good arm for an NFL QB. Will Howard also may not have played to this level previously in his career, but he has always been at least a solid QB who was solid at KSU and transferred to Ohio State for a reason. Howard’s addition to the Deeper Dives age list means the list has a new oldest player for this class (until I add Dillon Gabriel with the very next Deeper Dive), so that is at least something to keep in mind, but at the very least he is still younger than QBs who have recently found success or promise like Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. Compared to those players, and even Ward/Sanders, Howard’s experience is also a bit harder to account for. Howard has started several games over the course of 5 years, but has only truly started consistently over the last 2.5.
Early in the season I made a fairly controversial claim that based on recent history, QB breakouts should be easily identifiable within the first few weeks of the CFB season. If there is one player who potentially challenges this dynamic for 2025, it is Will Howard. Obviously the 12-Team Playoff was not in previous years, and having those 4 Playoff Games gave Howard far more runway to start the season slow and improve after a certain point. When Howard threw the pick-six against Penn State, he slipped to a Big Time Throw : Turnover Worth Play ratio of 9:10. From that moment forward, that number has flipped around to 13:5. Howard did still struggle in the Michigan game of course, but particularly aside from this game, Howard was excellent throughout the rest of the season. Howard has also never had a particular problem with avoiding Sacks and keeping sacks from turning into pressures, but his Pressure-To-Sack% over those last 8 games was a very impressive sub-10%. Howard is also effectively able to turn these almost-sacks into rushing gains. He has never been the biggest rushing producer to flash an impressive stat, but he at least has 16 Rushing TDs over the course of the last two seasons. All of these things with Will Howard are impressive, but it is important to note that the 13 total Big Time Throws in particular over those 8 games is still a moderately impressive figure at best. That is an important context given his high-end supporting cast.
Similarly to Quinshon Judkins before, this Deeper Dive segment will showcase Will Howard’s performance against Notre Dame in the National Championship, once again on a full-game highlight video:
In this starved QB environment, it makes sense to start just talking about what we see from Howard physically throughout this video: Howard has excellent size and a good bit of durability to translate to the modern game. Howard utilizes this size well with excellent power at 4:40 and 6:40 as a designed rusher, as well as showcases an ability to take off when the coverage allows at 6:15 and 8:50. As a passer, Howard shows an ability to make plays and find spots against the defense like at 6:00 and 8:45. There is also at least some indication of his ability to play tough under pressure on plays like at 8:00. While most of this section is supposed to highlight the abilities of Will Howard, the play at 4:50 is a good indication of the combination of scheme and offensive talent that helps to elevate Howard statistically. This play is a TD for Howard, but the throw and TD is created by misdirection and confusion guarding one of the best WRs in College Football.
There is a big gap between the RB/WR positions and the QB/TE positions when it comes to looking at class depth and players particularly unlikely to start. I don’t like to go too deep into the QB class for fantasy because I would rather block out the noise. If I need to cover a player later, so be it. But most relevant draft picks at the QB position in particular are drafted to start. I was not initially planning on ranking Will Howard, and I’m not yet sure which call was correct for fantasy. I still lean towards Howard not being drafted with a real suggestion that he will be given a chance to start, but he is threatening to move above either Ewers or Milroe for a spot in my top 5 QBs, and ultimately my grades are not high enough on the middle QBs in particular to consider the gap particularly large between Howard and even Jaxson Dart. While there are some questions about how much his late season breakout was elevated by the surrounding talent, Howard still had to execute at a high enough proportion to lead one of the most difficult 4-game stretches we’ve ever seen in College Football due to the new format for the CFB Playoff. On top of that, while no one will tie Howard to acclaim like Ewers’ prospect appeal and elite arm talent, Howard’s size and general mobility might make him the QB we should actually be looking at as having higher functional potential at the NFL level. Howard is now more confidently a Day 2 prospective grade on my board, though unless he starts to get more significant buzz than I have been expecting, I do not believe he will be going any higher than Day 2.
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Thanks all,
C.J.
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